Eric Berger

In the wake of Tuesday evening’s front, it’s a fairly quiet forecast for Houston over the next several days with no real extreme weather ahead—just some sunshine, a little bit of rain, and mostly cooler but not particularly cold temperatures over the next seven days. We’re also continuing to track the forecast for Houston Marathon, which has the potential to be pretty great, but also a steamy mess.

Wednesday

With high pressure moving into place over Houston, we’ll see a pleasant day, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-60s. Light northeasterly winds will be bringing additional dry air into the region today, and with partly cloudy skies tonight we should see temperatures drop down to near 40 degrees in most of the city.

Thursday

Winds will shift to come from the east on Thursday, and the mixing in of some clouds should help to limit high temperatures to about 60 degrees. This will probably be a day when you want a light jacket. Overnight temperatures Thursday will be a bit warmer, with mostly cloudy skies keeping most of the region in the mid- to upper-40s.

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Good morning. Today’s likely our last day as warm as the mid-70s for quite some time, as we should see a couple of fronts over the next week that will limit our high temperatures. We’re not going to see any temperatures too cold either, so there should be no concerns about freezes.

Tuesday

The warmer temperatures this morning—upper 50s to low 60s across most of the region—are contributing to the development of some fog over inland areas. This should clear before 9am. Partly sunny skies should help temperatures reach the mid- or even upper-70s this afternoon before a cold front pushes through the region later this afternoon and early evening.

This is likely to be a dry frontal passage due to a capping inversion, or warmer air aloft that limits the ability of air at the surface to rise. Cooler and drier air will follow the front, with lows tonight in the low 50s for most of Houston.

Wednesday and Thursday

Winter-like temperatures return. Look for highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s, with mostly sunny skies on Wednesday and some returning clouds on Thursday.

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Apologies if you could not care less about the marathon, which will take place on Sunday, Jan. 20, in downtown Houston and nearby roadways. However, for the tens of thousands of people who have trained over the last four months (yours truly, included) the weather for that morning is of profound importance. Anything too warm—for me that’s above 55 degrees—and it’s going to be a long, long day. After today’s post, I’ll append a short marathon outlook at the bottom of the daily updates.

Before jumping into the forecast, let me set some expectations. Until about 10 days before the race, we can’t have much confidence in the forecast. We can set some constraints, but not much more than that. From 7 to 10 days we can glean some better insight from the ensemble models, and then about a week out we can begin to have some confidence in the overall forecast. Alright, enough caveats!

For this week, we’re going to see a front later on Tuesday, and then another one in the Friday-Saturday timeframe (that one may yield 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain). After this front, the first half of next week (Jan. 13 to 15) looks fairly cool, with highs in the 50s perhaps. Monday or Tuesday of next week would be ideal to run the marathon on. After this, it looks like we’ll see a warm-up by the middle of next week, with highs in the 70s perhaps.

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Good morning. It’s uncharacteristically warm for early January, but it appears that after Tuesday we’ll return to more seasonable weather for the mid-January period with highs generally in the 60s, and lows in the 40s or 50s. Rain chances return Friday, but there’s nothing too extreme in the forecast at all over at least the next week or 10 days. Also, if you’re interested in the Houston Marathon (which will take place on January 20), we’ll have our debut forecast later today.

Monday

High temperatures on Sunday reached the low 70s for most of the region, and they should again be that warm today, with slight southerly winds. Skies will be mostly cloudy, which should help put an upper limit on temperatures. As cloudy skies continue into tonight, we probably will only see lows down in the low 60s for most of Houston once again, and with the warmer air we could see some fog on Tuesday morning.

Tuesday

This will be another warm day, with highs under mostly cloudy skies likely reaching the low- to mid-70s. These warm and humid conditions will continue until later in the day, or early evening, as a cold front slides through Houston. Right now the dynamics with this front don’t appear to produce a significant chance of rain—maybe 10 or 20 percent for the region. Lows Tuesday night should generally fall into the 50s.

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