Eric Berger

Overall, not a whole lot has changed since this morning’s update. Even so, we wanted to provide the latest information we have. We’re still watching for the potential of heavy rainfall beginning late tonight, through most of Labor Day; and then the eventual movement of what is likely to become Tropical Storm Gordon into the Gulf of Mexico later this week. While things can change, at this point we don’t anticipate anything too extreme for southeast Texas. This isn’t Harvey. It isn’t Allison. Most likely it’s just some heavy, tropical rains that the region can handle. If our thinking changes, we will most certainly let you know.

Labor Day rainfall

The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch from midnight tonight through 7pm Monday. Given the slow-moving nature of a low-pressure system moving from the northern Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas coast, and through the region on Monday, we can probably expect widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 to 6 inches (more likely closer to the coast, and the eastern half of the region).

For the most part, these rains should be the kinds that lead to street flooding in hard hit areas, but we don’t expect any significant or widespread creek and bayou flooding. I always hesitate to write that with these kinds of air masses, which can produce a lot of rain in a very short time, but as of now there is no strong signal for an extreme rainfall event for Houston.

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In regard to rainfall and the Houston metro area, we have two separate issues to discuss. There is the potential for heavy rainfall on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday; and then the renewed potential for heavy rain toward next weekend, as a tropical disturbance—perhaps Tropical Storm Gordon—brings rainfall to the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

Labor Day Weekend

A weak low pressure system over southern Louisiana and the northern Gulf of Mexico will drift westward over the next few days, bringing an excellent chance of rain to the Houston metro area on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. The National Weather Service will issue a “Flash Flood Watch,” and there is a general expectation of 1 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated areas seeing as much as 8 inches. The best chance for heavy rainfall will come on Sunday night, and throughout Labor Day. If you have travel plans on Monday, please to check conditions before venturing out. For the most part we expect street flooding, but can’t rule out some more serious effects in areas where the storms establish themselves and don’t really move.

We have reasonable confidence that after this system clears the area, we should see somewhat drier conditions on Wednesday and Thursday for Houston, with partly sunny skies and more scattered showers. Which is a good thing, because …

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Houston continues to face the prospect of a wet Labor Day Weekend—but we’re not concerned about anything more than the potential for some street flooding and spoiled outdoor barbecues with intermittent showers and thunderstorms.

However, we did want to update you on the potential for tropical mischief in the Gulf of Mexico next week. Some forecast models have become a little more bullish on low pressure forming in the northern Gulf next week, which could lead to development of a tropical storm. As of Saturday morning, the National Hurricane Center predicts a 40 percent chance that a tropical depression or storm will form during the next five days.

There are a lot of uncertainties with this system, and forecast models are having a difficult time resolving them. Of course, everyone will want to know where this will go. However, that’s simply impossible to say without a reasonably well defined low pressure system, and that probably won’t exist for a couple of days.

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