Eric Berger

The Houston region missed out on most of the rainfall associated with a tropical disturbance Monday, as the Beaumont area got the worst of it with 5 to 7 inches of rain falling in some areas, and in some cases more. The atmosphere remains pregnant with moisture, however, and while Houston lies between heavy rainfall to the east (near Beaumont again) and to the southwest (near Corpus Christi) this morning, it is likely that one of these long rainfall bands moves over the Houston region eventually today. For this reason, the National Weather Service has placed Harris, Chambers, Galveston, Brazoria, and Fort Bend counties under a flash flood watch through 7pm today.

Tuesday

The much-discussed tropical disturbance has moved inland, into Texas near the Coastal Bend, but it will continue to serve as a focus of low pressure and atmospheric moisture for a few days. Given the long, banding feature on radar over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning, it is clear that somewhere along the upper Texas coast is going to get a healthy amount of rain today, probably on the order of 4 to 6 inches as training showers move inland. Whether that’s central Houston, Baytown, or somewhere between Baytown and Beaumont is less clear. For this reason it is probably safest to expect widespread totals of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall if you live in the counties in the flood watch area, but realize there is a chance for considerably more than that. This probably is still just a street flooding issue, although I’m a bit concerned about Baytown and points immediately east of there that received 3 to 4 inches of rain on Monday.

Regardless, today is a day to be aware of weather, anticipate the potential for street flooding, and check conditions before making a drive across town. We will update this site as warranted.

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Sunday marked the beginning of a surge of tropical moisture into Houston, and Monday represents the second day of what is looking like a four- or five-day stretch of wet weather for the region. The good news is that, despite the soggy conditions we anticipate, right now it doesn’t appear as though we are going to see extremely high rainfall rates that will cause significant flooding. Our best guess for conditions through Thursday, therefore, is sporadic street flooding. If you’re wondering how this affects your activities, it should be business as usual in Houston for the most part. (And if you’ve scheduled an outdoor birthday party, you have our apologies).

Monday

The radar shows scattered, moderate showers streaming into the Houston area this morning, but the heaviest rainfall remains offshore. That should change later this morning and into the afternoon, as a tropical disturbance moves closer to the Texas coast, and inland tonight. We anticipate the greater Houston region will see 1 to 3 inches of rainfall today, with the potential for higher localized amounts under the most intense storms. As you can see in the map below, rain totals will likely be greater near the coast.

Given these conditions, we do not anticipate widespread problems due to rainfall, however if you find yourself in a heavy downpour, the most dangerous thing you can possibly do is drive into high water. Please, don’t do that. Wait a little while, as these storms should progress through the area fairly rapidly and any flooding should be temporary.

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Sunday has gone about as expected—with a smattering of heavy downpours but most of the region receiving 1 inch of rain or less. Monday and possibly Tuesday will almost certainly be different, with the potential for widespread heavy rainfall, and enough uncertainty that we’re going to continue to watch the forecast closely. We will have an update on the site no later than 6am CT Monday.

What we know

The heaviest rains are remaining well offshore over the Gulf of Mexico as of Sunday evening. The general expectation is that as the tropical disturbance moves west, toward the Texas coast, these showers will slowly move toward Texas and southern Louisiana as well.

This inland movement of heavier storms seems most likely to happen sometime on Monday morning, but whether that’s shortly after midnight or well into the day, we can’t say for sure. I’d guess after sunrise, if I had to.

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Welcome to the weekend, everyone. We’ll be updating the site both on Saturday and Sunday out of an abundance of caution, rather than because we’re particularly concerned about the potential for flooding this weekend. The overall story remains the same: heavy rain potential increases on Sunday and Monday, with the biggest threat some localized high rainfall rates. As Houston floods go, this is not likely to be a memorable one.

Saturday

The weekend will start out mostly sunny, with a high in the low 90s on Saturday. Rain chances should increase later today, with 30 to 50 percent chances near the coast, and lower chances inland. Because moisture levels won’t spike until Sunday, we don’t anticipate any concerns from heavy rains. If you have outdoor plans today, I’d press ahead.

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