Eric Berger

A slight reprieve possible this weekend, before more heat next week

The heat continues, unabated. Through Tuesday the region’s average temperature is 88.2 degrees, which keeps Houston on track for the warmest July in the city’s history (87.5 degrees in 1980). We might see a bit of relief this weekend, but then we go back into the fryer.

Today through Friday

Our heat should persist at these near record levels during the rest of the work week, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s. However I believe overnight lows may drop a degree or two back into the upper 70s for most areas. Also, as we are not under a dominating ridge of high pressure some afternoon showers are possible, although I don’t think coverage will be greater than 10 to 20 percent of the region—and that may be optimistic.

You'd have to go all the way to Perico, in the Panhandle, to find some relief from hot temperatures in Texas this morning. (Weather Bell)
You’d have to go all the way to Perico, in the Panhandle, to find some relief from hot temperatures in Texas this morning. (Weather Bell)

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Houston nearing record for most 80-degree mornings in a month

The heat goes on—especially the early morning heat. Today will likely be July’s ninth morning of 80-degree or warmer morning lows. According to Matt Lanza, that’s now third most for any July on record in Houston, behind only 2009 (12), and 1963 (10). What’s more, the maximum number of 80-degree mornings in any month in the city’s history is 14, recorded back in August, 1964. It now seems probable we will blow through that record as it is only July 12th. I recently shared some thoughts on why we are seeing more warm nights in Houston.

Anyway, let’s jump into the forecast.

Today

If you remember what the weather was like on Monday, we’ve got a near carbon copy today. Hot, sunny, and only very, very isolated rain showers.

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Houston on pace to have its warmest July on record

Near the beginning of the move Good Morning, Vietnam a character played by Robin Williams, US Air Force radio personality Adrian Cronauer, gives the forecast for South Vietnam. During this region’s heat in July and August in Houston I’m often reminded of these lines from the the movie, which now is nearly 30 years old:

The weather out there today is hot and —-ty with continued hot and —-ty in the afternoon. Tomorrow a chance of continued crappy with a pissy weather front coming down from the north. Basically, it’s hotter than a snake’s ass in a wagon rut.

Anyway, that’s a good forecast for Houston this week. Through 10 days it has been a miserable July, with the average temperature (a combination of highs and lows) running at 88.1 degrees through 10 days. That puts us on pace to have the hottest July on record in the city of Houston, eclipsing 1980, 2009 and 2011. It’s a record I hope we don’t set.

Today and Tuesday

A combination of lingering high pressure and dry lower atmosphere (although not at the surface, where humidity levels will remain high) will combine to shut down nearly all chances of rain. We may see a few stray showers develop south or southeast of Houston—but I doubt it. Highs will remain in the mid-90s, with lows around 80 degrees.

Yuck.

The rain accumulation forecast for now through Wednesday is pretty grim. (Weather Bell)
The rain accumulation forecast for now through Wednesday is pretty grim. (Weather Bell)

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Why Houston is seeing more warm nights

Let’s talk about minimum temperatures. The city of Houston has now recorded five consecutive mornings of 80-degree plus temperatures. This average of 81.6 degrees trails only a five-day period in 2011 (81.8 degrees) for the warmest stretch of minimum temperatures in about 120 years of records for the city of Houston.

Looking across the entire globe, climate scientists have been noticing this trend for some time—that as the planet warms nighttime temperatures appear to be warming faster than daytime temperatures. In Chapter 2 of the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the authors write, “Confidence of accelerated increases in minimum temperature extremes compared to maximum temperature extremes is high due to the more consistent patterns of warming in minimum temperature extremes globally.”

Why is this happening?

Now there’s no question that development around northern Houston has played some role in warmer temperatures around the National Weather Service’s official station at Bush Intercontinental Airport. This is the so-called Urban Heat Island effect. However it would be wrong to attribute the nighttime warming to urbanization alone, as the global trends are pretty clear. Warmer nights locally are consistent with a warmer world.

How the day-night thickness of the boundary layer may affect temperatures. (Richard Davy/Bjerknes Center)
How the day-night thickness of the boundary layer may affect temperatures. (Richard Davy/Bjerknes Center)

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