Eric Berger

Good morning. We hope you enjoyed the holiday weekend, a three-day one for many of us, because Mother Nature served up some spectacular spring-time weather. This week will have some nice moments, too, but it will also come with a chance of storms on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Monday

Today will be mostly cloudy and muggy for Houston, with high temperatures in the low 80s. While moisture levels have inched back up, we don’t expect too much in the way of rain showers due to a capping inversion (warmer air aloft) that should keep a lid on all but isolated to scattered rain showers. Tonight will be quite warm again, with most areas probably not falling below 70 degrees.

Tuesday

Here’s where things become a bit more interesting. Most of the day will probably be a lot like Monday, which is to say cloudy with highs in the low 80s. However, as a cold front approaches the area later on Tuesday, the cap seems likely to break, which will allow for a brief period of storms. This probably will take the form of a line of storms advancing through the region pretty rapidly.

Our best guess right now is that, between about 5 and 9pm on Tuesday, there is the potential for some brief, heavy thunderstorms, along with a chance of hail and damaging winds. The conditions are not going to be as favorable as we saw last Wednesday night and Thursday morning for significant storms, so we don’t have that great of an overall concern. For now it’s probably enough to know that the evening commute, and any outdoor events later on Tuesday and during the evening hours, have the potential to become disrupted. Rain accumulations of less than 1 inch are likely for most.

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Good morning! That was quite a light show early on Thursday morning, as severe thunderstorms with lots of lightning and strong winds surged through the greater Houston area. These storms generally brought 2 to 4 inches of rain across Houston, with some higher totals in Montgomery County, and nearly all area streams and bayous remained well within their banks. Three exceptions were for Peach Creek Near Splendora; and the West Fork San Jacinto In Humble, where some minor flooding was occurring. The heaviest rain remained off to the northeast of Houston, and some flooding is likely along the Trinity River later this week.

Thursday

As of 6am, rains have cleared out of the western half of Houston, and will continue pushing east and out of the Houston area over the next hour or two. Any threat of severe storms or heavy rainfall has now passed. Skies will gradually clear out today, and highs will reach into the low 80s, before a moderate cool front pushes through the area later this evening, bringing drier, less humid air into the region.

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Earlier today, I did a short telephone interview with The Weather Channel. Nice people. But they were really playing up the potential for serious flooding in Houston tonight. I offered a mild correction—that this was kind of a characteristic spring storm, and not something too worrisome—but that message seems to be getting lost. So let me reiterate it: Yes, some heavy rains are coming to the region this evening, and during the overnight hours, probably widespread accumulations of 1 to 4 inches, with higher isolated totals. No, we don’t expect widespread mayhem.

The setup for heavy rainfall is clear; a slow-moving cold front is moving toward Houston and lifting the warm, moist air at the surface. Some training of heavy thunderstorms is possible as the convective activity feeds off of the warm Gulf of Mexico moisture. Fortunately, the front itself should move off the coast on Thursday, taking this mess with it. Here’s the outlook for Houston until then.

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Last night Matt provided a solid overview of the reasoning behind Houston’s flash flood watch for Wednesday, and truthfully not much has changed. Wednesday and (especially, we think) Wednesday night have the potential for widespread, heavy rainfall with possibly some severe thunderstorms. We’re not expecting anything too extreme, rain-wise, but some street flooding is possible later tonight.

Wednesday

The big question for today is timing. As of about 7am, a fairly robust line of strong rain showers extends along a line almost half way between San Antonio at Houston. It’s not clear when the bulk of the rainfall will arrive. It could be as early as just before noon for western parts of the city, but not until afternoon, or even evening for most of the city. (Note: If you haven’t seen much or any rain by sunset, it doesn’t mean that the forecast is a bust, or the rain “missed” us. Hold on.) We’ll be watching closely, and update this site as necessary. Highs today should reach about 80 degrees under mostly cloudy skies.

Wednesday night

Sometime later tonight, probably about 9 to 11 pm, the forecast models move a boundary into the Houston region, and this should serve as a focusing point for heavy rainfall between that point and perhaps 2 to 4am on Thursday morning. This is the period during which we think the heaviest rain showers will move into Houston, along with the potential for some inclement weather like hail. Most of the area will probably see 1 to 3 inches of rain, but depending on where this boundary sets up—perhaps along the US-59 corridor, perhaps closer to the coast—we could see higher amounts than this. Either way, if you’re a light sleeper, thunder and lightning will probably wake you at some point tonight.

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