Eric Berger

Houston’s weather will remain quiet, and mostly spring-like, until the arrival of a cold front this weekend brings a healthy chance of storms to the region. We’ll focus on that possibility in this forecast.

Wednesday

Highs today will be in the low 80s, with ample cloud cover as moisture streams into the region. Some (almost certainly very light) rain showers will be possible this afternoon, and during the overnight hours, as a cold front approaches Houston, and then pushes off the coast early on Thursday morning. Most areas probably won’t see rainfall, and those that do will only see slight accumulations.

Thursday

An exceptional day, with modest northerly winds, highs in the upper 70s, drier air, and sunny skies. Skip work, play hooky, plan an outdoor lunch—do whatever you need to do to spend this one soaking up springtime in Houston. Lows Thursday night will be in the 50s for inland areas, and lower 60s along the coast.

Friday

Another very nice day, with highs in the mid-70s, and partly sunny skies.

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After what can only really be described as absolute perfection on Monday, Houston’s weather will turn a little windier, a little warmer, a little more humid, and by the end of the week more stormier. Still, all things considered with summer looming, this should be a pretty fine spring week.

Tuesday

Following a chilly start, with low temperatures in the upper 50s, the mercury will rebound pretty quickly and we’ll see highs in the low 80s. The onshore flow has really reestablished itself, and that will manifest itself with gusty southerly winds later today. Skies will remain sunny. Overnight lows probably will only dip into the mid-60s for most of Houston, as humidity levels remain pretty high.

Wednesday

Due to an approaching (weak) cold front, and rising moisture levels from the onshore flow, lot of clouds will return to the region on Wednesday. We may also see some scattered showers, but any accumulations should be pretty slight—maybe enough to get the street wet but not a whole lot more. Highs will be around 80 degrees. The front should reach Houston later on Wednesday, and ever so slowly sag down toward the coast during the evening or overnight hours. It won’t have much oomph.

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Houston won’t reach record lows this morning (38 degrees, set in 1983), but for mid-April it is quite cold out, with upper 30s north of the city in places like Conroe and Cleveland, and mid- to upper-40s across most of the rest of the region except for coastal areas. I feel confident in writing that this will be our coldest spell of weather—Sunday and Monday mornings—for at least six months. We’ll return to more seasonal conditions for the rest of this week.

Monday

A fine, fine day with only very light winds, sunny skies, and high temperatures in the upper 70s. Later this afternoon winds will swing to come out of the south, representing the beginning of an onshore flow, but we’ll still see a cool-ish night tonight, with lows in the upper 50s for inland areas, and lower 60s along the coast.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These days will be a bit warmer, and more humid as atmospheric moisture levels rise. The southerly winds could be gusty at times. I’d expect high temperatures in the low 80s, with warmer nights in the mid- to upper 60s. I think we’re still going to see partly to mostly sunny skies. A weak cool front will push into Houston on Wednesday, and probably move just off the coast. While we can’t 100 percent rule out any showers with this front, I think a capping inversion will prevent most people from seeing any rainfall.

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Overall, the forecast remains pretty much the same. We’re watching for the possibility of storms on Friday night with the passage of a pretty robust cold front, and then looking for several days of really pleasant spring-time weather.

Thursday

The story for today will be winds. Onshore breezes will ramp up to 10 to 20 mph this afternoon, with higher gusts, in response to a large low pressure system in the Midwestern United States. Along with these winds, Houston should see a partly to mostly sunny day, with high temperatures around 80 degrees. A warm night, with lows only falling to around 70 degrees, will follow.

Friday through Saturday morning

Scattered showers, and a few thunderstorms, will be possible during the daytime on Friday as a cold front moves into Texas, but a capping inversion probably will keep most activity north of the Houston metro area. Most likely, we will have to wait until around sunset, or perhaps the overnight hours, for rain chances to really rise as the front moves through Houston.

Forecast models indicate a relatively quickly moving line of storms is likely to form along the front, although it’s not clear how intense these storms will be as the slide down toward Houston and the coast. Most areas probably will see less than 1 inch of rain as the front rolls through, and if this line of storms is broken, parts of Houston may not see much rainfall at all. The front will push off the coast by around 7am on Saturday, ending the chances of any storms, although some light rain may linger for a few hours.

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