Eric Berger

The return of heavy rains, and some despair, to Houston

Heavy rains returned to Houston on Monday evening for the first time since Hurricane Harvey. And these weren’t just light rains (as we’d forecast), but a real deluge for some areas. Sims Bayou along 288, for example, collected nearly three inches of rain between 7pm and 8pm. In some neighborhoods flooded by Harvey, where people had put possessions and drywall and other flood debris on the street, trash piles floated away like flotsam in running water. The rains fell. Lightning crashed all around. Psychologically, it was hard to handle. Could it be happening again?

Rainfall accumulations on Monday. (NOAA)

But this time, they ended. As we heal our homes, Houston, don’t forget to heal your minds as well. Harvey and its like will not return again soon. More pleasant fall weather, with a drier atmosphere, will come within a couple of weeks.

Today

Although moisture levels remain fairly high today, most of the high-resolution forecast modeling indicates that storms won’t be nearly as widespread today, nor as intense. The radar, at 6:30am CT, also shows less coverage offshore than on Monday morning. For this reason I’m anticipating fewer problems this afternoon and evening. Again, as these storms are driven to some extent by the sea breeze and daytime heating, they should ebb again as the Sun goes does. Expect highs near 90 degrees.

Wednesday and Thursday

In the absence of high pressure, a similar pattern will prevail across the Houston metro area, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be intense, but because there should be no large-scale, organized activity we don’t anticipate flooding problems. Even after Monday’s heaviest rains, area bayous are near, or at normal levels.

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And … the heavy rains are back in Houston

With high pressure moving out of the area after nearly three weeks of dry weather, copious amounts of pent-up atmospheric moisture broke out into thunderstorms over parts of Houston today. A few areas west of downtown received 2 to 3 inches of rainfall. Admittedly, some of these storms were stronger than expected, as atmospheric moisture levels surged this afternoon.

This has prompted the Houston/Galveston office of the National Weather Service to issue an “areal flood advisory” for Monday evening, through 8:45pm CT for the following areas:

Flood advisory in effect through 8:45pm CT. (National Weather Service)

This is not a particularly high level of threat, but storms in the indicated areas could generate some minor flooding this evening. These storms should subside by or before sunset, with the loss of daytime heating.

A similar pattern is possible Tuesday, although at this time we don’t expect the storms to be quite so intense.

Some rain chances finally return to Houston, as tropics sizzle

For Houston, the first half of September has been quite pleasant—with average temperatures running about 4 degrees below normal thanks to an early season cold front. Alas, the second half of the month probably will end up a few degrees above normal, as it doesn’t look like we’ll see another cold front for another 10 to 12 days, at least. Rain chances also return to the area after a long break.

Monday

Today brings the region its best rain chances since Hurricane Harvey departed the area nearly three weeks ago as atmospheric moisture levels rise, and high pressure abates some. I don’t think this means more than scattered showers later today, but some areas could pick up a few tenths of an inch of rain. Highs in the low 90s.

Tuesday through Thursday

A more or less similar pattern continues with a moist atmosphere, and some moderate atmospheric disturbances pulsing through the area. This will lead to partly sunny days, with perhaps 40 to 50 percent of the area seeing light to moderate rain showers each day. Again, these are nothing to be concerned about from a flooding perspective, and area lawns and trees will be grateful. Highs around 90 degrees.

Most of Houston may see about one-half inch of rain, or so, through Saturday. (NOAA/Weather Bell)

Friday through the weekend

High pressure may build back near the area, but probably not right on top of Houston. This may scale back rain showers a bit, but a chance will remain as high temperatures remain consistent near 90 degrees. In other words, this week’s weather probably won’t change much through the weekend.

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Atlantic tropics still hot, but no immediate Gulf threats

Welcome to the weekend! Some rain chances will return to Houston later on Sunday, and most days next week. But it’s nothing we’re concerned about. In response to a number of questions about the tropics, however, we wanted to provide an update on all of the activity out there. We have a lot of it in the Atlantic.

As we get deeper into September, the Atlantic tropics remain active. (NOAA/Space City Weather)

Hurricane Jose

This storm, which has been waggling around the tropical Atlantic for days, finally is beginning to follow a track—and this track may eventually lead to some tropical effects for the East coast. Here’s a look at the European model ensemble forecast for the center of Jose on Wednesday morning, which shows a fairly large tropical storm or hurricane moving up the east coast, but offshore, early next week.

European model Hurricane Jose position forecast for Wednesday morning. (Weather Bell)

Most of the model guidance suggests the storm will turn northeast by around Tuesday or Wednesday, and this would keep the center away from Long Island and Boston, Mass. Right now for those locations I’d expect some gusty conditions and swells, but nothing too significant. Some areas of Boston and Cape Cod could see 2 to 4 inches of rain, but again, nothing too extreme.

If the track for Jose moves west and brings the center to shore, and the storm becomes stronger than forecast, its effects could become more concerning.

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