As expected, some moderate-to-strong thunderstorms have developed across the Houston area this morning as a weak cold front sags closer to the region. This unsettled pattern will persist throughout the day and likely Sunday as the atmosphere is very moist.
Due to some especially heavy thunderstorms over northeastern Harris County, where in excess of 4 inches of rain have fallen since midnight, the National Weather Service has had to issue a flash flood warning until 11 am.
Area of flash flood warning in effect until 11am. CT. (National Weather Service)
Strong storms have also developed near Sugar Land and Katy this morning. Most areas are not going to see nearly so much rain as 4 inches, but the flood warning warning illustrates the potential for heavy rainfall due to the abundant tropical moisture in our atmosphere. Basically, the advice Matt gave yesterday holds for this weekend—bring an umbrella, and be prepared to have outdoor activities disrupted due to periods of inclement weather.
As Tropical Storm Cindy turned to the north on Wednesday evening, the system’s rain bands went with it. The storm clearly demonstrated how miles matter when it comes to tropical weather, bringing about 6 inches of rainfall to an area between Beaumont and Lake Charles along the Gulf coast, and far less just 100 miles to the west in Galveston. For Houston, as we suggested here on Wednesday, Cindy turned out to be a non-event, with 0.5 to 2.0 inches of rain across the eastern half of the region, and very little rain to the west.
With this rain accumulation map it’s not hard to see where Cindy made landfall. (NOAA)
Cindy also showed why it’s best to be on the west, or left, side of a tropical system—where there’s generally less rain, wind, and the northerly flow on the back side of a tropical system can sometimes bring drier air as we saw on Wednesday with the lower humidity. My concern is that when a more serious tropical system threatens, residents will remember Cindy and think, “Oh, it’s no big deal.” That’s why Matt and I started this site, to not hype storms like Cindy, so when the real deal comes you’ll take us at our word.
Today
After making landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border before sunrise, Cindy has continued moving north. Additional showers and thunderstorms from the back side of the tropical system may rotate through Houston today, but I don’t think they’ll bring more than 1 to 2 additional inches of rain even for the hardest hit areas. Highs should again be limited to about 90 degrees.
Friday
Muggy weather returns on Friday, and with partly sunny skies we can expect temperatures to likely warm into the mid-90s. It’s going to feel hot after the cooler mid-week weather Houston experienced due to Cindy.
Saturday and Sunday
This weekend should be fairly wet, especially for the southern half of the Houston area. The combination of an approaching front—not really cold front, sorry—and the region’s moist and warm environment should allow for the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some areas could see an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain, but right now I’m not anticipating any flooding problems. Mainly, the rains may be a hassle for those with outdoor plans. Highs will reach the lower 90s.
Next week
Rain chances won’t be quite as robust next week, but I’d still expect at least scattered showers and thunderstorms, with partly sunny skies, to start next week. This weather isn’t all bad for late June, a month which some times can be a scorcher, as it should help to keep highs around 90 degrees.
Just a quick update tonight. As expected, Tropical Storm Cindy appears to be headed toward landfall near the border between Texas and Louisiana. This north-northwest movement has spared the Houston metro area from heavy rainfall this evening, and kept the bulk of precipitation over the Beaumont area, and Louisiana.
Cindy’s rains from Wednesday night onward will threaten East Texas more so than Houston. (Weather Bell)
During the overnight hours it seems likely that some of those rain bands will work their way into Houston, at least on the east side of Interstate 45. But even so I’d expect moderate accumulations, likely no more than 1 to 3 inches, and probably less than that for most people. Because the storm is turning to the north-northwest now, it looks like Houston will also escape sustained winds of tropical storm strength during the overnight hours. I’d expect winds to die down on Thursday afternoon.
After Cindy moves inland on Thursday morning, likely around sunrise, the storm will gradually move north throughout the day, taking the potential for heavy rain with it. I’d expect a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms to linger, however. We’ll take a comprehensive look at the forecast ahead in a new post tomorrow morning. Until then, breathe a sigh of relief—this bout of tropical mischief has left us largely alone.
Just a quick update on Wednesday afternoon to say that our forecast from this morning holds—effects from Tropical Storm Cindy are unlikely to be too significant for the greater Houston area. Mostly, we can expect some heavy rainfall. The only thing that could change this is if the storm follows a westerly track into the Galveston area, but at present that seems to be a low probability.
Rainfall
We’re starting to see some convection firing up on the west and northwest side of Cindy’s center today, but the storm is running out of time to become a real rainmaker for the Houston region as it will near the coast tonight, and move inland by Thursday morning. The water vapor image below shows some of the convection developing out in front of Cindy as the storm moves northwest toward the Texas-Louisiana border.
Water vapor image from early Tuesday afternoon. (US Navy)
Most of the model guidance suggests the Houston region will likely see 1 to 3 inches of rain from Cindy later today, tonight, and on Thursday. Generally, rain chances will be greater to the east of Interstate 45. Given the tropical nature of this system, we can’t rule out some isolated bullseyes of 6 inches, but I think we can confidently say this is likely not going to be a major flooding event for the area.
Average rainfall totals from GFS ensembles for now through Friday. (Weather Bell)
Tides and winds
At present waves are coming up onto Bolivar Peninsula, and seas are rough, but road conditions along the coast are generally manageable. Rip currents are a concern as well. It looks like high tides will reach a maximum of about 4 feet above normal.
In regard to winds, expect some gusts tonight in the upper 20s or low 30s in the city, and possibly in the low 40s along the coast. Sustained winds will be lower.
