Friday, 7:30am CT—As widespread recovery efforts continue across the Houston area, we expect Mother Nature to aid the region in its recovery over the next several days. Amidst the terrible storm, one thing we failed to notice that fall is right around the corner. Well, it’s basically here!
Friday and Saturday
Nice, mostly sunny days, with highs of around 90 degrees. The chance of rain is near zero, and nighttimes should continue to be pleasantly cool—lower 70s—for this time of year.
Sunday through Tuesday
As some moisture returns into Houston from the Gulf of Mexico, we should see an increase in clouds, from a few scattered clouds on Sunday to partly to mostly cloudy skies on Labor Day. This will bring some decent rain chances to the area, especially on Labor Day and Tuesday. But at this time we remain pretty confident that we’ll be measuring accumulations in tenths of an inch rather an inches themselves. Clouds should keep highs in the upper 80s.
Dewpoint map for next Wednesday, at noon, shows the GFS model forecast for the cold front location as it moves southeast. (Weather Bell)
Thursday, 3:30pm CT—I hope everyone is enjoying the pleasant weather. At mid-afternoon the temperature in Houston is 90 degrees, with 45 percent humidity and mostly sunny skies. It is hard to beat this for the end of August. With that said, we wanted to provide a quick look at three tropical systems of interest because there’s been some chatter and concerns about them.
(National Hurricane Center)
Yellow blob near Texas
When we see low pressure systems in the Gulf at this time of year, normally we’re pretty nervous. However a cold front seems likely to move into Texas next week (reaching Houston perhaps by Thursday), and this should keep any tropical mischief south of the upper Texas coast. At this time we do not have major concerns about heavy rainfall next week, although we’ll continue to monitor the forecast. What we are doing is starting to get excited about the season’s first cold front, arriving about two weeks early (if it does in fact make it through).
Houston’s fine weather will continue for the next several days—it’s difficult to believe we’re at the end of August—before some rain chances return. This post will discuss two potential tropical threats (neither of which we’re particularly concerned about at this time) and the increasing likelihood of the region’s first cool front next week.
Thursday through Sunday
Expect perfectly benign, sunny conditions, with highs of around 90 degrees, lows in the lower 70s, and light winds. The overnight lows are courtesy of drier air moving in on the backside of Harvey as it lifts into the Midwest over the next couple of days. Onshore winds resume by the weekend, and there’s perhaps a slight chance of showers on Sunday, but nothing to be concerned about from a flooding standpoint.
According to TxDot and its continually updated map, more roads are opening around Houston as the bayous drain, but plenty of roads remains closed to the southwest and northeast of the city.
Labor Day and Tuesday
By late this weekend, a low pressure system may move into the southern Gulf of Mexico, and the National Hurricane Center says it has a 20 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm or depression over the next five days. Some people on social media have been expressing concern about this storm, but we remain pretty confident it won’t be a significant threat to the hard-hit Texas coast. It’s worth noting that the GFS model (which had been bringing a lot of rain into Houston next week) has now backed way off. See how far the ensemble run of the model keeps the low pressure system away from Texas.
Ensemble forecast from GFS model for tropical low locations next Wednesday night. (Weather Bell)
With that said, we do expect the return of some clouds and rain chances next week, beginning on Labor Day and probably running into Wednesday. Right now I’d say we’re looking at anywhere from a few tenths of an inch of rain to about an inch, most likely. If this forecast changes, we’ll of course let you know.
Wednesday, 2pm CT—Anyone who walked outside on Tuesday evening—and it sure did feel almost spiritual to see the sun, didn’t it?—surely also felt the comfortable temperatures outside. It was, in fact, amazingly cool during the height of Harvey. High temperatures on Sunday (77 degrees), Monday (74) and Tuesday (75) were uncharacteristic to say the least. They were, in fact, record setting.
I checked in with Brian Brettschneider (@climatologist49 on Twitter, and a fun follow), and he came up with the following table. In it, we can see that Monday’s high temperature tied August 25, 1966 as the coolest day in the entire month of August, in Houston, in more than 120 years of records. Tuesday’s high tied for third.
All time low maximum temperatures for August days in Houston. (Brian Brettschneider)
Brian believes the 1966 high temperature of 74 degrees was caused by an early cold front, with lower dewpoints, cloud cover, and an overcast day. This Monday’s cooler temperatures were, of course, caused by Harvey, which by that point was drawing northerly winds into Houston, and along with cooler air, this somewhat drier northerly air also allowed for evaporative cooling as the rains fell. This was the only nice thing about Harvey.
