Eric Berger

Good morning. Any vestiges of last weekend’s Arctic blast have fled from Houston now, retreating from a warm and moist southerly winds blowing into the region from The Gulf of Mexico and the country itself. The pronounced flow will make for warm temperatures for much of the United States.

Today

Expect a breezy day as southerly winds gust into the low 20s. Skies should be partly to mostly cloudy as high temperatures climb into the upper 70s. Expect lows tonight to fall only into the mid-60s.

Wednesday and Thursday

Not really sure what to say about these days other than … WTF?!? We’ll get another couple of very winds (20-25mph gusts) days, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures of around 80 degrees. Did I mention that this is typically the coldest time of year? The record high for both days is 81 degrees, and we’ll have to watch and see if those are broken. Overnight lows will probably remain in the upper 60s.

Friday and Saturday

A cold front will enter Texas on Friday but stall north of the Houston region. Along with more favorable dynamics in the upper atmosphere, this should lead to at least some scattered rain chances on both days, and we can’t rule out some thunderstorms. With the possibility of some rain and the return of some clouds, expect highs to moderate slightly, perhaps into the mid-70s.

(Space City Weather is sponsored by Westbury Christian School for this month)

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If only the Houston Marathon were run this morning. Yes, it’s cold on the morning a week from the marathon, but temperatures are now above freezing, winds are light, and skies are clear. Unfortunately, as we look ahead to next weekend, the forecast is anything but clear.

Here’s what we know as of Sunday morning about the week ahead: Temperatures this week will be warm. Highs from Tuesday through Saturday will be warm, likely between 70 and 80 degrees for nearly all the metro area. We also know that at some point toward the end of the week a cold front will move into Houston—but the timing is uncertain, and therefore so is the forecast. In addition to concerns about temperatures we’ve also got to worry about precipitation along with the front, especially if the cold front passage occurs between midnight Saturday and noon on Sunday, which seems entirely plausible at this point.

In terms of uncertainty, here’s what I mean. About 28 of the 50 ensemble members of the European model bring the cold front though Houston by 6 am CT on Sunday. But only half of those models bring the front through substantially before the start of the marathon, such that any associated precipitation is likely to have cleared out.

And so it is very difficult to make a forecast for the marathon. There is perhaps a one-third chance that the front moves through on Saturday, making for a clearing and colder race morning. There is perhaps a one-third chance the front arrive just before, or during the race, which makes for a wet race morning, with perhaps 1 inch of rain or so (potentially a wet and windy mess). And there is perhaps a one-third chance the front doesn’t make it through until after the race, making for a warm, humid run.

I hope we will find some clarity in the forecast in a day or two, but as of right now the forecast is a mess because the timing of the front is so close to race day.

(Space City Weather is sponsored by Westbury Christian School for this month)

Given how cold it is this morning across Houston, it’s difficult to imagine warmer temperatures, but the region will indeed warm into the upper 70s by late this week. If you’ve been reading my long-range forecasts for the Houston Marathon, on Jan. 15th, you’ll know that my concern has been that the majority of model guidance has been indicating the heat won’t “break” before race day. However, over the last 24 to 26 hours the forecast models have been shifting their outlook by bringing the next front through sooner. Therefore, although the forecast remains uncertain, there is some cause for optimism. Let’s take a closer look.

GFS model

As has happened a lot this winter, the GFS model has flip-flopped on its forecast in the 7-10 day time frame. During three of the last four model runs the model has brought a cold front through the region on Saturday, Jan. 14th, which would of course be excellent news. If this scenario plays out, we could conceivably see race-time temperatures in the low-40s, with highs in the mid-50s.

This is a nice change from the previous outlooks, but I want to stress that the timing of the cold front remains far from locked in—and a cold frontal passage on Sunday at noon does us runners no good.

The European model

The ECMWF model has also trended colder, but again it boils down to the timing of the next cold front. About half of the ensemble members bring the front in before the beginning of the race, and about half bring it in on Sunday around noon or later. Therefore the European model has a range of low temperatures at race time from 35 to 65 degrees. That’s not very clarifying, is it?

Given the uncertainty, here’s my current thinking is on conditions at the start line:

Temperatures below 50 degrees: 50 percent

Temperatures from 50 to 60 degrees: 25 percent

Temperatures above 60 degrees: 25 percent

Precipitation: Rain chances will be dependent upon the timing of the front. If it comes through on Saturday, Sunday morning should be dry. But if the front pushes through on Sunday, it could make for a messy, wet race day.

Posted by Eric at 9:20am CT on Saturday