Eric Berger

Good morning. We’ll have one more mild day before a potentially stormy Wednesday and Wednesday night, which will herald the arrival of a cold front. This front will then usher in a very fine spring weekend for Houston, with mostly sunny skies extending through the Easter holiday.

Tuesday

Temperatures have fallen to near 60 degrees this morning, but we’ll warm up pretty quickly under partly sunny skies. Highs today will reach about 80, and perhaps a bit higher where sunshine is more consistent into the afternoon hours. The other feature of note will be strong southerly winds, which could gust above 20mph. Conditions Tuesday night will be warm and muggy, with temperatures unlikely to fall below 70 degrees for most of the region, and cloudy skies.

Wednesday through Thursday morning

A storm system will move across the state of Texas on Wednesday, and Wednesday night, and Houston will lie along the southern periphery of the main action. We’re in the middle of spring storm season, and this front may deliver a combination of heavy rainfall, hail, and possibly even damaging winds. However, the dynamics for these heavy rains are more favorable for central Texas than closer to the coast, and that’s reflected in NOAA’s storm outlook:

The bottom line is that we’ll see a chance of showers on Wednesday, with the best rain chances after midnight Wednesday, and early on Thursday morning. Rain accumulations for Houston likely will be somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 inches, with the higher-end totals more likely for areas north of Interstate 10.

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After Saturday’s storms, and then the blustery cold front, Houston will see a lot of sunshine. Then we’ll see another front Thursday, which should hopefully set us up for a mostly sunny holiday weekend. We can be pretty confident in this point in a rain-free Easter, at least as confident as one can be six days out.

Monday

Today should be a rather pleasant day for the region, with sunny skies, and highs around 80 degrees. South winds will pick up a bit today, so the drier air we saw this weekend will give way to rising humidity. Lows tonight will be down around 60 degrees—warmer along the coast and a bit cooler inland. One concern: Today is an ozone action day for Houston, when high levels of ozone pollution are possible.

Tuesday

As southerly winds return, we’ll see an increase in clouds on Tuesday, although the sunshine won’t go away entirely. Southerly winds will be noticeable, likely picking up to 15 to 20mph, and this increasing moisture will set the stage for some rain showers later in the week. Highs Tuesday will depend upon the extent of sunshine over your location, but probably will be in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Lows Tuesday night, as clouds build and with the influx of warmer air, are unlikely to fall much below 70.

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After two almost summer-like days, Houston’s temperature will now take a bit if a step back toward spring. Looking ahead to the weekend, Saturday still looks messy, but Sunday sure should be fine. Plan your activities accordingly.

Thursday

Temperatures are quite warm this morning, with lows only getting down to around 70 degrees for much of the region. Partly cloudy skies and the approach of a weak cold front will help to moderate temperatures today, likely keeping them in the low- to mid-80s. The front should stall somewhere between downtown and the coast this afternoon, and could serve briefly as a focus for scattered, light showers south and east of Highway 59. Lows tonight will get into the 50s for areas well inland tonight, and 60s closer to the coast.

Friday

A partly sunny day, with highs likely in the low- to mid-80s. Any remnant of the front will be blown away by the onshore flow later in the day, setting up another warm night. The moisture will help drive rain showers on Saturday.

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Houston did, in fact, reach 90 degrees on Tuesday for the first time this year. It’s about the right time for this milestone—although last year was nice in that the city didn’t get this warm until May 7. If it didn’t feel that hot outside, the reason is that humidity levels were quite low for Houston. That probably won’t be the case when 90-degree temperatures come rolling around again for us. Anyway, today should be warm again, but then we’ll cool down for the weekend.

Wednesday

Winds have already shifted to come from the south, and this will make for a more humid day. The increased moisture levels should also act as an anchor on warming today, so I’d expect most areas to stay in the mid- or possibly upper-80s beneath mostly sunny skies. Winds will be gusty, perhaps above 20mph, as the onshore flow kicks in. Lows tonight will probably fall into the mid-60s for most.

Thursday

Some clouds will return Thursday, but the day’s high temperatures will largely be determined by the timing of a weak cold front, which probably will push into the city sometime around noon. Depending on how much warming there is before the front, temperatures will either get into the low-80s, or the upper-80s. Most likely this will be a dry front, although we can’t rule out a very few showers as its pushes through the region. Lows should fall to 60 on Thursday night.

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