Good morning. The heat is on this week with Monday’s temperature rising to 98 degrees, and more of the same on the way. We might finally begin to see a bit of relief this weekend.
Today through Thursday
We’re going to be pretty much under the influence of high pressure this week, which will make our days very hot—likely in the upper 90s—with mostly sunny skies and high humidity. While I’m not going to entirely rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon hours, they’re unlikely where you live.
The upside of this weather, for Texas’ sake, is that the near-tropical storm strength Invest 97L, presently sought of Jamaica, is very likely to remain on a westerly track around the high.
Model guidance for Invest 97L continues to keep the storm well south of Texas. (Weather Bell)
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Long-time Houston residents will know the month to really fear, in terms of heat, humidity, and drought—not to mention very strong hurricanes—is August. I’ll have more later this week on why August is this region’s hottest month, but for now just know that it is. August is a month to be survived in Houston, as we await the beginning of fall in late September. And this week will be a typical August in Houston.
Today
Upper-level high pressure will begin building over Houston today, but there’s a chance we may squeeze a few showers under the pressure later this afternoon when the sea breeze lights up. I don’t think coverage will be that great, and I expect showers that do develop to be short lived. Highs will be in the mid- to upper-90s.
Tuesday and Wednesday
With high pressure dominating we’ll see mostly sunny days with highs in the upper 90s. Some inland areas may flirt with 100 degrees. Lows in the upper 70s.
Texas will lie under a ridge of high pressure this week, which will heat us up. (Weather Bell)
After Matt’s thorough tropical update on Saturday, and notably the area of interest known as Invest 97L, I thought I’d provide a shorter update today.
The system has now crossed over the Leeward Islands into the Caribbean Sea, and it continues to move westward, likely bringing winds and rains to Puerto Rico today. The National Hurricane Center continues to predict a 70 percent chance that this system develops into a tropical depression or storm within five days.
And after that? In the post Matt pointed toward two scenarios for what happens to 97L if it makes it into the Gulf of Mexico by around next Friday, or so. The first is that a fairly strong ridge over the southern United States keeps the tropical system to the south of Texas, confined to the Bay of Campeche. This solution was favored by the European model. The other possibility was that this ridge would shift east in about a week, allowing 97L to follow a more northwesterly track toward Texas. However the GFS model which had shown this weakness, appears to be trending toward a stronger ridge.
Models begin to align?
The image below shows the ensemble forecast from the GFS model this morning (06z run) which essentially means the model is run a number of different times, with slight different initial conditions. You can see that the majority of solutions now keep the storm well to the south of Texas.
GFS ensemble forecast for tropical low locations early Monday morning. (Weather Bell)
