Eric Berger

Relatively mild conditions are in place across Houston, but we’ll see a strong cooldown on Monday night, leading to a cooler first half of this week. After this front, however, winter will take a backseat for awhile. Houston should experience relatively warm conditions for the first week of February, with several days of highs in the 70s, and warm nights for this time of year in the upper 50s.

Monday

The patchy fog scattered across the region will soon dissipate this morning, giving way to a partly to mostly sunny day. Expect high temperatures of around 70 degrees for most of Houston, with increasing southerly winds—with gusts perhaps up to 20mph—during the afternoon hours as the onshore flow really gets going.

A cold front will push through the region tonight, bringing a broken line of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. The front should reach the College Station area between 6pm and 9pm, push through Houston between 8pm and 11pm, and move off the coast by around midnight. Light to moderate showers could linger behind the front for an hour or two, but drier (and colder) air should quickly move in after the front’s passage. Due to the overall atmospheric setup, and fast-moving nature of the front, I would not expect more than one- to two-tenths of an inch of rain for most.

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It has been a wet winter so far for most of Texas in general, and the Houston area in particular. December finished with about twice as much rain as normal for most of the region, and January is well ahead of normal as well. (The map below shows percent of normal rainfall for Texas over the last 60 days. Most of Houston has had 130 to 200 percent of typical amounts.) The reason I’m pointing this out is that, for the first time in awhile, the next 10 days look fairly dry—with only slight rain chances and slight rain accumulations.

This morning, temperatures range from the upper 20s for inland areas such as Conroe and Huntsville, to the upper 30s for areas along the coast such as Galveston and Palacios. In the city of Houston itself, temperatures are at, or just above the freezing level. High pressure, calm winds, and clear skies have allowed for ideal cooling overnight. We’ll now slowly warm up before another strong front next week.

Thursday and Friday

Expect mostly sunny to sunny conditions, with highs in the mid- to upper-50s. Lows for Thursday night will probably be about 5 degrees warmer than Wednesday night, and by Friday night most of the region should be in the low 40s.

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A strong cold front pushed through Houston shortly after midnight, and now temperatures have fallen into the upper 30s and lower 40s across the metro area. We’ll now return to a period of mostly colder weather for the rest of January, and early February, with additional cold fronts on the horizon.

Wednesday

While rain showers have not ended this morning, the activity is beginning to wind down as drier air moves in from the west. Overnight totals for most of Houston measured between 0.5 and 1.0 inch of rainfall, but some areas near Magnolia got 2.0 inches or more. This wasn’t enough to cause any major flooding problems, but it certainly made for a wet night. A wintry mix is now falling in a few areas near College Station and Brenham, but it is unlikely to get cold enough in Houston for sleet or snow before the precipitation ends this morning. That should occur between about 9am and noon, as the last rains move east.

Even with clearing skies, however, temperatures today will struggle to reach into the upper 40s, and with a northerly wind gusting up to 20mph this will certainly be a chilly day across the region. Under clear skies, lows tonight will likely stay at or just above freezing for most of the Houston metro area.

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Temperatures have only fallen down to around 60 degrees for most of Houston this morning, and we’ll have one more warmer day today before cooler weather returns with a front tonight, and lasts for the rest of this week.

Tuesday

Highs today should generally get up to around 70 degrees, with mostly cloudy skies keeping them from getting much higher. Winds will be blowing out of the south today, increasing moisture levels ahead of a cold front tonight. Although scattered showers will be possible during the daytime, by far the best chance of rain will come tonight with a line of precipitation along the front. The front should reach areas northwest of Houston between 9pm and midnight, roll through Houston sometime between 11am and 2am, and should be off the coast by or before sunrise Wednesday. At this time, accumulations of 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rainfall are likely.

It should be noted that some models have been hinting at the possibility of snow or sleet for areas northwest of Houston, such as the Brazos Valley, with this system. However it seems most probable that the colder air needed for wintry precipitation will lag far enough behind the precipitation to preclude this. Can’t rule it out, but it seems doubtful. The chance of seeing anything like this in Houston itself is pretty near zero.

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