Eric Berger

All things considered, after a long, hot, and wet summer, Monday was pretty nice. We had ample sunshine, highs in the upper 80s, and some drier weather. It offered an all-too-brief taste of what is eventually coming—fall, which may arrive toward the end of the first week of October. But now it’s over and we’re headed back into a wet and humid period for awhile. We’re not too concerned about the potential for flooding this week, but the dreary quotient for the next several days will be pretty high.

Tuesday

As Gulf moisture resumes flowing into the region today, rain showers will also spread over the area. I’d peg rain chances at about 50 percent today, with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 80s. Fairly quick movements of storms should limit any concerns about heavy rainfall lasting too long.

Wednesday and Thursday

The midweek is … interesting. As a cold front approaches the area from the northwest, rain will probably spread throughout much of the region on Wednesday. It’s not clear whether the front itself will reach into Houston, or stall just before or after pushing into the region. If you’re lucky (and if you’re on the west side of the city), you may see a day or so of drier weather on Thursday. But it’s not something I’d count on.

Basically, we can expect rainfall ahead of and along the front, and some brief drying after the front if it pushes through where you live. However, even if it does, the front will probably pull back (westward) across the region on Friday. Highs in the mid- to upper-80s.

See full post

A weak, dying cold front pushed through the Houston area on Saturday night—if you were awoken by storms, that was it—and this will set the stage for a couple of drier days. Initially, we expected this front to stall out near or over Houston, leading to more wet weather, but as it has pushed far enough east most areas should see a bit of a reprieve for a few days from the rain.

Temperature wise it won’t make too much of a difference, with highs still near around 90 degrees on Sunday and Monday with partly sunny skies, but mornings and evenings should feel a bit more pleasant until the front slides back tomorrow some time.

After this we’ll fall back into a wet pattern beginning later on Tuesday or Wednesday as another front nears the area. Again, we expect this one to stall before or near Houston, leaving us in a muggy, wet pattern. But if we get lucky again, perhaps that front will push through Houston as well, making for nicer weather next weekend. I certainly wouldn’t bet on it at this point, so for now just enjoy what should be a pretty nice Sunday.

After five dry days for most of the Houston region, we will now transition back into a wetter pattern for the next week or so as high pressure moves out of the area. After today, rain chances will likely be 50 percent or higher each day for the next week, although as of now there are no indications of any particularly widespread, heavy rainfall that will lead to significant flooding problems.

Thursday

Some showers will return today, particularly to the west and southwest of the Houston area. However, I expect most of the area to at least see some partly sunny skies, which will allow for high temperatures to get up about 90 degrees. We’ll probably see the most sunshine today that we’re going to see until at least Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Unfortunately, we can probably expect to see fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Again, we don’t anticipate a washout, but rain probably will never be too far away in terms of timing and distance, and some intermittently heavy rainfall is possible. Skies should be mostly cloudy, with high temperatures likely between 85 and 90 degrees.

Everyone will want to know how much rainfall is coming, and that is something that is really hard to predict. For example, during the first two weeks of this month the area received wildly variable rainfall amounts from 2 to 20 inches. With the showers and storms this weekend, we can probably generally expect 1 to 3 inches of rain, with some isolated higher totals in the 4 to 6 inch range. Where will these higher totals be? If I had to guess it would be west or southwest of Houston, but overall confidence is fairly low.

See full post