Houston to see 80-degree days for awhile

Spring has come to Houston, and that means a steady diet of 80-degree temperatures for at least the next week or so. A risk of storms remains on Friday.

Today and Thursday

We’ll see continued warm weather—for this time of year—as high pressure sort of sways across Texas during the next couple of days. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs in the low- to mid-80s. These are near-record high temperatures for this time of year. Lows will moderate into the low- to mid-60s. The primary concern will be the possibility of some scattered, dense fog.

Friday

As we’ve been discussing, an upper-level low pressure system, and an associated cold front, will move off the Rocky Mountains later this week and drag what will probably be a significant line of storms across parts of the central and southern United States. Most of the action should be north of the Houston metro area, but we’ll need to be wary of the possibility of a few severe thunderstorms north of interstate 10.

Severe storm outlook for Friday afternoon and evening. (NOAA)

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Warm Gulf to keep Texas warm this week

Good morning. Houston will remain warm this week, with high temperatures near record levels—as was the case for much of the winter. A chance of storms moves into the forecast by Friday.

Tuesday through Thursday

Expect mostly sunny days, with highs around 80 degrees near the coast and mid-80s for inland areas. Why is it so warm? Look no further than the Gulf of Mexico, where for the first time on record, the daily average surface temperature never fell below 73 degrees Fahrenheit this winter. Here’s a map showing the present-day temperature anomaly:

Gulf of Mexico temperatures remain 3 to 5 Fahrenheit degrees above normal along the Texas coast. (Weather Bell)

A steamy Gulf has meant that any time winds blow out of the south, we’re not going to cool down that much over night, and daytime temperatures can warm pretty quickly.

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As the Sun rises above the equator, you know what that means Houston

Good morning. Today is the spring equinox, the point at which the Sun crosses the equator. For a nice explanation of why meteorologists generally begin spring on March 1, instead of today, see this post by Braniff Davis. In practical terms, for Houston, this means that days will continue to get longer for three additional months, and we’re going to continue our march toward the dead of summer. It also makes last week’s brief cold outbreak (shown in the graphic below), all the more sweeter.

Daily temperature departure from normal in Houston this year. (Matt Lanza)

Today

It’s warmer this morning than it’s been in Houston for awhile, with lows generally having fallen only into the mid-60s. That’s because in addition to a warm flow moving in from the Gulf of Mexico, some overnight clouds helped keep some of the heat close to the surface. But those clouds should mostly go away later today and allow highs to climb to around 85 degrees (and about five degrees lower along the coast). Lows tonight will be in the mid-60s.

Tuesday and Thursday

Similar weather should continue through most of the work week—lots of sun, highs in the mid-80s, lows in the mid-60s. This is warm for mid-March, but won’t be record-setting for the area expect for perhaps the coast, where Galveston’s record highs for this time of year are around 80 degrees.

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It’s official—Texas had its warmest winter

It’s official, both Lousiana and Texas had their warmest winters on record. According to NOAA, Louisiana had an average temperatures 6.8 degrees Fahrenheit above average, and Texas was 5.7 degrees above average. From the graphic below it’s not hard to find the culprit for the warm temperatures—the Gulf of Mexico—heated at least in part due to a warming climate.

Average temperature percentiles. (NOAA)

Now let’s jump into the forecast, which will show a hint of cooler weather for next week, and a mostly pleasant Spring Break week.

Today

Temperatures are in the mid- to upper-60s this morning across Houston, and this is helping to cause some fog over the sea and for areas near the coast. It should clear by mid-morning. Skies should remain mostly cloudy during the afternoon hours, with highs climbing into the upper 70s. With the moisture now coming back and an unstable atmosphere, we’re going to be returning to a pattern where thunderstorms are possible later today, although I think most of the region will probably remain dry.

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