Patricia has weakened into a tropical depression over central Mexico this afternoon, and it’s continuing to move north-northeast toward Texas. Although its circulation has diminished dramatically, its remnants will combine with an upper-level disturbance moving into Texas from the northwest, and also draw moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
It looks something like this on the surface wind map:
Surface winds at noon. (earth.nullschool.net)
This will lead to a substantial rain event for Texas, including the upper Texas coast. The principal threat remains heavy rain, and more specifically very intense hourly rain rates that exceed the capability of roads and bayous to carry the water away.
The mountainous terrain of Mexico has shredded the once incredibly powerful Hurricane Patricia, and the system is now a tropical storm as it races northeast toward its soggy destiny with Texas. Patricia will combine with a slow moving cool front and ample Gulf moisture to create a potentially dangerous situation tonight in the greater Houston area.
RAIN ACCUMULATION
Forecast models continue to predict an extreme rainfall event for the Lone Star State, and it appears increasingly likely the heaviest precipitation today and Sunday will come along the upper Texas coast. To start with, here’s the latest precipitation forecast from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, essentially the best estimates from their meteorologists assessing all of the models for rain between this morning and the end of the event on Sunday night:
(Weather Bell)
The first thing you’ll probably notice is a staggering 11-inch bullseye over Galveston County and Galveston Bay. This indicates the kind of very, very heavy rain this system and its associated tropical air mass are capable of.
After 17 great years at the Houston Chronicle I’m moving to a new position at Ars Technica covering space. However the editors at Ars realize I have an interest in weather and a dedicated audience, so they agreed to allow me to continue writing about weather for the greater Houston area. I plan to deliver my brand of informative, hype-free forecasting at this site, so if that’s what you liked at the Chronicle, that’s what you’ll get here.
It’s wonderful, really, to be able to combine my two great professional interests. And it’s great to get to continue to interact with the tens of thousands of readers who really seem to value my content.
Space shuttle Endeavour flies over Houston in 2012. (NASA).
I should also note that Ars is my full-time job, and this site is more of a hobby. For me, however, it’s a very important hobby. I’ll still provide a daily update on weekday mornings, regardless of whether there’s no inclement weather in sight, or all heck is breaking loose. When more significant weather threatens I will work along with Matt Lanza to ensure greater Houston area readers have the information they need to know. This weekend, for example, I will provide wall-to-wall coverage of the impending storms.
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