Matt Lanza

We hit 84° officially at IAH yesterday, matching our warmest day of the year so far. These temperatures are more typical for early May than mid-March (and today’s morning lows around 70° are more typical for late May). So for how long will this continue? Let’s explain.

Today through Sunday

Yesterday I mentioned we were pretty much on autopilot, and we are still. For today, we’re slowly losing the fog that’s been with us most mornings this week. Still, some patchy fog at least is possible south and east of Houston. Otherwise, it’s just cloudy. Look for another day of low- to mid-80s with a mix of clouds and sun developing.

Heading into tomorrow and Sunday, we should still see some patchy morning fog or low clouds giving way to sunshine in the afternoon. We’ll see temperatures within a couple degrees of 80 away from the coast (where it will be somewhat cooler). A shower cannot be ruled out on either Saturday or Sunday, but I think the best chance of any rain will be north of Houston toward The Woodlands or Conroe or even points north from there. Just don’t be shocked if you see some raindrops for a time, especially Sunday.

Sunday night and Monday

Humidity will remain high, but things actually get interesting by late Sunday. One of our better performing models this winter in terms of cold front strength and orientation is suggesting that what we call a “backdoor” cold front is going to slide through the area later Sunday or Sunday evening.

We call it a backdoor front because it usually comes from the north and east, rather than the more common north and west. So what does it mean? Sunday should still be warm and humid, regardless. But if that front sneaks in here late PM or in the evening, we would see temperatures drop off a good 10-15 degrees Sunday night, perhaps into the 50s on Monday morning. The best chance of this occurring would be north of I-10. I don’t think this will make it all the way through the area, and even if it did, it would begin retreating back north as a warm front by Monday afternoon. Still, for those that want even a brief break from the humidity, this would be pleasant. I’d enter this one with low expectations and enjoy a pleasant surprise if you get one on Monday.

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Good morning! We will get into the weather in a moment. Just doing our public service announcement here: With the remainder of the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo being cancelled, we will obviously cease rodeo forecasts. We know how disappointing the cancellation is to so many people, us included. Local officials obviously determined that the risk is significant enough to take these precautions, and you’re definitely seeing that in many places right now. While not a meteorological event, there are so many parallels I keep finding between the information flow with COVID-19 and how we cover hurricanes or floods. Remember, as it is with weather, make sure you’re getting your information from reputable sources, and heed the advice of local officials. Harris County has a dashboard already setup that will have the latest information, both from a big picture and locally.

The only interjection we can really make is that there have been comments made by some folks that the threat will end once the weather warms up. They may be a bit overconfident. A colleague, Bob Henson, writing for Weather Underground discussed this in depth the other day, and I’d encourage you to read that article to get a better understanding of the actual science and potential scenarios of how weather may impact the progression of the virus. A lot of unknowns, a lot of weird stuff going on, and a lot of drastic measures being put in place to make an effort to flatten the curve. As we do with storms, we’ll get through it all. Eric and I will continue to provide our typical daily updates of course, though hopefully the weather doesn’t add to our woes in the weeks and months ahead.

Alright, on to the weather.

Today

Dense fog advisories are posted once again this morning along the coast and just inland, as we again have some fog in place. This is becoming “the norm” for now, and I would expect this continues to some extent off and on into next week.

Much like yesterday, the fog and clouds should slowly clear this morning, leading to probably a nice afternoon, albeit a warm one again.

Look for highs in the 80s for most folks away from the coast with continued high humidity. Our normal high temperature today is 72° at IAH Airport. More impressively, our normal low is 52°, which we aren’t even in the same area code as right now.

Friday and weekend

So the chance of rain this weekend will probably be higher than it is today and was yesterday. But it will still probably be on the low side. Most of us should remain dry, but a few of us could see a shower on Friday, Saturday, or Sunday. The highest odds are probably still north of Houston, even north of Conroe. Look for more nighttime fog at the coast and a good deal of cloud cover each day. We should see at least a little sunshine here and there but perhaps a bit less than we’ve had lately.

High temperatures will be in the 70s to low-80s and low temperatures in the 60s to perhaps even near 70 degrees. Expect southerly winds of about 5 to 15 mph.

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We got some sunshine yesterday after all, pushing temperatures up to and over 80° (several degrees above normal) in much of the area. And then the rains came for some of us. The area near Greenspoint hit the jackpot yesterday with about 2″ of rain.

While I don’t expect as much activity today, the chance of a downpour cannot be ruled out.

Today

Dense fog has developed, mainly from Houston south and east this morning, and advisories are posted. Give yourself a few extra minutes heading out the door this morning if you are commuting in those areas.

Half-mile or lower visibility is being reported along the coast and at least as far north as Hobby Airport and Southwest Houston. Like yesterday, fog should lift and dissipate through this morning, setting up a partly or even mostly sunny afternoon. Look for temperatures to surge back into the 80s again. As noted above, a shower or downpour is not likely but is possible today.

Fog is possible again tonight, especially from Houston south and east toward the coast.

Thursday and Friday

Rain chances look minimal both of the upcoming two days, and I would expect more of the same. Look for morning low clouds and/or fog to yield partly to mostly cloudy skies during the late morning and afternoon. High temperatures will range from the upper-70s to low-80s, slightly cooler at the coast, with morning lows generally in the 60s. Mostly light winds are expected.

Weekend

Rain chances look fairly low this coming weekend, so I would go forward with whatever you have planned. Low does not mean “zero,” however, and as of now, Sunday carries a better chance of showers than Saturday. The best chance will be from about Conroe northward on either day. It looks like a minor story right now, with no serious rain expected in our area, but nevertheless it is one we’ll keep watching for any changes.

Temperatures should be generally within a stone’s throw of 80 each day, with nighttime temperatures not far off 70 in a lot of spots.

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After a dreary Monday, we’re starting off with a dreary Tuesday now. But! I do think there is more sunshine “risk” in the forecast today and tomorrow. Let’s discuss.

Today

There are Dense Fog Advisories posted west and north of Houston this morning and along the immediate coast, as visibilities have dropped overnight.

Most of Harris County is not dealing with fog, except near the bay. Galveston is at a half-mile, as are parts of Liberty County, the Brazos Valley, and areas west of about Katy. As fog dissipates later this morning and afternoon, look for mostly cloudy skies. Hopefully some sunshine, but I think tomorrow has the better chance. A shower, downpour, or stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out today. Temperatures this afternoon should get close to 80 under cloud cover, or perhaps into the low-80s with sunshine.

If you’re going to check out NCT 127 tonight at the rodeo, temperatures should drop from the mid-70s early this evening to near 70 by 9 or 10 PM. It will be humid, and it could be a foggy drive home for you, so make sure you’re able to take a little extra time heading home from the rodeo festivities.

Tonight & Wednesday

Look for dense to again develop this evening in spots, probably before midnight. Fog may be a bit more widespread tonight and tomorrow, and it will linger through at least mid-morning on Wednesday. All areas should clear out a good bit Wednesday afternoon, except for the immediate coast, where fog could drift in and out through the day. With some sunshine, I see no issues with us pushing back toward 80 or into the low-80s on Wednesday afternoon.

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