Good morning. After some slightly drier air brought a pleasant day to the Houston region on Sunday, we should see one more sunny and warm—but not excessively hot—day before the area settles back into a muggy, warm and on-and-off wet pattern.
Monday
Houston will enjoy another mostly sunny day, with highs likely in the upper 80s. Some coastal areas may see showers during the afternoon, with warmer temperatures. But all in all, for the first half of September, today will be a pretty nice day with moderately lower humidity levels.
In this water vapor image you can see a pocket of drier air over Houston. It will be replaced by Gulf moisture later this week. (NOAA)
Thanks to a cool front stalled across the area, Houston feels a little bit cooler, and just a bit drier this morning. It’s definitely not fall—but it feels pretty decent.
The net effect of this drier air filtering into the region is that we should see decidedly fewer rain showers for a couple of days. Some spotty showers will be possible along and near the coast later this afternoon, but for inland areas rain chances should be near zero with highs near 90 degrees under mostly sunny skies. Similar conditions should prevail on Monday, with only slight rain chances.
Weak, northerly winds will make for slightly drier conditions today and Monday. (Windyty)
The intensity of showers near Sugar Land and Pearland on Wednesday afternoon surprised me somewhat, as isolated areas saw in excess of three inches of rain along the sea breeze boundary.
Thursday
We’re going to see warm conditions again today, with high temperatures likely rising into the low- to mid-90s. We could again see some sea breeze shower activity this afternoon, with some scattered storms. However I would be surprised if the storms were quite so intense as those on Wednesday, which necessitated a flood advisory. In any case, expect any storms to die down in the early evening hours with the loss of heating.
Friday through Sunday
For this weekend, alas, a cold front appears likely to stall out well before reaching the greater Houston metro area. At the same time some lower pressure will move in from the east, into the upper Texas coast, and draw upon moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The net effect of this for Houston is that high temperatures should be around 90 degrees this weekend, under partly to mostly cloudy skies, with summer-like humidity. There will be periodic, scattered rain showers as well, although most areas will likely see less than 1 inch of rain in total.
Progress of cold front as of next Wednesday morning, according to the GFS model. (Weather Bell)
Well, so much for isolated showers this afternoon.
A strong cluster of thunderstorms has developed to the south of Houston this afternoon, near Pearland and the Clear Lake area. The National Weather Service has issued a flood advisory for the regions show below for this afternoon, where some storms are producing 3 inches per hour.
Area of flood advisory. (National Weather Service)
