Eric Berger

Houston enduring its longest period of warm nights on record

Here’s a sobering statistic as we get deeper into September: Houston’s streak of “warm” nights is unprecedented. According to MDA Weather Services, the city’s run of nights 72 degrees, or warmer, is unprecedented in the period since 1889. It has now extended to 101 days (102 if we include Tuesday). In other words, we haven’t been below 72 degrees since June 10:

(MDA Weather Services)
(MDA Weather Services)

 

Unfortunately we are likely to extend this dreadful record for at least a few more days. However, there is still some modest hope of a cool front next week.

Today

With slightly drier air moving into the region we should see a mostly sunny day today, with highs in the low 90s, and lows in the mid-70s. Rain chances are near zero.

Thursday and Friday

The onshore flow resumes tonight, which should push humidity levels back up and return a chance of rain back into the forecast by Thursday. We should see a couple of partly to mostly sunny days to end the week, with highs around 90 degrees or slightly above. Scattered, strong thunderstorm development will be possible, especially during the afternoon hours. I’m not expecting anything scattered or too widespread, however.

Saturday and Sunday

The weather seems likely to be unsettled during the weekend, with ample moisture and the potential for some atmospheric disturbances to move into the region.

National Weather Service forecast for rain totals through the weekend. (Weather Bell)
National Weather Service forecast for rain totals through the weekend. (Weather Bell)

See full post

Houston’s Summer-tastic September continues

Summer continues, with a high temperature of 96 degrees on Monday, and more heat ahead. According to the National Weather Service, through Sunday, Houston Intercontinental’s average temperature of 84.1 degrees is 2.8 degrees above normal, and tied for the 3rd warmest such period on record (1st place is 84.8 degrees in 1995). Houston’s Hobby Airport has had its second warmest start to September ever.

But wait, there’s more.

Today

Another hot one. While we can’t rule out some isolated rain showers this afternoon, like we saw on Monday, most of the area will see mostly sunny skies. Temperatures should again rise into the August-like mid-90s. Brutal.

Wednesday

Some drier air will move into the state from the northeast later on Tuesday. While this is technically a “front,” we’re not going to see much of a cool down. But at least there will be a little less humidity for a day or so. Under sunny skies we should see highs in the low 90s, and lows in the lower 70s. Rain chances are near zero.

Thursday and Friday

As high pressure continues to retreat we’ll see a break from the really excessive heat, and should fall back into a late summertime pattern. That means highs around 90 degrees, lows in the mid-70s, and a chance of sea breeze-driven showers during the late morning and afternoon hours. Shouldn’t be too bad.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend is still in flux. It appears as though we’re going to see a healthy amount of moisture flowing in from the Gulf of Mexico, but there’s some question as to how much of a forcing there will be to drive that moist air upward, and produce some rain showers and thunderstorms. I think it’s reasonable to expect a good 30 to 50 percent chance of rain, with highs around 90 degrees.

National Weather Service rain accumulation forecast for now though the weekend. (Weather Bell)
National Weather Service rain accumulation forecast for now though the weekend. (Weather Bell)

See full post

Summer laughs at Fall, kicks its butt

As this site mentioned on Friday, Houston faces an abnormally warm, summer-like week. But does it have to be this warm? On Sunday highs topped out at 97 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, coming to within a couple of degrees of setting a high temperature for the day. More of the same, I am afraid, is on the way for the rest of the work week.

Today through Wednesday

Alas, we’ve fallen back into a typical summer-time pattern for the region. That is to say high pressure is dominating over much of middle America, including the state of Texas. This is going to push down rain chances (we’ll probably only see a few isolated showers along the sea breeze this afternoon), and drive up temperatures. Highs will climb into the mid-90s or, as we saw Sunday, possibly the upper 90s. The National Weather Service says it might even have to issue a heat advisory for today or Tuesday.

Heat will dominated over the central and eastern United States this week, and Texas is no exception. (Weather Bell)
Heat will dominated over the central and eastern United States this week, and Texas is no exception. (Weather Bell)

See full post

Some isolated, heavy storms possible this weekend; Houston heats up next week

Good morning. Just a quick update today as both Matt and I are traveling.

The National Hurricane Center continues to track a broad, disorganized area of low pressure that’s nearing the Texas coast and should come ashore today. Chances of development are near zero, but it is helping to usher in some moisture to the Texas coast.

This is likely to produce scattered to widespread thunderstorms later today and on Saturday. Although there isn’t any great organization, moisture levels will be quite high and it seems likely storm motions will be slow. This means that where storms do develop there will be the potential for some heavy rains that could cause street flooding. However I do not anticipate widespread flooding concerns. Storms will be most likely during the warmer, afternoon and early evening hours. Highs will remain around 90 degrees.

The European model shows high pressure building over Texas next week. (Weather Bell)
The European model shows high pressure building over Texas next week. (Weather Bell)

See full post