Eric Berger

In brief: Last week we spoke about a brief reprieve in strong winds over the area. It now appears as though that reprieve will end on Thursday, with gusty winds returning through the weekend. The holiday weekend also looks fairly warm and humid, with a decent chance of light rain on Easter Sunday itself.

Tuesday

A weak front is moving into the area, bringing slightly cooler and drier air with it. As a result temperatures today will top out at about 80 degrees, with lower humidity. The front will briefly produce northwesterly winds, gusting perhaps to 15 or 20 mph. However, those winds will pretty quickly shift to come from the east. Skies will be mostly sunny this afternoon. Lows will fall to 60 to 65 degrees tonight in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland. This may not sound like much, but it will be our coldest night for at least the next week.

Wednesday

This will be a pleasant, sunny day with high temperatures of around 80 degrees. We should see southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts possibly, and this will be a harbinger for the return of higher humidity levels. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the upper 60s.

Thursday and Friday

We will end the week will a pair of breezy, partly cloudy, and warm days. Highs on Thursday and Friday will climb into the mid- to upper-80s, with moderate humidity levels—which is to say dewpoints in the lower 60s, so a tad humid but not anything like Houston will feel later this summer. Strong winds are also back on the menu. Both days will be rather windy, with southerly gusts up to 30 mph or higher. Nights will be warm, in the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should also be windy and warm. An upper-level disturbance will approach the area, but it is not clear that it will get close enough to the Houston area to produce much rain. We can be confident in warm temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s on both days, with mostly cloudy skies. We’ll also continue to see those southerly gusts of up to 25 or 30 mph. As for rain, chances are probably less than 10 percent on Saturday, and in the vicinity 30 to 50 percent on Sunday. If it does rain on Easter Sunday, I think showers will be light for the most part. Organized thunderstorms appear unlikely in the Houston metro area.

Next week

A front will approach the area on Monday, but right now the majority of our modeling guidance suggests it will stall out north of Houston. That means we will probably be left in a warm and muggy pattern. The good news for our gardens and soils is that rain chances do look better next week, especially in the Wednesday time frame. However since that is more than a week away, I would not have the utmost confidence just yet.

In brief: A weak front tonight will bring some slightly drier air into the region, but for the most part this week will be characterized by days in the 80s with plenty of sunshine. Rainfall will remain scarce until the weekend, but a pattern change next week could improve our chances for wet stuff.

A dry spring

It has not rained much this spring. Although some coastal areas have soils characterized as “abnormally dry,” the Houston region is not in a drought. However, I have noticed a few of my neighbors putting out sprinklers of late. I had to double check my calendar to make sure we’re still in April, not June. And sure enough we are. Over the last 30 days, much of the Houston region has received only 25 to 50 percent of their normal rainfall for the year. While everything is still green, for now, the underlying soils in most areas are pretty dry.

When temperatures are in the 70s it takes a long time for dry soils to turn to parched soils. However, we are now seeing days in the 80s, with the sunshine reaching a higher angle in the sky. Accordingly to stave off drought we are going to need some precipitation. That’s not going to happen for much of this week, but if we look at the longer term forecast, there are some hits of a pattern change this weekend, and next week.

Monday

It is a warm morning, with much of the area near 70 degrees. Despite a few low-lying clouds this morning, I still expect mostly sunny skies this afternoon, with high temperatures reaching the mid- to upper-80s. With dewpoints in the lower 60s it will feel moderately humid. Winds will be out of the south at 5 to 10 mph. Expect another mild night, with lows in the 60s. Some time after a midnight, and it likely won’t be perceptible, a weak front will push into the Houston area.

Tuesday and Wednesday

The main effect of this front will be to bring some moderately drier air into the region. So Tuesday, and to some extent Wednesday, will feel a bit less humid. Tuesday may start out mostly cloudy as a result of the front, but I don’t expect much, if any rain with its passage. Expect high temperatures in the mid-80s, with lows on Tuesday night dropping into the low 60s for most of the region (it will be even cooler to the northeast of the city). Wednesday will bring highs in the low- to mid-80s but already winds will be turning to come from the southeast. So by the afternoon on Wednesday I expect humidity levels to be on the rise with fairly robust southeasterly winds.

Thursday and Friday

As a result, I expect the end of the week to be partly to mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the upper 80s. Some inland locations may reach 90 degrees. So all in all, pretty warm and humid for April. Lows will only fall to around 70 degrees. There will he the slightest chance of some showers by Friday or so, but most of us should remain dry.

Saturday and Easter Sunday

Saturday should bring more of the same: partly sunny, warm, and humid. Perhaps we’ll see a few stray showers. However at some point this weekend high pressure should shift away, and this will open us up to somewhat better rain chances. For now, I’ll say we have about a one-in-three chance of some showers on Easter Sunday, to go along with warm and humid conditions. It’s difficult to say much more than this with any precision but it’s something we’re watching.

