Eric Berger

It’s a rather humid morning outside—almost, but not quite summer-like with lows of only about 70 degrees—that offers prelude for the potential heavy rain and thunderstorms on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Our weekend forecast still looks quite pleasant for late April.

Tuesday

A somewhat disturbed atmosphere may lead to scattered showers during the daytime hours for Houston, but any accumulations will be slight. Skies will be mostly cloudy regardless, and this should help keep a check on temperatures, limiting them to the upper 70s or 80 degrees. Tuesday night should be another warm and humid affair for the region.

Wednesday and Thursday

Much of Wednesday should be similar to Tuesday, with a 20 to 30 percent chance of rain area wide, but things will change Wednesday night and Thursday morning, as a large line of showers and thunderstorms sweeps through the region from west to east. Right now, it appears as though this line of storms will push through between around midnight and sunrise, dropping between 0.5 to 2.0 inches of rain for most people, but we can’t rule out some isolated areas of 3 inches or a bit more.

There is the possibility of some severe weather in the form of hail and thunderstorms, but atmospheric conditions will favor this more to the west and southwest of Houston (as shown in the forecast map from NOAA above), rather than over the metro area itself. Depending on the timing of this system, which is still subject to change, the worst of it could be over before Thursday morning’s commute begins, or the storms could still be moving though—let’s hope for the former. A few scattered, light showers remain possible later in the day on Thursday.

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After several weeks this spring when the gorgeous weather fell during the weekdays, and storms on the weekends, Mother Nature got things right for Easter weekend with wall-to-wall sunshine, moderate temperatures and mostly mild winds. After the potential for some storms this week, sunshine should return next weekend, although it will be somewhat warmer as we edge closer to summer. (I hate to say it, but it would not surprise me if this was the last truly spring-like weekend of the season).

Monday

Today will be a day of transition, with a gusty southerly wind bringing moisture back inland. Still, I expect at least partly sunny skies, and this should allow high temperatures to reach about 80 degrees. Tonight will be warm, with most of the city in the mid- to upper-60s under cloudy skies.

Tuesday

Clouds will largely cover Houston’s skies on Tuesday, and there will be enough moisture for some light rain showers, but I’d peg chances at only around 20 percent. High temperatures will depend on whether any sunshine peeks through during the afternoon hours, but we’ll probably see the mercury reach about 80 degrees again. It will be another warm night.

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Storms are rolling through Houston this morning, along a front that will bring intermittent thunderstorms. The primary concern during the morning hours, until about noon, will be brief periods of heavy rainfall—but we don’t anticipate any severe weather such as hail or tornadoes. Some areas of west Houston have received as much as 1 inch of rain as of 5:45am this morning, and an additional 0.25 to 0.75 inch is possible this morning. Very briefly flooded streets are the only real concern. High resolution models show this system clearing from 9am to noon, from west to east, across Houston.

Thursday

Today will be a day of two parts. After this morning’s showers and thunderstorms, we’ll see strong, northwesterly winds move into the region from the west that could gust up to 25 mph this afternoon. Skies should clear out, and depending on how much sunshine the area receives, highs could get up to around 80 degrees. Conditions tonight should be breezy, with mostly clear skies, and highs generally in the 50s across Houston. Winds again will be the story, with gusts perhaps up to 30mph, especially for coastal areas.

Friday

This will be a sunny, breezy, cool (for April) day with high temperatures likely in the mid-70s. We could see some wind gusts during the afternoon hours in the 20-25 mph range, but otherwise the weather should be splendid, with dry northerly air. Lows Friday night may fall into the upper 40s for well inland areas, but likely will be around 50 for most of the area.

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Good morning. Conditions are almost summer-like this morning, with lows coming down only into the low-70s for much of the region, with dewpoints not far behind. Southerly winds, too, are pumping moisture inland to set up the potential for storms late tonight and Thursday morning, and we’ve got full details below. Easter weekend also continues too look good, weather-wise.

Wednesday

Today will be a mostly cloudy affair, with highs perhaps getting up to around 80 degrees for most of the region with lots of humidity. Houston should see some scattered showers later this afternoon, but they’re likely to be of the light-to-moderate variety as the atmosphere won’t be ready to break open just yet. South and southeast winds will blow all day, gusting at times to around 20 mph.

Wednesday night and Thursday

A line of severe weather will develop before midnight to the west of the Interstate 35 corridor, and progress eastward across the state on Thursday morning. For areas west of Houston (and Katy) and north of Houston (and The Woodlands) chances are that some of these storms will hold together to present a threat of heavy rainfall, and perhaps some hail. But a fairly strong capping inversion should hold over the metro region itself, and the effect should be a breaking of the line of thunderstorms as it near the Houston region around sunrise. Here’s how the NAM forecast model depicts the “line” of storms at 8am Thursday.

The bottom line is that conditions will be fine today and likely this evening for the Houston region, with just some scattered showers. The bigger concern will come around sunrise on Thursday, in the midst of rush hour, with the potential for strong thunderstorms. For now we think Houston will see some downpours at that time, but nothing too severe that lasts too long. Accumulations close to 0.5 inch are likely near the coast, with perhaps 1.5 inches of rain for inland areas like The Woodlands. We’ll have a comprehensive post up by 6:30am CT Thursday with the latest.

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