Matt Lanza

Happy cold front day again, Houston! We have already had our first front of the season, but this will be our first real legitimately autumn-like front today. It will be warm and muggy this morning but cool and breezy this afternoon. It’s a “dress for two seasons” kind of morning.

Today

As of 5 AM today, the cold front was located northwest of Houston.

Ahead of the front in Houston, it’s near 80 degrees and humid this morning. It was just moving through College Station as I write this, where temperatures will drop from the upper-70s to the mid-60s over an hour or two.

Showers have popped up ahead of the front in a few spots, but most rainfall today will hold off until the front arrives. The front should get to Waller County and western Montgomery County by 7 AM or so, into northwest Harris County, Katy, and The Woodlands around 8 AM, through Houston between 9 and 10 AM, and southeast of Houston to the coast by 11 AM or Noon.

Behind the front, look for gusty winds and scattered showers or storms. Total rainfall will be hit or miss, with some places seeing just trace amounts and others seeing perhaps a quarter or half-inch of rain. Some light rain may linger once the steadier showers pass.

If the early week front disappointed you because of the lack of temperature drop, then you’ll probably enjoy today’s front. Temperatures will drop into the 60s behind the front and stay there or slowly fall for the rest of the day. Look for clouds and possibly some showers to linger into the afternoon. Along with that, expect wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph, not problematic but certainly making it feel very fall-like.

Tonight

Ahhhhhh…

It will still be a bit damp tonight, along with a breeze, but if you’ve been waiting for autumn, here you go. Expect lows to range from the 40s up north and west of Houston to the 50s in the city and suburbs to 60 or just shy of it near the Gulf.

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This week has not been oppressively hot and humid, but it still has been rather toasty for the end of September. That’s not going to change anytime soon unfortunately.

Today

The amount of moisture available in the atmosphere today will be a good bit more than what was available yesterday, which means we should see at least a smattering of some showers and storms pop up through the day. Radar already shows some showers this morning south of Houston toward Lake Jackson and Angleton.

Based on this and weather modeling, the highest rain chances today should be south and west of Houston, though everyone has at least a chance of a shower. Outside of that, it will be partly sunny and continued hot. Look for high temperatures near 90 degrees.

Weekend

Moisture levels will slowly drop this weekend, but with onshore flow continuing, we have to at least mention a passing shower or storm Saturday and Sunday afternoons. If you’ve got outdoor plans this weekend, you should be able to go forward with them without much issue. You may encounter a brief downpour but probably nothing worse. Daytime highs will likely be up around 90 again. Nighttime lows, which have actually not been too bad (in the low-70s) this week will likely creep back into at least the mid-70s inland and warmer at the coast.

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Imelda is thankfully in our rear-view mirror now, and we can begin the process of cleaning up from the latest in a slew of problematic flooding events in Southeast Texas in recent years. Eric and I will take some time to process this and recap it for you in some capacity next week. The weather doesn’t stop, so let’s discuss our weekend.

First, let’s talk about residual Imelda-related issues. Most bayous across central, southern, and western Harris County are back in their banks this morning. We do still have flooding issues in eastern Harris County.

• Greens Bayou is still out of banks downstream of Highway 59 to the Ship Channel. It has crested and should be back in its banks soon at Mount Houston. Greens will continue slowly falling downstream today.
• Garners Bayou is out of its banks at the Beltway, but is falling.
• Cedar Bayou has crested at Highway 90 and is falling. It should crest soon at FM 1942.
• Both the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto River have crested in major flood. They should both be back in moderate flood later today.

The San Jacinto River near Sheldon (above) continues to rise and should crest this afternoon before slowly falling this weekend.

Folks living along the Brazos River, you have nothing to worry about, as rains both over you and upriver were not too significant this week.

Those trying to travel to or from Beaumont, note that I-10 is shutdown at the San Jacinto River due to multiple barge strikes. And it sounds like it might be awhile.

I-10 East Freeway EB and WB at the San Jacinto River all mainlanes are closed. Several barges have impacted the bridges at this location. This is a developing situation that is further enhanced by the river rising. No est. time on reopening. Use SH 225 as an alternate. pic.twitter.com/DLpw4YH4TZ

— TxDOT- HOU District (@TxDOTHouston) September 20, 2019

I-10 also remains closed in both directions between Winnie and Beaumont due to high water.

