Eric Berger

Houston on pace to have its warmest July on record

Near the beginning of the move Good Morning, Vietnam a character played by Robin Williams, US Air Force radio personality Adrian Cronauer, gives the forecast for South Vietnam. During this region’s heat in July and August in Houston I’m often reminded of these lines from the the movie, which now is nearly 30 years old:

The weather out there today is hot and —-ty with continued hot and —-ty in the afternoon. Tomorrow a chance of continued crappy with a pissy weather front coming down from the north. Basically, it’s hotter than a snake’s ass in a wagon rut.

Anyway, that’s a good forecast for Houston this week. Through 10 days it has been a miserable July, with the average temperature (a combination of highs and lows) running at 88.1 degrees through 10 days. That puts us on pace to have the hottest July on record in the city of Houston, eclipsing 1980, 2009 and 2011. It’s a record I hope we don’t set.

Today and Tuesday

A combination of lingering high pressure and dry lower atmosphere (although not at the surface, where humidity levels will remain high) will combine to shut down nearly all chances of rain. We may see a few stray showers develop south or southeast of Houston—but I doubt it. Highs will remain in the mid-90s, with lows around 80 degrees.

Yuck.

The rain accumulation forecast for now through Wednesday is pretty grim. (Weather Bell)
The rain accumulation forecast for now through Wednesday is pretty grim. (Weather Bell)

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Why Houston is seeing more warm nights

Let’s talk about minimum temperatures. The city of Houston has now recorded five consecutive mornings of 80-degree plus temperatures. This average of 81.6 degrees trails only a five-day period in 2011 (81.8 degrees) for the warmest stretch of minimum temperatures in about 120 years of records for the city of Houston.

Looking across the entire globe, climate scientists have been noticing this trend for some time—that as the planet warms nighttime temperatures appear to be warming faster than daytime temperatures. In Chapter 2 of the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the authors write, “Confidence of accelerated increases in minimum temperature extremes compared to maximum temperature extremes is high due to the more consistent patterns of warming in minimum temperature extremes globally.”

Why is this happening?

Now there’s no question that development around northern Houston has played some role in warmer temperatures around the National Weather Service’s official station at Bush Intercontinental Airport. This is the so-called Urban Heat Island effect. However it would be wrong to attribute the nighttime warming to urbanization alone, as the global trends are pretty clear. Warmer nights locally are consistent with a warmer world.

How the day-night thickness of the boundary layer may affect temperatures. (Richard Davy/Bjerknes Center)
How the day-night thickness of the boundary layer may affect temperatures. (Richard Davy/Bjerknes Center)

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Record warmth for July continues in Houston

Houston had another staggeringly warm morning today, with the low only falling to 81 degrees. This continues the warmest start to July, in terms of average daily minimum temperature, on record for the city of Houston. We’ve now recorded five consecutive mornings with a temperature of 80 degrees or higher, which is also a record. Some readers have asked why this warmth is occurring, and I will dive a bit deeper into that question later today.

For now, let’s look at the forecast.

Today through Monday

The forecast remains more or less set in stone. With high pressure in place over Texas, the region is likely to continue to see high temperatures in the mid-90s, lows around 80 degrees, and mostly sunny skies. With the high weakening a bit this weekend we might see a few scattered showers on Saturday, or perhaps Sunday, but by and large the region is going to remain dry and hot. Daily high temperatures and humidity should remain just below the level at which the National Weather Service would issue a heat advisory, however.

Tuesday through Thursday

Pressures should begin to fall a little bit by Tuesday or so, and in addition we should see some rising instability in the atmosphere.

In these forecasts from the European model, we can see pressure falling from this weekend (top image) to more moderate levels from Tuesday through Friday next week. (Weather Bell)
In these forecasts from the European model, we can see pressure falling from this weekend (top image) to more moderate levels from Tuesday through Friday next week (bottom image). (Weather Bell)

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Finally, after the Tax Day floods, the Addicks and Barker Reservoirs have emptied

Nearly three months have come and gone since the Tax Day Floods ravaged the Houston area in April. As you may recall, during these storms rain fell at rates as high as 1 inch in just 5 minutes over parts of Harris County, with a maximum hourly rate of 4.7 inches. The rain topped out at 16.7 inches in just 12 hours over western Harris County. All told, Harris County averaged 7.75″ of rainfall for the event— equivalent to 240 billion gallons of water falling on the area.

One of the most memorable aspects of those floods came when both the Addicks and Barker Reservoirs filled up, and flooded the adjacent Highway 6. These watersheds located upstream of Houston provide flood damage reduction along Buffalo Bayou downstream of the reservoirs and through the center of the city.

A view of the flooded Addicks Reservoir. (John Chandler/Flickr)
A view of the flooded Addicks Reservoir. (John Chandler/Flickr)

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