Eric Berger

Atlantic tropics still hot, but no immediate Gulf threats

Welcome to the weekend! Some rain chances will return to Houston later on Sunday, and most days next week. But it’s nothing we’re concerned about. In response to a number of questions about the tropics, however, we wanted to provide an update on all of the activity out there. We have a lot of it in the Atlantic.

As we get deeper into September, the Atlantic tropics remain active. (NOAA/Space City Weather)

Hurricane Jose

This storm, which has been waggling around the tropical Atlantic for days, finally is beginning to follow a track—and this track may eventually lead to some tropical effects for the East coast. Here’s a look at the European model ensemble forecast for the center of Jose on Wednesday morning, which shows a fairly large tropical storm or hurricane moving up the east coast, but offshore, early next week.

European model Hurricane Jose position forecast for Wednesday morning. (Weather Bell)

Most of the model guidance suggests the storm will turn northeast by around Tuesday or Wednesday, and this would keep the center away from Long Island and Boston, Mass. Right now for those locations I’d expect some gusty conditions and swells, but nothing too significant. Some areas of Boston and Cape Cod could see 2 to 4 inches of rain, but again, nothing too extreme.

If the track for Jose moves west and brings the center to shore, and the storm becomes stronger than forecast, its effects could become more concerning.

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Summer lite returns to Houston, and it will remain awhile

Nine years ago today, Hurricane Ike made landfall along the northern end of Galveston Island. Of a hurricane’s three major threats—damaging winds, storm surge, and inland flooding—Ike’s greatest damage came from its surge along the coast. In the nearly decade since then, we’ve done nothing to mitigate the problem of surge. It would be a great shame if we make the same mistake with regard to inland flooding after Hurricane Harvey.

An aerial photo of damage in Gilchrist, Texas, after Ike. (FEMA)

Now, onto the forecast.

Wednesday through Friday

Southerly winds are back, and with it comes increased humidity and warmer nights. Overnight lows this morning are nearly 10 degrees warmer than just 24 hours ago. We won’t see too much of a difference in high temperatures over the next several days, with the mercury climbing to about 90 degrees or so. But it will feel warmer, given the increased moisture and humidity. This is more typical weather for September.

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End of Texas tropics season may be near as Houston warms back up

Well, it has been a busy few weeks in the tropics with hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Katia, and now Jose meandering around the Atlantic Ocean. (Speaking of Jose and its track forecast, while the 75-mph storm may move back toward the US East Coast this weekend or early next week, as of right now it most likely will stay offshore). Perhaps not surprisingly, the Atlantic season reached its “peak” of activity on Sunday. As you can see, however, a good bit of activity historically continues into early November.

Graphic showing frequency of hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean. (National Hurricane Center)

But for Texas it’s a different story. I am not ready to declare an end to the Texas hurricane season, but long-time readers will recall that after Sept. 24th the chance of a hurricane hitting the state are historically quite low. Moreover, forecast models show little to no tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico for at least the next week or 10 days. So we’re getting close to that date, and after Hurricane Harvey we’ve certainly had enough of the tropics for awhile. I’ll post later this month when I think we’re all clear on the tropics front.

Now let’s take a look at our forecast for the next week.

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Do you miss the rain yet, Houston?

For Houston, Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall ended on Tuesday, August, 29. A few parts of the region have seen some light showers since then, but essentially it has been bone dry for the last 12 days. This has been exactly what the doctor ordered in terms of recovery from what likely will be the costliest natural disaster in US history. And the low humidity has been nice too. Yet already, our soils are starting to dry out. So when is the rain going to return? The short answer is not soon.

Houston got a lot of rainfall during Harvey, and then it has stopped. (National Weather Service)

Today

For most area school districts, this morning represents a second “back to school” day, and we will have fine weather, with lows this morning in the 60s, and highs today in the mid- to upper-80s.

Tuesday

We’re going to have one more really nice fall-like day on Tuesday, with lows generally in the low 60s across the area and some really nice, dry air blowing in from the northwest. Highs will be in the upper 80s. Savor the mornings, because change is coming.

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