Eric Berger

Temperatures are cooler and drier this morning, and this has largely ended the chance of fog like that which the Houston area experienced Wednesday. We now will see some very pleasant weather before rain chances return on Sunday.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday

Thanks to a dry, northerly flow the region will have three dry and sunny days, with moderate high temperatures in the mid- to upper-70s. Low temperatures will range from the upper 40s north of Houston to the upper 50s to 60 degrees right on the coast. Overall, the weather should be just about perfect for the fall in Houston.

Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday

The one concern we’ve been discussing is the lack of rain since Hurricane Harvey. I know, it seems daft to worry about drier weather after a storm like that. But the fact is, most of Houston has had just 4 to 6 inches of rain in the 14 weeks since the storm, and this is causing the region to slip into drier than normal conditions. We’re not in a drought yet, and there are no major widespread, or significant concerns. However by the end of a La Niña winter (typically drier than normal for Texas), we might be.

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A dense fog advisory is in effect for Houston this morning, and will persist through 9am or 10am. Visibility will be as low as one-quarter mile for some areas, and less than a mile across much of Houston. Please take care during your morning commute today, and expect delays in marine operations.

Wednesday

After the fog burns away this morning, temperatures will be warmer today for most of Houston, as the next cold front pushing toward the region is doing so only slowly. That should allow high temperatures today to reach about 80 degrees under partly sunny skies later today. The front should finally move into Houston and through the region this afternoon, and reach the coast by around the evening. Rain chances with the front are near zero.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday

We’re going to see a run of three days of absolutely gorgeous weather, with high temperatures in the 70s and lows generally in the low- to mid-50s, and dry air. Skies should be mostly sunny. Our only concern is that, at this point, we could really use a bit of rain as the region has dried out quite a bit since Harvey. (More on that Thursday).

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Most of us remember last winter, right? November was 4.4 degrees above normal, and then came December. While the month had a couple of decent fronts, the second half had a run of extremely warm days and nights, including 80 degrees on Christmas and an overnight low of 71 degrees on Christmas night. Here’s what that looked like:

Temperatures this November have averaged about 5 degrees above normal, too, a lot like last year. But I’m willing to bet that December won’t see a repeat. Indeed, as I’ll discuss below, there are good reasons to think that a good chunk of December will see cooler than normal temperatures.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s today, and humidity levels will rise a bit. However, a weak cool front will arrive on Wednesday morning to put a lid of temperatures for the rest of the week. This front could spur a few showers near or along the coast, but for the most part we won’t see any precipitation. Highs Wednesday should be in the mid-70s with continued sunshine.

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Houston just enjoyed a splendid week of weather, and truth be told there’s more great fall-like weather to come for the region—nothing too hot or too cold. However, winter is not too far off. And as this graphic published on Twitter by climate scientist Brian Brettschneider shows, we are entering the historically coolest period of weather for the region:

This indicates that the coolest 90-day period for Houston (and most of the Gulf Coast outside of Florida) runs from the end of November through the end of February. And indeed, there are some signs of more winter-like weather in the extended forecast, as I’ll discuss below.

Monday and Tuesday

After a cool start to the work week, highs will jump up into the mid-70s on Monday, and upper 70s on Tuesday. With relatively dry air (especially on Monday) and sunny skies, both days should feel quite pleasant, and nights will be mild with lows in the upper 50s to 60 degrees. As moisture levels begin to rise Monday night, we could see some fog on Tuesday morning.

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