Eric Berger

Good morning. Northern parts of the metro area may be clipped by fast-moving thunderstorms this morning—Conroe and areas north—but by far the biggest story of the day will be heat. The National Weather Service has issued a “heat advisory,” indicating that the heat index will reach 106 to 111 degrees. This essentially means that the temperature in the shade, when factoring in humidity, will feel much warmer than the actual temperature in the mid- to upper-90s. If you’re in the sunshine, the effect will be even more pronounced.

Thursday

Aside from the heat, and partly sunny skies on Thursday, southerly winds may gust up to 20 mph across the area, reflecting higher pressures to the south and lower pressures over the continental United States. These winds are not reflected in the heat advisory temperature above, but may provide some limited cooling despite the high humidity today. All in all, however, it will be a hot summer day in Houston, with highs ranging from the mid- to upper-90s. The other notable factor will be nighttime temperatures that likely don’t fall below 80 degrees on Thursday night or the next few nights.

Friday

This will be another warm and windy day, although highs probably will top out in the lower to mid-90s. Skies will be partly sunny.

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Houston has enjoyed some moderately cooler weather over the last week or so, and the official high temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport has not risen to 95 degrees or above since June 9. Well, it’s about time to go back into the frying pan. Also, if you missed Matt’s tropical update on Tuesday, I encourage you to check it out, as it provides an overview of what we’re looking at over the next few weeks.

Wednesday

Highs today should be in the mid-90s with lots of sunshine. The atmosphere remains fairly moist, so it will be quite humid as well. Looking further afield, strong thunderstorms are possible in the Dallas-Fort Worth area later today or tonight, along with supercells that could produce tornadoes. Conditions are not perfect for such storms, but there’s an “enhanced” environment according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. So if you’re traveling north today, bear that in mind.

This line of storms should sag south tonight, but forecast modeling indicates that it will peter out as it moves into counties well north of Houston, and likely die completely before reaching Montgomery County. Mostly, the Houston area can just expect a partly cloudy, warm night with low temperatures only falling to around degrees. That’s downright sultry.

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Monday marked the first time in more than three weeks that the high temperature in Houston did not reach at least 90 degrees, but now we’ll put our brief flirtation with somewhat cooler behind us as high pressure begins to build over the area today. Perhaps the biggest question about the forecast from now through the end of the work week is whether highs in the days ahead will reach the mid- or upper-90s.

Also, be on the lookout later today for a tropical update from Matt. There is nothing imminent, but we want to keep readers apprised of what we’re thinking and seeing as we look ahead over the next week or two in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. When we get into July, we probably will begin posting these on a weekly basis, and then probably more frequently during the peak periods of August and early September.

Tuesday

There isn’t much movement in the atmosphere today, which means that despite a fairly moist atmosphere any shower development should be scattered at best. High resolution models are indicating the best chances for rain may come down near Matagorda Bay, or to the northeast of the Houston metro area. In any case, for the most part we should see a mostly sunny day with highs in the low- to mid-90s.

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Overnight rains and storms—there were definitely some impressive lightning displays late Sunday and early Monday—have largely moved to the coast and offshore. Most of the region saw 1 to 3 inches from Sunday through this morning although a few locations, including parts of Montgomery County, saw totals of nearly 4 inches. One benefit of Sunday night’s storms is significantly cooler weather this morning, with rain-cooled lows in the upper 60s for much of Houston. Enjoy this while it lasts.

Monday

The atmosphere is pretty worked over, so although some light rains will be possible today, we’re unlikely to see any real storm activity except near the coast (seas offshore are choppy, to say the least). With lingering clouds, however, temperatures today may only rise into the mid-80s for most of the region. Houston has reached 90 degrees every day so far this month, so that would offer a nice reprieve from the summertime heat we’ve been experiencing. Skies should be partly cloudy tonight, with lows in the mid-70s.

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