Eric Berger

Three scenarios for Hurricane Irma and the United States

If you’re only interested in Houston weather, you can skip this post. We are not going to see much rain over the next 10 days, and temperatures will generally be pleasantly cool for early September. However, we’ve had a lot of requests from readers to continue coverage of Hurricane Irma, due to the significant threat it presents to the United States. (Already, with winds of 185-mph, the storm is the second-strongest in the Atlantic basin on record). So that’s what we will provide here.

Having looked at the forecast model guidance that has come out during the last two hours, the we can have pretty high confidence in the hurricane’s track through about Friday, when it will be in the vicinity of Turks and Caicos (a beautiful area, which I hope survives this storm). After that I want to highlight three possible scenarios, neither of which I have particularly high confidence in as so many unanswered questions remain: When does Irma find the western periphery of the Atlantic high pressure system and turn north? Does it turn northwest, due north, or northeast? And how much does the storm’s center interact with Cuba? All of these questions will have profound effects.

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Cold front coming, and Hurricane Irma reaches Cat. 5 status

A cold front remains on track to reach Houston on Wednesday, arriving a couple of weeks early to the region, and bringing some genuinely fall-like weather to the upper Texas coast. I’ll also discuss Hurricane Irma, because the storm has reached Category 5 status and almost certainly will have some devastating effects in the United States. We remain pretty confident the storm won’t have major effects for Texas, however.

Tuesday

We’ll still be pretty warm today, with highs in the low 90s across Houston, but for early September this is still decent weather. Houston could see some scattered showers later this afternoon, but for the most part we should be rain-free.

Wednesday

Cold front day! It’s almost like a holiday here in Houston. Moisture levels will increase a bit before the front moves through on Wednesday, most likely during the late morning or early afternoon hours. Some scattered showers are possible with the front—a few isolated areas could see as much as half an inch of rain—but for the most part this should be a breezy passage rather than one with thunder and lightning. Humidity should fall off a cliff after the front moves through, making for a pleasant evening.

Forecast map showing dewpoint temperatures on Wednesday morning. The front is almost to Houston. (Weather Bell)

Thursday through Sunday

We’ll have some great September weather after the front comes through, with highs generally in the mid- to upper-80s, overnight lows in the 60s (perhaps upper 50s for some inland areas and closer to 70 degrees along the coast). The drier air and full sunshine will feel fine.

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Labor Day Update: Irma, the Gulf, and more

Good morning. I hope everyone is finding some peace on Labor Day morning. Our short-term forecast remains more or less locked in for the Houston area, with warm-ish days through Wednesday (highs in the low 90s) before a cold front moves through and brings absolutely splendid weather for the second half of this week. We may see some decent rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the approaching front, but even so most areas probably won’t see more than about a tenth of an inch of rain (if that).

With that said, we’ve had a lot of questions about the tropics—understandably people are still pretty skittish after our brush with Hurricane Harvey. We get that. So here’s a review of what’s out there. Also, I’d like to remind everyone that while the Atlantic hurricane season officially lasts until Nov. 30, for Texas is effectively ends in about three or four weeks. We are almost there, folks.

Hurricane Irma

All eyes are on Irma, a major hurricane with sustained winds of 120mph moving toward the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. It should reach the vicinity of Puerto Rico by Wednesday night, and poses a significant threat to the Caribbean Islands. Here’s the latest (10am CT) track forecast from the National Hurricane Center.

10am CT track forecast. (National Hurricane Center)

Understandably there is a lot of concern about where the system goes in five to seven days, when it begins to approach Florida and the continental United States. There has been a westward movement in the forecast models over the last day or two, leading to some local concerns that the track may continue to shift westward toward a Texas landfall. We continue to remain pretty confident that is not going to happen.

With that said, the storm’s movement after about Thursday is fairly uncertain. Generally, the ensemble members of both the European and GFS models show the storm moving west-northwest just north of Cuba, and making a turn north just before reaching Florida, over Florida, or just after Florida (into the eastern Gulf of Mexico). Irma is expected to make this northern turn after it finds the western edge of a large ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic region, but at nearly a week from now it’s impossible to determine where that will be.

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Houston forecast: Little rain, and a wonderful cold front

Saturday, 8:00am CT—As Houston settles into Labor Day weekend, we offer just a quick forecast for the days ahead. For early September, quite frankly, we’re going to have spectacular weather.

Saturday through Labor Day

Because tropical moisture is now expected to remain well offshore this weekend, we’ve lowered rain chances to near zero—with just a chance of a few scattered, sea breeze showers during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies with highs around 90 degrees. Normally during Labor Day weekend highs are in the mid-90s with very warm and humid nights.

Tuesday and Wednesday

An approaching cool front may nudge rain chances up a bit, while keeping highs in the upper 80s with some partly cloudy skies. Even if it rains, accumulations should be measured in tenths of an inch, and present no threat.

Low temperature forecast for Thursday morning. (National Weather Service)

Thursday through Sunday

We remain confident in the arrival of a cool front on Wednesday, which should bring wonderfully cool weather to the region for early September. We expect highs in the low- to mid-80s through most of the weekend, and overnight lows in the low 60s for inland areas, and upper 60s near the coast. The drier air will feel heavenly.

Tropics

No concerns for Texas at this time. We are now fairly confident that Hurricane Irma will turn northward before it can move into the Gulf of Mexico later next week. We also have some hope that Irma will turn before reaching Florida or the US East Coast, and thus spare those areas of devastating winds and surge. However, the final track of Irma is far from locked in, so areas from Florida to New York should continue to monitor the powerful storm closely.

Posted at 8:00am CT on Saturday, Sept. 2 by Eric