Today

Not everyone will see showers or storms today, but they will be around. Any storms today will probably move south to north at a slow, steady clip, so they could put down a quick inch or so of rain. While this won’t lead to widespread problems, there could be a handful of locations today that see some short-fused street flooding or some rises on bayous. Again, we don’t expect anything significant. With a good deal of clouds still, we should see highs in the mid- to upper-80s.

Weekend

Both Saturday and Sunday should see a mix of sun and clouds with just a chance of a shower or storm in a few spots. We’re sort of back to typical late summer this weekend. Look for highs near 90 degrees or in the low-90s and lows in the mid- to upper-70s.

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After a mostly benign afternoon, with the exception of some street flooding in Galveston, we are back in the thick of things now, as Imelda’s Wednesday night show is underway.

We just had a reported tornado west of Mont Belvieu, and a funnel cloud sighted in Deer Park. Other storms across the area are exhibiting at least some weak rotation, and it would not be surprising to see at least one or two more tornado warnings get hoisted before all is said and done.

We just got this photo of what appears to be a tornado on the ground. Brian Lockwood told us he snapped this near N. Main and 1942 headed towards Mont Belvieu. pic.twitter.com/ipA6S0bAg5

— Brett Buffington (@BBuffingtonHTX) September 18, 2019

Tornado confirmed. This is looking north from Baytown toward Crosby. 📹: Deepa Singh

More to follow at https://t.co/r8H6nC3fG3. pic.twitter.com/B58ijKEdcr

— Travis Herzog (@TravisABC13) September 18, 2019

https://twitter.com/Monsterbuddy__/status/1174449694338113536

In terms of rainfall, a transient heavy rain band is setup along and south of I-10 from near Fulshear through Baytown as of 5:35 PM. That does not appear to be a “training” band at this time, but we’re watching to see if additional development will occur on the western flank. A secondary band is setup over Wharton County moving toward hard hit Matagorda County and parts of Brazoria County as well.

So what are the expectations for the rest of tonight? I’ve tried to digest as much observational and model data as I can, and here are the key bullet points I think we can emphasize.

• For Downtown Houston and points north and west (including The Woodlands, Conroe, Katy, Sugar Land, Kingwood, and Humble): Periods of heavy rain through the night. It may be more dry than wet in many locations, and at this point, I don’t see much reason to be too worried about things in those areas. We will watch late tonight for some heavier rain perhaps in the city of Houston or up toward Spring, Kingwood, and Humble.
• South of Houston (including Pearland & northern Brazoria County) and southeast to Galveston County (Texas City, League City, Webster, and Friendswood): Periods of heavy rain early, perhaps becoming a bit more intermittent as the evening goes on. Given heavier rains here earlier today, some flash flooding is very possible.
• Far south of Houston (Matagorda County, Lake Jackson, Freeport): Heavy rain this evening, with potential for another period or two of heavy rain overnight. Rain totals should be significantly lower than earlier today though.
• Eastern parts of Harris County (Baytown, Mont Belvieu, Crosby): Heavy rain at times this evening, and then occasional periods of rain overnight. More concentrated, heavier rain possible toward daybreak. Flash flooding is a possibility.
• Far eastern parts of the region toward Beaumont (Liberty, Hardin, Chambers Counties east to Beaumont): Frequent periods of heavy rain this evening and overnight. Flash flooding likely in spots. Significant flash flooding possible closer to Beaumont and perhaps points north.

I tried to cover as much as possible there. Folks farther northeast, in San Jacinto, Polk, and Tyler Counties will also see periods of heavy rain tonight and potentially some flash flooding.

Weather modeling has been all over the map in terms of how things finish late tonight and Thursday morning to the point of agitation, to be honest. However, some newer data is indicating that a more concentrated band of heavy rain could develop across Grimes and Montgomery Counties into northeast Harris and Liberty Counties, extending east, again, toward Beaumont. Should that occur, significant rain and potential flash flooding would occur, which could include The Woodlands, Spring, Humble, Bush Airport, and Kingwood. I want to just urge caution on that, as we still have some uncertainty surrounding how that will unfold. We will either update you later this evening or very early tomorrow morning.