Eric Berger

We can now say with increasing confidence that some sort of cool front is coming to Houston, but it does not appear to be a classic, blow-in-from-the-northwest type of system that will knock down humidity and temperatures within the span of a few hours. Rather, drier and eventually cooler air should move into the area rather slowly, over a period from Monday to Wednesday. But something is better than nothing!

Today

Scattered showers over the Gulf of Mexico this morning should migrate in later today, with periods of sunshine and clouds, and scattered showers. Still warm and muggy, with highs near 90 degrees and lows in the mid-70s.

Sunday and Monday

Rain chances will be higher on Sunday and Monday, as moisture pools ahead of the front. Can see most of the area getting between 0.5 and 1.5 inches, with the potential for greater amounts in isolated areas. The “front” might move into central Texas on Sunday night, and will approach the western fringes of the Houston metro area sometime on Monday, probably during the morning. However it is unlikely that much of Houston will see drier air until late Monday at the earliest.

Tuesday

As some drier air moves in rain chances should fall, although probably won’t go away entirely. Highs will likely be in the upper 80s. Lows may be anywhere from the low 60s to the west of Houston to the upper 70s near the coast.

Wednesday through Friday

At this point drier air should finally work its way more fully into the area, bringing us mostly sunny skies. I don’t think the global forecast models have a great handle of temperatures yet, but it seems likely we’ll see highs in the 80s (low or high, not clear), and lows in the 60s (again, could be low or high). Although it won’t be cold, the cooler, drier evenings and mornings should nonetheless feel great. And once the first front comes through, it’s easier to get the second one.

Posted on Saturday at 8:10am CT by Eric

Good morning. The cold front watch continues for Houston, but alas there’s still no certainty about what lies ahead. One thing we can have some confidence in is a return to a more rainy, unsettled pattern this weekend.

Today

With some moisture returning to the area we can expect to see some isolated to scattered showers later today, along with still very warm temperatures in the low 90s. Very summer-like.

Friday and Saturday

More moisture will flow in off the Gulf of Mexico, and at the same time the ridge of high pressure that pushed temperatures up this week is going to move off, opening up the possibility of more widespread showers and thunderstorms. I’m not expecting anything too intense, and most areas will probably see a few tenths of an inch of rain, or less. Highs will be around 90 degrees, under partly sunny skies, with lows in the upper 70s.

Sunday and Monday

A large trough of low pressure, along with a cold front at the surface, is going to move into Texas on Sunday (west Texas) and Monday (most of the rest of the state). With moisture still flowing into the state from the Gulf of Mexico, this front could generate a lot of rain—perhaps as much as 10 inches for some areas along the I-35 corridor (heads up, Dallas), or just to the west of it.

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We’re still about five days away, so the forecast is far from clear. However, both the GFS and European model forecasts that have come out this afternoon show a strong front arriving in Houston on Monday night or Tuesday morning.

This is not a stone cold lock. But it is the time of year when we would expect our first front to arrive, and the upper atmosphere is favorable for a low-pressure system to move into Texas early next week from the northwest. And, at least for now, the global forecast models show this front moving all the way into Houston (the GFS) or, even better, off into the Gulf of Mexico (the European model).

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Here’s a sobering statistic as we get deeper into September: Houston’s streak of “warm” nights is unprecedented. According to MDA Weather Services, the city’s run of nights 72 degrees, or warmer, is unprecedented in the period since 1889. It has now extended to 101 days (102 if we include Tuesday). In other words, we haven’t been below 72 degrees since June 10:

 

Unfortunately we are likely to extend this dreadful record for at least a few more days. However, there is still some modest hope of a cool front next week.

Today

With slightly drier air moving into the region we should see a mostly sunny day today, with highs in the low 90s, and lows in the mid-70s. Rain chances are near zero.

Thursday and Friday

The onshore flow resumes tonight, which should push humidity levels back up and return a chance of rain back into the forecast by Thursday. We should see a couple of partly to mostly sunny days to end the week, with highs around 90 degrees or slightly above. Scattered, strong thunderstorm development will be possible, especially during the afternoon hours. I’m not expecting anything scattered or too widespread, however.

Saturday and Sunday

The weather seems likely to be unsettled during the weekend, with ample moisture and the potential for some atmospheric disturbances to move into the region.

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