Eric Berger

Today, there has been a lot of chatter on social media about the potential for the remnants of Harvey to move offshore into the Gulf of Mexico by around Monday, whereupon it might strengthen into a hurricane again and make a second landfall over Houston. This is obviously a scary scenario, but frankly it’s not one we’re losing too much sleep about here. The main threat for Houston remains heavy rains and inland flooding. But let’s discuss this anyway, because we’ve had a lot of questions regarding it.

For readers who been with us a few days, you’ll recall that we’ve been discussing the “Euro special” scenario since Thursday. The idea is that a drifting Harvey would wander southeast this weekend, and move back over the Gulf of Mexico. That seems increasingly likely to occur, although it’s far from locked in. Even with the European model, which has most consistently held to this solution, only about two-thirds of the ensemble members have the storm offshore on Tuesday.

While the center may move offshore for a day or two, the fact remains that Harvey no longer has an inner core, and what remains of it will deteriorate further while it is over land Sunday and at least part of Monday. This, along with its proximity to land, should limit intensification. In the official National Hurricane Center forecast released Sunday afternoon, hurricane scientists predicted that it may attain 45 mph winds offshore, but was not likely to strengthen further.

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I’ve been offline this morning because I had to deal with some serious personal and property matters. We are living through the same disaster as the rest of you, and my family is near the epicenter in the Clear Lake area. I think we’re in a good place now—well, as good of a place as one can be right now—and so I’d like to share some perspective. For this afternoon, at least, Matt will continue to handle immediate forecasting duties.

Harvey and rainfall

Tropical Storms and hurricanes, along with earthquakes, tornadoes, and other events are called natural disasters for a reason. They are, truly, disasters. And that is precisely what has unfolded across the Houston metro area during the last 12 to 18 hours.

Last night’s rains flooded many of the area bayous, and some areas, such as Clear Creek in southeastern Houston, have blown through 500-year flood levels. What is so maddening about these rains is that we don’t know for sure when they are going to stop. So if I may, let me offer some advice.

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Well, it’s sure been a night in Houston. And as mad as it’s been, it seems we are just not done. I feel almost guilty for writing about this, as I so desperately wish to report some good news for a change. Because it sure feels like we ought to be done with the rain. At least for a little while.

To put this into perspective, let’s review. First, around sunset, Band 1 stormed through Houston from west to east, topping off our bayous. Then it stalled over east Houston. Next came Band 2, which as it moved in from the west intensified about the time it reached the western city limits. Then, having made some unholy alliance with Band 1, the two merged more or less over downtown Houston. This created what meteorologists properly call a seething nexus of hate (and rain).

But no, we’re not done. Whereas it was once a thin line of showers, Band 3 is fattening up as it moves up the Highway 59 corridor toward Houston. Here’s the state of play as of 1:45am CT on Sunday.

I can’t really say whether Band 3 will strengthen further as it rotates east-northeast, but it seems already plenty healthy to bring another 3 to 5 inches of rain as it crosses Houston. And that assumes it keeps moving, rather than merging with the previous to rain bands to form a trinity of calamity. If that happens, God help us all.

Speaking of that, for the first time ever, the National Weather Service just issued what it is calling a “Flash Flood Emergency for Catastrophic Life Threatening Flooding.” And not to sound too flippant, but that sounds really bad. You should probably heed their advice—WHICH IS SIMPLY DO NOT TRAVEL. DO NOT IMPEDE WATER RESCUES IN PROGRESS.

Is that clear enough?

My wife, bless her, just asked me if Band 3 was it for the night. I wanted nothing more than to fall in her arms and tell her yes, this was it. By God, yes. Let’s go to bed and forget this ever happened. It had to be it, surely.

Well, by looking at the radar I’m sort of hopeful this is it. But some of the very same high-resolution models that indicated earlier Saturday that Houston was going to get slobberknocked tonight suggest that Band 3 isn’t it—that our rains will continue well into Sunday morning.

I dearly, dearly, dearly hope those models are wrong. Houston’s future (and our collective sanity) more or less depend upon that now.

End note: If you home has flooded, then we are truly sorry. No words from us can begin to address that problem. But we can say that millions of people have been through this before, and it can be done. Some good, basic advice, can be found here. And although this handbook from FEMA is dated, it provides detailed steps to take care of yourself, your family, and your property in the aftermath of a flooding event.

Posted by Eric at 2am CT on Sunday

A bad situation has turned worse. Earlier tonight we discussed two major concerns for the rest of the night—that a primary rain band moving north-northeast across Houston would stall, and that a second rain band moving toward west Houston would strengthen. Both subsequently happened, creating a super-mega-rainball of doom that that stretched across Houston from Tomball and The Woodlands down to Texas City. And as of 12:45am CT on Sunday, it shows no signs of abating.

Among the extreme rainfall data we have already seen tonight is that 9.92 inches of rain fell within three hours over portions of Southeast Harris County, and 6.60 inches fell within a single hour along Clear Creek in Friendswood. According to the Harris County Flood Control District, both of these totals are 500-year flood events.

Another data point that is concerning in the extreme: The Houston-Galveston office of National Weather Service has issued three Flash Flood Emergencies tonight for the Houston region. It had only ever issued one before in the five years or so that the forecast product has existed.

At some point, this must end. But it does not appear likely to do so anytime soon. It is not clear to me whether the homes flooded by Harvey in the greater Houston area will tally in the thousands, tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands, but it will be many. This community will have to come together after another devastating flood that seems likely to approach the same magnitude as that of our previous reference event, Tropical Storm Allison. That is two historic floods in less than two decades. Hopefully, we will learn from this. Certainly, we will rebuild.

Our general thinking at Space City Weather has been that tonight, and Sunday morning, would be the worst of the flooding Harvey will throw at us. We had hoped to get through the next 12 to 24 hours with minor wounds, but that will not be the case. Now, future rainfall from Harvey over subsequent days, although unlikely to approach the magnitude of tonight’s terror, will only worsen an already deep wound.

Key messages

• This is an extremely dangerous flooding situation for the Houston metro area
• Stay in your location
• The heavy rains from Harvey are likely to continue into Sunday morning, worsening an already borderline catastrophic situation

Posted by Eric at 12:45am CT on Sunday