Eric Berger

After one more hot day we’ll cool down a bit for Labor Day Weekend

Houston’s temperatures reached 95 degrees on Wednesday—also known as full summer—and we’ve got one more very warm day before things turn a little cooler, and a little grayer.

Today

With some high pressure over head, mostly sunny skies, and only slim afternoon rain chances today will be another very hot day for the region, with temperatures in the mid-90s. But even for early September, this is pretty typical weather for Houston.

Friday

On Friday a weak front will approach the region from the northeast, and should eventually push through the Houston metro area. Effectively this will increase cloud cover and raise rain chances a bit during the afternoon hours, and some areas may get a few tenths of an inch of rain. The front will moderate temperatures and dewpoints slightly, such that by around sunset, instead of a heat index of 95 degrees, we should see 85 degrees. It won’t feel amazing, but for early September, it should feel entirely pleasing.

A comparison of the GFS model forecast for relative humidity on Thursday night versus Friday night (bottom). (Weather Bell)
A comparison of the GFS model forecast for relative humidity on Thursday night versus Friday night (bottom). (Weather Bell)

(Thank you to Meyerland Animal Clinic for sponsoring Space City Weather this month.)

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TS Hermine finally forms in Gulf, bound for Florida and beyond

After what seems like months of build-up, speculation and watching, Tropical Storm Hermine has finally formed in the Gulf of Mexico. The system still looks somewhat ragged, but its wind speeds have come up, and there’s now the potential for further development before it nears the Florida coast in about 36 hours.

The system has gotten a lot of hype for a mere tropical storm. Part of this is because about a week ago the respected European model really showed strong development (which hasn’t occurred yet), and the fact that it has been nearly three years since a hurricane formed or passed through the Gulf of Mexico. And while this system, formerly known as Invest 99L and Tropical Depression Nine, has been subject to some derision it now should be taken seriously—not only by Florida but much of the east US coast.

Right now this is a big tropical storm, with tropical-storm force winds out to about 100 miles from its center. Those winds may well intensify as the storm has the potential to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane before landfall, although this is far from certain. Hermine also is both a rain (10-15 inches for some locations of Florida is possible) and surge threat to the west coast of Florida. The National Hurricane Center has these threats covered in its rainfall and storm surge products.

Track models for Tropical Storm Hermine. (Weather Bell)
Track models for Tropical Storm Hermine. (Weather Bell)

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Hotter for a few days before cooling a bit by Labor Day Weekend

An upper-level low pressure system is producing heavy rains down the Texas coast, from Corpus Christi to Brownsville, this morning. But Houston is beginning to feel the effects of high pressure, and will continue to do so for the next couple of days. We’ll eventually be cooler, too.

Today and Thursday

The net effect of the high pressure for Houston will be a return to warmer weather for a couple of days. We can’t rule out a few isolated, briefly heavy showers during the afternoon hours, but for the most part we’re going to see partly to mostly sunny skies, and a likely return of temperatures into the mid-90s. It’s what August is supposed to feel like!

Friday and Saturday

By Friday a weak front will backdoor into the region from the northeast. It’s not going to bring brisk winds or much cooler air, alas.

European model depiction of surface winds on Friday morning. (Windyty)
European model depiction of surface winds on Friday morning. (Windyty)

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August’s “great divide,” and a look at Labor Day weekend

It’s been more than two weeks now, but can you remember back to the first part of this month? Very warm nights. Five straight days of 100-degree temperatures. Through the first 13 days of the month, an average high of 99 degrees. Then the big pattern change came, one in which tropical moisture won out over high pressure in August.

This happened:

A tale of two months. (National Weather Service)
A tale of two months. (National Weather Service)

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