Matt Lanza

Houston hit 57° officially on Halloween, a couple degrees warmer than expected, which allowed us to experience the fourth coldest Halloween maximum temperature since official records began in Houston in 1889. It was the coldest Halloween since we also hit 57° back in 1993, which featured the all-time October low temperature of 29° too.

A few other superlatives across Texas from yesterday:

• Amarillo was 14° on Thursday, the second coldest October temperature on record (back to 1892).
• Lubbock hit 16° on Thursday, their coldest October morning on record (back to 1913).
• Midland hit 16° on Thursday, their coldest October morning on record (back to 1930).
• Abilene hit 20° on Thursday, their coldest October morning on record (back to 1885).
• Dallas hit 30°, their 9th earliest freeze on record.

By any measure, this is not just an early season cold air mass, this is one of the earliest wintry air masses in Texas in recent years.

Houston is close to a record low this morning, but as of 6 AM, we’re just a couple ticks short.

As I write this, Houston officially sits at 37°, our coldest temperature since at least April 2nd. We will see if we can shave another degree or two off of that reading for the official low temperature and have our coldest morning since early March. The record low this morning is 35°, set back in 1993. The coldest readings in the metro area this morning seem to be right along Spring Creek to the north, with several sites reporting 31° as of 5:30 AM. Elsewhere, Conroe is down to 30°, Navasota has hit 29°, and Huntsville shows 28° so far. Pretty chilly!

Rest of today

The rest of Friday looks great. Sunshine will dominate, with nothing more than a few high clouds and temperatures will quickly warm up through the 40s and into the 50s. Most of the area should top out around 60 degrees or a little above that with much lighter winds than yesterday.

Weekend

Both Saturday and Sunday should see mainly sunny skies. There could be a period or two of some higher clouds at times, blemishing the otherwise blue sky. But that’s about as bad as it would get. Morning lows on Saturday should still be cold, but they will end up a good bit milder than this morning, bottoming out in the low- to mid-40s.

A secondary cool front is going to push through on Saturday morning, which will just serve to reinforce the cool, dry air already over the area. Look for Saturday afternoon to still top off in the mid-60s. Sunday’s morning low and daytime high should be very similar to Saturday.

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It will feel more like a winter day today than a mid-autumn one as we struggle to get out of the 50s! Dress appropriately. Read on for details, as well as the latest thinking for Halloween.

Today

The cold front is already through basically the entire Houston area as of early this morning. Temperatures are noticeably colder this morning.

Most places have dropped into the 50s, and if they haven’t they will soon.

The heaviest rainfall is exiting Houston as I write this post. Look for continued clouds and showers or light rain through the afternoon, along with a good bit of cloud cover. There is a slight chance we do clear out in the afternoon, setting up a nice back half of the day, but right now we would lean toward clouds. Additional rainfall totals should be rather light. We did see some impressive rains overnight.

Unfortunately, the areas west of Houston that needed the rain most saw the least with a half-inch or less in most spots. As you move south or east of downtown Houston, rain totals increased. The area around Santa Fe seems to be the jackpot with close to 4 inches falling.

Temperatures should hold in the 50s for much of the day, maybe inching back up close to 60 degrees, especially west of Houston. Winds will continue gusty at times, generally up to 20 to 25 mph inland and 30 to 35 mph along the coast or bays. Higher gusts are possible in a few spots.

Saturday

If there are still a few clouds Saturday morning, don’t be surprised, but I expect we will clear out rapidly and entirely by afternoon. Winds will gradually subside as well, and all in all Saturday should be a nice day. After a morning low near 50° or in the low-50s, we should warm to the middle or upper-60s.

Sunday

Another fine day is in store on Sunday. We will start off in the 50s (near 60 along the coast) and warm into the 70s on Sunday afternoon. Look for oodles of sunshine, really a sublime day.

