Eric Berger

It feels like early June across the city of Houston this morning, with low temperatures only having fallen into the low 70s. Indeed, February has been quite a warm month after the cold start to 2018, and most areas are going to end up between 5 and 6 degrees above normal temperatures for the month. We will probably end up close to, if not among, the top 10 warmest Februaries in the city’s history. The map below shows the departure from normal temperature map for the last 30 days, through Monday.

Wednesday

Highs will reach the low 80s under mostly cloudy skies. We’ll see some brisk southerly winds as warm, humid air continues to move into the area. There’s a slight chance of showers for the northern half of Houston today, but for the most part I think the rain will hold off until a front moves through Wednesday night. The front, with a broken line of showers and storms, should sweep through the area between midnight and sunrise on Thursday, perhaps bringing a tenth of an inch of rain, or two. As spring fronts go, this one should be fairly mild.

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Well, that was nice while it lasted. Sunshine broke out across much of the area Monday, making for a beautiful afternoon and sunset. Unfortunately we are already seeing some light rain showers off to the southwest of Houston, and we’ll see more on-and-off rain chances through Thursday morning before we get another outbreak of pleasant weather.

Tuesday

A warm front is moving back onshore, bringing with it humidity and moisture into the Houston area. As this warm front moves inland today, it will generate some scattered showers, which mostly will be light. Under mostly cloudy skies we can expect highs in the upper 70s, with a warm night. Some areas along the coast might not fall below 70 degrees (this will flirt with record high minimum temperatures for Galveston, for this time of year, that were set in 2017).

Wednesday

This should be a warm, mostly cloudy day. Despite the absence of sunshine for most of the day, I think we’ll still see temperatures pushing into the lower 80s. A few scattered showers are possible, but I think that rain will hold off for most people until a front approaches the area Wednesday night. There is the potential for severe weather with this system as it moves southward through Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana, but it appears these storms will remain to the north of Houston, as the air becomes more stable closer to the coast.

For Houston, we can expect to see a line of showers and thunderstorms as the front moves through during the overnight hours on Wednesday, and pushes off the coast Thursday morning. Overall rain accumulations should be about one-quarter of an inch, or less, for most people. This is a good thing, as the San Jacinto and Trinity river basins are facing some moderate flood stages.

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Houston experienced another dreary weekend, with unrelenting gray skies and on-and-off rainfall. We’ve had so many of these in 2018 that I joked about them on Twitter.

Yet another weekend of beautiful weather for Houston, courtesy of your friends @SpaceCityWX. pic.twitter.com/XVbqMbu1xM

— Eric Berger (@SpaceCityWX) February 25, 2018

Fortunately, I think this pattern will break in a few days for the region, so let’s get right to the forecast.

Monday

Dense fog has developed for parts of Houston (there’s an advisory in effect until 10am) but other areas are pretty clear this morning. This fog should burn off pretty quickly. Otherwise, that nearly stationary front that helped spur widespread rain showers this weekend has finally pushed off the coast. That doesn’t mean we’re going to see sunny skies today, although I think some sun could peek through briefly. Instead, we’ll see a fair amount of clouds, and a chance of scattered, light showers later today with highs of around 70 degrees. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s for inland areas, and lower 60s closer to the coast.

Tuesday

Similar to Monday in that our skies will be mostly gray, but we should also see a rise in moisture levels as the onshore flow resumes from the Gulf of Mexico. Again, some scattered rain showers are possible, but nothing to write home about. The warmer flow should allow highs to reach up into the upper 70s.

Wednesday

Temperatures on Wednesday will depend on how much sunshine will poke through the clouds. If it is a mostly cloudy day, highs will be around 80 degrees. If some sunshine breaks through during the afternoon, I think we’ll get into the low 80s. Rain chances are low.

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The cold front that has been driving all of the precipitation finally pushed through the Houston area during the overnight hours, and so we’re generally seeing low temperatures in the 50s this morning—with 40s to the west and far north of Houston. The front lies just offshore, so this cold weather won’t last as the warmer air pushes back onshore.

Thursday

High temperatures today will be in the 70s under cloudy skies. Rain chances remain, but we’re not going to see the prolonged, heavier showers the region experienced on Wednesday. About half of the area probably won’t see any rain at all today, especially along the coast. Lows tonight will be warmer, as the onshore flow resumes.

Friday and Saturday

Friday and Saturday will be warmer and muggier under mostly cloudy skies, as Houston falls back into a pattern we’ve experienced a lot of this month. Expect highs in the upper 70s, with southerly winds, and warm nighttime temperatures in the 60s. Rain chances will be lower on Friday, and a bit higher on Saturday as moisture levels ramp back up and a cold front approaches and moves through the area during the evening or overnight hours.

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