Eric Berger

With less than a week to go, sunny and cold conditions most likely for Houston marathon

January 10, 2016 at 4:29 pm by Eric Berger

Less than a week to go now until the start of the marathon, and we’re getting closer to nailing down the forecast, too. The global forecast models are coming into better agreement about the timing of a cold front — likely sometime on Friday or early Saturday morning. This would set up clear and cool conditions for Sunday morning.

Now the usual caveats apply, a forecast made seven days out is going to have some element of uncertainty. But both the European and Canadian models have been fairly consistent with this scenario, and now the GFS model has come into line. Therefore I am beginning to have a decent amount of confidence in colder-than-normal conditions for the morning of the marathon, with low temperatures that morning between 30 and 40 degrees, most likely.

Canadian model forecast for temperatures on Sunday, at 6 a.m. (Weather Bell)

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Season’s first freeze possible for northern Houston on Monday

January 10, 2016 at 12:16 pm by Eric Berger

Temperatures dipped into the upper 30s across most of Houston on Sunday morning, and Monday morning will be a few degrees cooler. But will the region finally see its first freeze?

It’s going to be close, and the answer likely depends upon high clouds, which are difficult to predict. The freezing line will probably fall somewhere north of Interstate 10, likely near Bush Intercontinental Airport. Some of the best model guidance predicts temperatures between 32 and 34 degrees at this location on Monday morning. For areas further north there should be little question about seeing freezing temperatures for a few hours on Monday.

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Houston Marathon forecast: 8 days to go, strength of front remains uncertain

January 9, 2016 at 3:43 pm by Eric Berger

Whereas they were once consistent, the global forecast models are all over the place in terms of temperatures for the morning of Sunday, Jan. 17th. They range from the mid-20s (Canadian) to low-50s (GFS) in terms of the temperature at start time.

This tells us the models are still having a difficult time handling the timing and intensity of a cold front that will probably arrive shortly before the marathon. In looking at the best forecast model, the European, it calls for temperatures in the upper 30s. However the ensemble members predict a very broad range of temperatures from the low 20s to upper 50s. The highest confidence range is from 32 to 45 degrees.

The GFS model has turned warmer for the starting line of the Houston Marathon. But given its lack of consistency I would doubt it at this time. (Weather Bell)

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Unofficial forecast for the Houston Marathon: Potentially very cold

January 8, 2016 at 3:04 pm by Eric Berger

Dear runners, how cold do you like it?

I must caution that we’re still nine days out from the start of the Houston Marathon, but whooboy right now we are setting up for cold conditions. Three of the major global models, the GFS, Canadian and European, all show a fairly strong cold front moving into Houston on the Friday or Saturday before the marathon, with race time temperatures in the low- to upper-30s. That’s right, I would not rule out freezing conditions at the run’s 7 a.m. CT start time Sunday.

This morning I spoke with Joe Bastardi, a meteorologist with Weather Bell whose forecast skills I respect, and he says when it gets cold like this the Canadian model does pretty well, and at this point its the coldest (see attached image). If the front has moved through I don’t think we will have to worry about rainfall, the big concern will be wind chill, even 10 mph at that temperature would make it feel like the 20s during the run.

How cold is too cold? Here's the Canadian model temperature forecast for 6 a.m. Sunday, Jan. 17th. (Weather Bell) — How cold is too cold? Here’s the Canadian model temperature forecast for 6 a.m. Sunday, Jan. 17th. (Weather Bell)

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