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After a mostly cloudy Thursday, expect sunshine to return in force today and for much of the upcoming weekend. Buckle up for a mini-temperature roller coaster though, as we crank the heat this weekend before our next cold front on Monday.

Today and Saturday

Out in the Gulf, we have Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 chugging off to the northeast this morning.

While it won’t directly impact southeast Texas, behind it, dry air is locking into place over our area. Other than a few lingering clouds south and east of Houston this morning, that spells sunshine today. Look for temperatures to be pleasantly warm and pop up to the low-80s this afternoon. Clear skies tonight may allow for a little patchy fog to develop in inland parts of the region. After that lifts on Saturday, we will see sunshine and temperatures warm up from the lower or middle 60s into the mid- to upper-80s. A stray shower is possible toward evening, mainly south of Houston.

Sunday

Sunday should see a mix of sun and clouds, though the clouds will gradually populate more of the sky on Sunday afternoon. A few showers can’t be entirely ruled out on Sunday, as a more aggressive push of warm air off the Gulf lifts north.

It will feel like late summer on Sunday, with temperatures warming from near 70° in the morning into the upper-80s Sunday afternoon. Some spots could top off around 90 degrees or so.

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In the wake of Tropical Storm Imelda, Eric and I wanted to reintroduce the Space City Weather Flood Scale, as well as place that memorable storm in its proper context. We’ll tackle Imelda in a moment, but first just a a few words about the slightly revised flood scale.

When we first introduced the flood scale, we didn’t really go too much depth on the various stages. We now realize that leaving any ambiguity in the interpretation of this was probably a mistake, so the goal here is to explain our scale in more depth and detail so readers have complete clarity on what it is meant to convey.

Origin & what it does

In the wake of Hurricane Harvey and all the flooding events in recent years, it occurred to me that we needed a way to put future rain forecasts in context with past events. Eric and I decided on a five-stage, or category scale. The scale is not meant to be perfect for everyone. Nor is it meant to replace forecast advice or direction from the National Weather Service or emergency managers. All it is meant to do is to set a realistic expectation ahead of a rainfall event that we feel could produce newsworthy flooding. We just want to attempt to help people navigate their anxieties regarding flooding that we know are widespread after recent years.

The scale is meant to characterize, in the general grand scheme of things, how the flood will be remembered for in Houston. Yes, your car may flood in a nuisance street flooding event, “only” a stage 1 on our scale. For you, personally, that may be a stage 5 life event. While that would certainly be unfortunate, for the greater Houston area, nuisance street flooding is rather common, and Stage 1 events happen at least a few times per year. What we want to do is make sure people understand that an upcoming rain event is more like that than a Memorial Day 2015 event, a Tax Day 2016 event, or an Imelda, and vice versa.

What it does not do

This scale is not going to tell you if you will experience flooding. Every flood event is unique. Just because you may have received 40 inches over 5 days and not flooded during Harvey, that does not mean you also won’t flood during a storm that only produces 6 inches of rain that falls in a single hour. Flooding in any given rainstorm depends on numerous factors, including quantity of rain, duration, intensity, neighborhood drainage, and conditions in place prior to the rain. Since no two storms are identical, you cannot always rely on past storms to tell you how future ones may impact you in your backyard.

The historic examples are not meant to apply perfectly to any one individual neighborhood. We may classify an event as stage 2 because it caused localized flooding in The Woodlands or Kingwood or Sugar Land. For some folks in those neighborhoods that flooded, that historic example may feel like a stage 3 or 4 event because of the problems it caused you and your neighbors. In other neighborhoods, you may not have noticed a drop of rain. What we want to do is put the event into context in the Greater Houston area. This scale is a perfect example of “your mileage may vary.” We recognize that, but we also know there is no perfect scale. This is the closest thing we could think of to a one-size fits all solution.

The scale is just attempting to characterize the “personality” of the flooding event we expect.

Let’s take you through each stage and discuss what each one means and what the past events did.

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