Eric Berger

We knew rain and scattered storms were returning to Houston, but frankly we didn’t think they’d come this soon. However, a relatively localized feature, a kink in the atmosphere, is moving up the Texas coast today and it’s driving the development of some storms primarily to the south and southeast of Houston. A few areas are seeing pea and dime-sized hail as a result.

The regional models we use to predict the evolution of these kinds of storms haven’t done a great job of handling their development today, but generally I think they’re going to wane by or before sunset.

The overall forecast remains the same through mid-week, with widespread showers late Monday night and Tuesday producing perhaps 0.25 to 0.5 inch of rain, and more scattered showers on Wednesday. Some additional hail will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms on Tuesday.

After a stunning Sunday, we’ll now see the return of some clouds today, and as early as tonight some healthy rain chances. Most of this week looks pretty gray, although there’s a chance of sunshine toward the Friday or Saturday period. Unfortunately, the forecast from Thursday on is fairly uncertain at this point.

Monday

Skies remain somewhat clear this morning for parts of Houston, and we’ll see at least partly sunny skies for most of today, as highs warm into the mid-60s across Houston. However, change will be on the way as the high pressure system overhead moves away, and winds begin to return from the east and southeast. With this returning moisture, a few scattered showers will be possible near the coast this afternoon and early evening.

Rodeo forecast

Every weekday for the next three weeks, we’re going to offer Rodeo outlooks for people going to the concert. (Tonight, I’ll be among them, as Mrs. Space City Weather is a big Kasey Musgraves fan.) We’ll see temperatures of about 60 degrees at 6pm, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and 10mph easterly winds. We can’t entirely rule out rain chances, but they’re probably around 10 percent for central Houston. After the show, temperatures will still be in the upper 50s, but the chance of scattered showers will be better, probably closer to 30 percent. Any rain should be light.

Tuesday

This looks like a wet and gray day. Highs will get into the mid- to upper-60s, and the combination of warmer air, low pressure, and ample moisture should lead to on- and off-again (mostly) light to moderate rain showers. All told, accumulations for most should be well under one-half inch, but a some areas may see a bit more. We also can’t rule out a few pockets of hail. The healthy rain chances should persist into Tuesday night, when lows for most won’t fall below 60.

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As high pressure has scooted east of the area, low pressure has returned, and along with it plenty of moisture that will fall as rain the next few days. Rain chances will remain above 50 percent through Saturday, before a front arrives to bring us some much nicer weather—we still anticipate an outstanding second half of the weekend.

Thursday

Rains developed offshore late Wednesday, and have moved into coastal areas this morning. So far amounts have been more than manageable, with about one-quarter inch the maximum amount. But this surge of low-level moisture and low pressure will nonetheless make for a wet and gray day, with highs struggling to reach 60 degrees. Most of the area likely will not see more than one-quarter to one-half inch of rain. With the southerly flow, temperatures Thursday night will not fall much as on-and-off mostly light to moderate showers continue.

Friday

Friday will be warmer, with cloudy skies, and highs in the 70s. With more moisture moving in Friday, we can expect more come-and-go rain showers. Again, there should be no real concerns with accumulations, as this will be just another gray, wet, albeit warmer day in Houston. The greater rain accumulations—one inch or more—should occur well to the north and northeast of the region. Lows Friday night may not fall below 70 along the coast, and probably will only drop into the upper 60s for the city.

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A cold front pushed through the region Tuesday night, and this should give us a brief bit of drier air and sunshine today before clouds and intermittent light rain return for the rest of the week. The next nice day should come Sunday before rain chances return on—you guessed it—Monday.

Wednesday

It’s chilly this morning, with lows in the mid-40s, and cloudy skies. However, as drier air moves in from the west we’ll see some clearing skies and this afternoon should be pretty nice with partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the mid-60s. This should last about through this evening as high pressure exits to the east, and low pressure returns. This will lead to an influx of moisture, clouds and rising rain chances tonight.

Thursday

As the image above shows, moisture will return rapidly, with drier air Wednesday giving way to moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Thursday across the region, but for most accumulations should be a few tenths of an inch of rain, or less. Highs will be around 60 under leaden skies.

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