Eric Berger

Welcome to your next 10 days, Houston: Heat and no rain

Houston has had a moderate first half of July, with an average high temperature below 93 degrees, and overall temperatures slightly below normal for this time of year. That is now about to change, as we shift into the mid- and upper-90s, virtually no chance of rain, and full-on summer. We hope you like it hot, because hot is what you’re going to get.

Monday

Remember all those clouds and healthy rain chances last week? Yeah, they’re pretty much gone. During most of last week the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, typically measured as precipitable water, was quite high as we saw values 50 to 100 percent above normal for this time of year. But this morning the tables have turned, with precipitable water values only about 50 to 70 percent of normal levels.

Precipitable water forecast for 7am CT on Monday morning. (Weather Bell)

So rain chances are going to go way down today, and go pretty much away for quite a while. Skies today should be partly sunny with highs in the mid-90s. What you probably will notice is a fine, yellow haze. That’s the Saharan dust that will be with us for the next few days. It will at least make for some pretty sunsets.

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Healthy chance of showers on Thursday and Friday

We’ve discussed the wet start to the month of July in Houston, and this has had the dual effect of keeping our lawns green as well as holding temperatures down a degree or so below normal for most of the area. Most evidence suggests the second half of the month will be considerably warmer and drier, so let’s enjoy the rain chances while they last.

Thursday

With high pressure kept at bay, and moisture levels pretty high, the region will probably see more widespread showers and thunderstorms today than we saw Wednesday. Probably about half of Houston will see rain, with accumulations of a few tenths of an inch. Partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon should limit high temperatures in the low 90s.

Thursday is probably the region’s best chance for widespread showers in quite awhile. (Pivotal Weather)

Friday and Saturday

These two days have the potential for more showers, but rain chances are probably only about 30 percent each day, as conditions won’t be quite as favorable for rain. As a result I think we can expect partly sunny skies, with highs in the low- to possibly mid-90s, and a few showers popping up during the day. Any rain is likely to be brief.

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Weekend outlook: Hot, sunny, with a few pop-up showers

Tuesday offered a preview for what we can expect the rest of the work week in Houston—some sunshine, some clouds, and some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Where the heaviest storms set up, downpours will occur, but we don’t expect to see the longer-lived showers that affected Houston last week around the July 4th holiday.

Wednesday

Partly sunny skies, with highs in the low 90s. Rain chances will be best on the eastern half of the city, where conditions are slightly more favorable for storms to develop. Still, there’s probably only about a 20 to 30 percent chance you get wet today.

Rain chances will be best today to the east of Houston. (Pivotal Weather)

Thursday and Friday

The story is similar to end the work week, with highs in the low 90s, a mix of sunshine and clouds, and scattered showers across the area. Again, there’s nothing we need to be too concerned about, but you probably should be prepared for the possibility of brief, heavy showers.

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Scattered showers likely with us through the weekend

It has been a wet week for southeast Texas, from Houston over to Beaumont, with much of the area receiving 5 to 15 inches of rainfall. Although these rains have at times been a nuisance, they’ve generally been good for the area as we head into mid-July. Now, during the hottest part of the year, we start out with wet soils and a diminished chance of a drought developing. This is a good thing.

Rainfall totals from July 3 to July 9. Click to enlarge. (NOAA)

Tuesday

Atmospheric moisture levels are a bit lower, but there’s still enough around that we’re likely to see some scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon—and embedded within these we may well see some brief, heavier downpours. However, skies should be mostly sunny for the most part, with highs in the low 90s for Houston.

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