Next week

Most of next weeks looks to remain fairly warm and somewhat humid. Think days in the mid- to upper-80s with nights around 70 degrees, give or take. The big thing I’m watching for is rain chances, especially in the absence of high pressure. The “bear” case is perhaps 1 inch of rain next week, but the “bull” case is several inches. Some of the AI-based weather models are on the bullish side, showing several inches of total rainfall next week. We’ll see. By that point, our soils will be happy for what we can get.

In brief: A weak front arrives in Houston this morning to drop humidity levels down for a couple of days. Beyond this, the region will see warm weather for the next 10 days, with sunny or mostly sunny skies. Really conditions won’t change much. If Houston’s weather were like this all of the time, Matt and I would be out of job. Or, in this case, a hobby. Have a great weekend!

Friday

Temperatures are in the low 60s this morning, and we are again going to have sunny skies today. What will be a little different is winds, which will shift to come from the northeast this morning at 5 to 10 mph. This is due to the passage of a weak front that will move offshore, bringing dewpoints down into the 40s for today and Saturday before the onshore flow brings them back up. Highs today will reach the mid- to upper-80s in Houston. Lows should drop into the mid- to upper-50s for most locations, and this will be our coolest night for some time.

Saturday and Sunday

This weekend looks to bring sunny weather into the Houston region should you have any outdoor plans. And really, you should. Look for highs in the low 80s with sunny skies on Saturday, and continued dry air. As light southerly winds return later in the day look for lows to only drop to around 60 degrees in Houston on Saturday night. Sunday will be a little less ideal, with southerly winds picking up to 10 to 15 mph, and it looks like we may see some gusts in the range of 25 mph. So expect higher humidity to go along with temperatures in the mid-80s. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the mid-60s.

Next week

As Matt mentioned in yesterday’s post, next week’s weather looks to be more or less the same. Most days will bring highs in the 80s with nighttime temperatures in the 60s. We may push upwards toward 90 degrees by the end of the work week. Dewpoints are going to hover around the upper 50s to lower 60s which is a tad humid, but far from uncomfortable like we can see in Houston. Days should bring a few more clouds than this week, but we’re still going to see lots of sunshine. Rain chances look low until at least next weekend. Speaking of next weekend, I don’t yet have great confidence in the forecast for Easter Sunday, but highs in the 80s seem most likely. At this point, however, we cannot rule out a chance of showers.

In brief: It’s rather cold across the state of Texas this morning, with nearly all of the state in the 30s and 40s outside of The Valley. Because we’re nearing the middle of April, the cold weather will not last, and indeed I don’t think it will get this cold in Texas for the next six months. Expect warmer temperatures for the rest of the week, but high humidity will remain at bay for awhile.

Midway through spring

Spring is by no means over for the greater Houston area, as temperatures outside this morning demonstrate. Pretty much the entire metro area outside of areas far inland (Conroe, 38 degrees) and Galveston (56 degrees) has fallen into the low- to mid-40s this morning. This is by no means extraordinary, as the record low temperature for today in Houston is 35 degrees, set back in 1971.

However, temperatures this morning are still running about 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year, and looking ahead at the next two weeks I do not see another strong front in the cards. Therefore, for the urban core of Houston and areas closer to the coast, I expect that this morning may well be the final morning in the 40s of this season. We may not see its like again until October, or even November.

Tuesday

Miracle of miracle, the winds this morning are calm across the region, and are likely to remain so today. With sunny skies we should warm into the mid-70s this afternoon, with continued very dry air. Seriously, today is going to be one of the nicest days of the year, with exceptional weather. Lows tonight in Houston will drop into the lower 50s for most locations. Areas west and north of the city should dip into the upper 40s once again.

Wednesday

Wednesday will be a slightly warmer, and a slightly more humid version of Tuesday. We are talking high temperatures of about 80 degrees, and lows dropping to about 60 degrees on Wednesday night. Winds will have turned to come from the south, at perhaps 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We should see sunny skies throughout the rest of the week, with high temperatures varying between 80 and 85 degrees. A weak front arrives on Friday morning to knock some of the humidity out of the air, but overall with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s the air is going to feel modestly dry. Nights should, generally, fall to around 60 degrees with inland areas a bit cooler and the coast a bit warmer. By Sunday we may see southerly winds become more pronounced, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible.

Next week

Next week should be a little bit warmer, with a few more clouds. I think we will be in the 80s for the most part, with nights in the 60s. There will be some humidity, sure, but it won’t feel like Houston humidity can during the depths of the summer. As for rain chances, overall chances are quite low until next Thursday or Friday, at least.