Eric Berger

Officially, the mercury in Houston has yet to hit 70 degrees in 2018. In fact, we haven’t gotten that warm since Dec. 22. (This is, like, a real winter). Anyway, we have a chance to get close to 70 degrees this week before the region gets quite cold again this weekend.

Tuesday

Not much to say about today, as we’ll see partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low 60s. Winds won’t be appreciable today and lows tonight will probably only fall to around 50 degrees. Should be very nice for January.

Wednesday

As the onshore flow returns Tuesday night, the region should see a partly to mostly cloudy day on Wednesday, with the potential for some fog during the morning hours. Highs should climb into the mid- to upper-60s, and we could hit 70 degrees if the Sun breaks through for long enough.

Thursday

We’ll start the day out warm before a cold front moves through the area during the daytime hours. I’m not expecting anything severe, but the front’s push through the area could be accompanied by some brief, heavy rain showers.

Still, because the system should move steadily from northwest to southeast, I don’t expect accumulations above a few tenths of an inch of rain for most areas. Areas far inland on Thursday night could see a light freeze, but I expect most of the city to remain above freezing on Friday morning.

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The region’s latest cold front made a dramatic entrance on Sunday night, dropping anywhere from 0.25 to 1.5 inches of rain across the region as it pushed through. The rain was largely welcome, as Houston had yet to see much precipitation in 2018, and little is expected for much of the rest of this week. Instead, we can expect a steady diet of mostly clear, mostly cool winter-like weather. The weekend weather turns colder.

Monday and Tuesday

High pressure should assert control over Houston’s weather, allowing skies to clear later this morning. Although high temperatures should rise into the low 60s, brisk, northerly winds will make it feel chilly outside. Winds should begin to subside later this evening, and overnight lows will dip into the mid-40s—near normal for this time of year. Tuesday should be a nice day, with less wind and similar temperatures (highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s) beneath mostly sunny skies.

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We are now just one week away from the Houston marathon. And as the event comes closer, the forecast continues to become clearer. At this time we can have relatively high confidence in a cold and probably dry day for the run, which we’ve been suggesting for some time would be most likely. But how cold?

Ensemble forecasting (looking at the various ensemble members of the global models) remains a better practice until about five days out, so it still makes sense to look at the range of possibilities rather than a specific, point forecast. And generally, the global models are in agreement that a cold front will move through the region next Friday, with some reinforcing colder air on Saturday at some point. Because the timing of this colder air remains uncertain, we still cannot have total confidence in the forecast. But I think it’s safe to say the temperature will fall within the following ranges:

Run start, 7am CT

European model forecast: 25 to 45 degrees

GFS model forecast: 27 to 42 degrees

Run finish, noon CT

European model forecast: 40 to 60 degrees

GFS model forecast: 40 to 55 degrees

As for precipitation, rain chances appear low if non-existent. Most likely we’ll have clear skies, which would lead to quite cold temperatures to start the day.

The normal high temperature for Houston, in mid-January, is 63 degrees, with a low of 43. Confidence is increasing that we’ll see conditions for the 2018 Houston Marathon that are cooler than this. Although not ideal for spectators, I find the colder the weather, the longer I can run. So I welcome the cold.

We’re still more than nine days away from the marathon on Jan. 14, but the broad outlines of weather for late next week are starting to come into slightly better focus. It now seems likely that daytime temperatures will warm during the middle of next week up to around 70 degrees. After that, on Thursday or Friday, it appears as though a cold front will slide through the area—perhaps bringing some rain, perhaps not bringing that much.

If this holds, both Saturday and Sunday mornings would be chilly and dry, with lows in the upper 30s or 40s, rising up to daytime highs in the 50s. For now, this is the most likely scenario, probably a greater than 50 percent likelihood. Again, it’s difficult to have too much confidence in a forecast this far out, but the trendlines here are positive.