Eric Berger

Lows across Houston this morning range from around 40 degrees well north of Houston to the lower 50s along the coast. This morning caps an absolutely fantastic fall weekend for the region after the season’s first real norther. We’ll now warm up a bit for the week of Thanksgiving and have to watch for the possibility of some storms.

Today

Winds are calm at the surface this morning, but we’ve already started to see the return of an onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico. This will lead to a mostly sunny, and warmer day with highs in the mid-70s across the area. It will feel a bit more humid, too. And lows tonight will only fall into upper 50s for inland areas, and mid-60s closer to the coast.

Tuesday

As moisture levels rise across the region, an upper-level system will approach the area from the west, and eventually bring a cold front through. However before that happens we’re likely to see a mostly cloudy day on Tuesday, with highs in the upper 70s. During the afternoon winds from the southeast could gust up to about 20mph during the afternoon with a pressure differential.

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Some areas of Houston are seeing dense fog on this muggy morning, especially near and north of Interstate 10, especially to the west of Harris County. This should burn off by or before 10am CT, and then allow for a warm day.

Today

Under mostly sunny skies temperatures will climb into the low 80s today, and there won’t be much respite tonight, with some areas near the coast likely not falling below 70 degrees. But have no fear, these conditions won’t last.

Friday

Houston hasn’t had a true fall front yet this year, but one’s coming Friday, when the wind changes perceptibly, and cooler and drier air moves in right behind the frontal passage. The front itself will probably reach northern areas of Houston late during the morning, pass through the city during the early afternoon, and be off the coast by early evening. The key question is how much rain might come along with the front. Right now as the front moves through I’d guess we’ll see a fairly thin line of showers, with some embedded thunderstorms—but nothing too severe. Storms should end pretty quickly after the front with temperatures falling after that.

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After a cool morning we’ll have a couple of warm days before Friday’s significant cold front barrels through Houston.

Today and Thursday

It’s going to be warm. After a dry, cool morning to start Wednesday off, with low temperatures in the 50s, southerly winds are going to bring humidity levels up for today and Thursday. Expect high temperatures to again reach into the low 80s, with the big difference being lows. Tonight they will likely fall into the mid-60s, and on Thursday night we’re probably stuck with a low of only about 70 degrees. Ewww.

Friday

But it’s not going to last. A cool front should push through Houston sometime during the morning or early afternoon hours—right now sometime just before noon seems most likely—and along with it we’re likely to see a decent amount of rainfall. The forecast models have become more bullish, so we could see some fairly heavy showers along with the front’s passage. I still think most of the area will receive less than an inch of rain, but some isolated areas could pick up a few quick inches of rain. It’s something we’ll be watching for as the higher resolution forecast models start picking up on this.

Conditions should dry out and cool down by Friday evening as the front blows through.

Saturday and Sunday

Look for a pair of gorgeous, sunny, fall-like days this weekend. Highs in 60s, lows on Saturday will be around 50 degrees, and will fall into the 40s for inland areas on Sunday. In fact, I would not rule out the upper 30s for northern Harris County, as well as Montgomery and Liberty counties.

Monday and beyond

Next week we’ll see a gradual warm up, with high temperatures likely getting into the mid- to upper-70s, before another front comes through. The timing is a bit uncertain, but it looks like the cooler weather should arrive a bit before Thanksgiving, potentially giving us highs in the 60s on the holiday. The front should bring another chance of rain on Wednesday or so.

Posted Wednesday at 6:20am CT by Eric