Eric Berger

Some kind of tropical system likely in the Gulf next week

Houston continues to face the prospect of a wet Labor Day Weekend—but we’re not concerned about anything more than the potential for some street flooding and spoiled outdoor barbecues with intermittent showers and thunderstorms.

However, we did want to update you on the potential for tropical mischief in the Gulf of Mexico next week. Some forecast models have become a little more bullish on low pressure forming in the northern Gulf next week, which could lead to development of a tropical storm. As of Saturday morning, the National Hurricane Center predicts a 40 percent chance that a tropical depression or storm will form during the next five days.

Tropical Weather Outlook. (National Hurricane Center)

There are a lot of uncertainties with this system, and forecast models are having a difficult time resolving them. Of course, everyone will want to know where this will go. However, that’s simply impossible to say without a reasonably well defined low pressure system, and that probably won’t exist for a couple of days.

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Lots of moisture in store for Texas, but no specific threats

Some parts of the greater Houston region received heavy showers on Wednesday, with several readers reporting upwards of 3 inches of rainfall in an hour. Other areas within the metro area saw no rain at all, just distant lightning. Rain coverage should back off a little bit today and Friday before more widespread showers likely return this weekend. As moisture moves into the Gulf, this pattern should continue.

Rainfall accumulations on Wednesday in Houston. (Harris County Flood Warning Service)

Thursday and Friday

Some slightly drier air has moved into the atmosphere, and this may help dampen—oops, wrong word there, I should probably say reduce—shower chances for the next two days. That is not to say it won’t rain, but rather that instead of 50 to 60 percent rain chances, it probably will be more like 30 to 40 percent, with the lower likelihoods inland, and slightly better chances near the coast. Highs will depend on local conditions, but will probably range from 90 to 95 degrees.

Saturday

By Saturday, the pattern will begin to shift toward wetter weather again, a the upper air pattern again favors the movement of more moisture into the Texas coast. Saturday doesn’t appear to be too waterlogged at this point, and it should be at least partly sunny. However, especially during the afternoon hours, there probably will be a healthy amount of showers and thunderstorms popping up across the Houston area. Highs in the low 90s.

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Stormy pattern through Labor Day weekend, eyeing the Gulf

Houston remains in a wetter, slightly cooler pattern that will see up-and-down rain chances through the Labor Day weekend. As we near the heart of hurricane season we’re continuing to expect activity to ramp up in the tropics, including possibly the Gulf of Mexico, but see no specific threats at this time. We’ll discuss that a bit more below.

Wednesday

Lower pressure draped over the region today, combined with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, should induce some pretty healthy rain chances for Houston (probably around 50 percent), especially during the afternoon hours. Because of some unstable air, where thunderstorms form, they could become severe, bringing the threat of strong wind gusts and lots of lightning. Some slow moving thunderstorms could quickly dump and inch of rain, or so. Highs will depend upon localized conditions, and should vary from the upper-80s to mid-90s.

For late August, these are not bad high temperatures for Wednesday in Texas. (Pivotal Weather)

Thursday and Friday

Rain chances fall back a bit, especially for inland areas. I still think coastal counties and the southern half of Harris County will see 40 or 50 percent rain chances, but they will be lower for other areas. Partly sunny skies should allow high temperatures for most areas to push into the mid-90s.

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Houston enters a wetter pattern to end summer

Our weather pattern heading into the end of August and early September has definitely changed, as high pressure has shifted east, and opened up the Texas coast to moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. While we don’t see any tropical threats at this time, certainly we can expect to see some elevated rain chances and (for August) cooler temperatures for most of the rest of this week, and Labor Day weekend.

Tuesday

Temperatures today will depend upon cloud cover, likely ranging from about 90 degrees into the mid- or even upper 90s for far inland areas that see mostly sunshine. Overall rain chances will be pretty healthy, about 50 percent. In this pattern, one neighborhood may receive as much as half an inch, while the next neighborhood over gets some sprinkles, and the next neighborhood after that gets no rain at all. Flooding won’t be a concern, but the National Weather Service does warn that scattered showers and thunderstorms today may produce short-lived tropical funnels and waterspouts.

High temperature forecast for Tuesday. Note the cooler highs for East Texas, due to clouds and better rain chances. (Pivotal Weather)

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

This pattern should more or less hold for the rest of the work week, with partly sunny days, scattered showers and thunderstorms, and high temperatures between 90 and 95 degrees. For the most part, outdoor activities should be fine, but if you do see a thunderstorm moving in you most definitely should take cover due to the potential for lightning.

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