This week has not been oppressively hot and humid, but it still has been rather toasty for the end of September. That’s not going to change anytime soon unfortunately.
Today
The amount of moisture available in the atmosphere today will be a good bit more than what was available yesterday, which means we should see at least a smattering of some showers and storms pop up through the day. Radar already shows some showers this morning south of Houston toward Lake Jackson and Angleton.
A few showers across Brazoria, Matagorda, and Wharton Counties will lift north, as new showers develop today. (RadarScope)
Based on this and weather modeling, the highest rain chances today should be south and west of Houston, though everyone has at least a chance of a shower. Outside of that, it will be partly sunny and continued hot. Look for high temperatures near 90 degrees.
Weekend
Moisture levels will slowly drop this weekend, but with onshore flow continuing, we have to at least mention a passing shower or storm Saturday and Sunday afternoons. If you’ve got outdoor plans this weekend, you should be able to go forward with them without much issue. You may encounter a brief downpour but probably nothing worse. Daytime highs will likely be up around 90 again. Nighttime lows, which have actually not been too bad (in the low-70s) this week will likely creep back into at least the mid-70s inland and warmer at the coast.
Imelda is thankfully in our rear-view mirror now, and we can begin the process of cleaning up from the latest in a slew of problematic flooding events in Southeast Texas in recent years. Eric and I will take some time to process this and recap it for you in some capacity next week. The weather doesn’t stop, so let’s discuss our weekend.
First, let’s talk about residual Imelda-related issues. Most bayous across central, southern, and western Harris County are back in their banks this morning. We do still have flooding issues in eastern Harris County.
Greens Bayou is still out of banks downstream of Highway 59 to the Ship Channel. It has crested and should be back in its banks soon at Mount Houston. Greens will continue slowly falling downstream today.
Garners Bayou is out of its banks at the Beltway, but is falling.
Cedar Bayou has crested at Highway 90 and is falling. It should crest soon at FM 1942.
Both the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto River have crested in major flood. They should both be back in moderate flood later today.
The San Jacinto River below Lake Houston will rise and crest in major flood today before slowly dropping back this weekend. (NOAA/NWS)
The San Jacinto River near Sheldon (above) continues to rise and should crest this afternoon before slowly falling this weekend.
Folks living along the Brazos River, you have nothing to worry about, as rains both over you and upriver were not too significant this week.
Those trying to travel to or from Beaumont, note that I-10 is shutdown at the San Jacinto River due to multiple barge strikes. And it sounds like it might be awhile.
I-10 East Freeway EB and WB at the San Jacinto River all mainlanes are closed. Several barges have impacted the bridges at this location. This is a developing situation that is further enhanced by the river rising. No est. time on reopening. Use SH 225 as an alternate. pic.twitter.com/DLpw4YH4TZ
I-10 also remains closed in both directions between Winnie and Beaumont due to high water.
Today
Not everyone will see showers or storms today, but they will be around. Any storms today will probably move south to north at a slow, steady clip, so they could put down a quick inch or so of rain. While this won’t lead to widespread problems, there could be a handful of locations today that see some short-fused street flooding or some rises on bayous. Again, we don’t expect anything significant. With a good deal of clouds still, we should see highs in the mid- to upper-80s.
Weekend
Both Saturday and Sunday should see a mix of sun and clouds with just a chance of a shower or storm in a few spots. We’re sort of back to typical late summer this weekend. Look for highs near 90 degrees or in the low-90s and lows in the mid- to upper-70s.
After a mostly benign afternoon, with the exception of some street flooding in Galveston, we are back in the thick of things now, as Imelda’s Wednesday night show is underway.
We just had a reported tornado west of Mont Belvieu, and a funnel cloud sighted in Deer Park. Other storms across the area are exhibiting at least some weak rotation, and it would not be surprising to see at least one or two more tornado warnings get hoisted before all is said and done.
We just got this photo of what appears to be a tornado on the ground. Brian Lockwood told us he snapped this near N. Main and 1942 headed towards Mont Belvieu. pic.twitter.com/ipA6S0bAg5
In terms of rainfall, a transient heavy rain band is setup along and south of I-10 from near Fulshear through Baytown as of 5:35 PM. That does not appear to be a “training” band at this time, but we’re watching to see if additional development will occur on the western flank. A secondary band is setup over Wharton County moving toward hard hit Matagorda County and parts of Brazoria County as well.
The radar situation at 5:35 PM Wednesday shows heavy rain in spots along and south of I-10 and also toward Wharton County, heading toward Matagorda and Brazoria Counties. (RadarScope)
So what are the expectations for the rest of tonight? I’ve tried to digest as much observational and model data as I can, and here are the key bullet points I think we can emphasize.
For Downtown Houston and points north and west (including The Woodlands, Conroe, Katy, Sugar Land, Kingwood, and Humble): Periods of heavy rain through the night. It may be more dry than wet in many locations, and at this point, I don’t see much reason to be too worried about things in those areas. We will watch late tonight for some heavier rain perhaps in the city of Houston or up toward Spring, Kingwood, and Humble.
South of Houston (including Pearland & northern Brazoria County) and southeast to Galveston County (Texas City, League City, Webster, and Friendswood): Periods of heavy rain early, perhaps becoming a bit more intermittent as the evening goes on. Given heavier rains here earlier today, some flash flooding is very possible.
Far south of Houston (Matagorda County, Lake Jackson, Freeport): Heavy rain this evening, with potential for another period or two of heavy rain overnight. Rain totals should be significantly lower than earlier today though.
Eastern parts of Harris County (Baytown, Mont Belvieu, Crosby): Heavy rain at times this evening, and then occasional periods of rain overnight. More concentrated, heavier rain possible toward daybreak. Flash flooding is a possibility.
Far eastern parts of the region toward Beaumont (Liberty, Hardin, Chambers Counties east to Beaumont): Frequent periods of heavy rain this evening and overnight. Flash flooding likely in spots. Significant flash flooding possible closer to Beaumont and perhaps points north.
I tried to cover as much as possible there. Folks farther northeast, in San Jacinto, Polk, and Tyler Counties will also see periods of heavy rain tonight and potentially some flash flooding.
Weather modeling has been all over the map in terms of how things finish late tonight and Thursday morning to the point of agitation, to be honest. However, some newer data is indicating that a more concentrated band of heavy rain could develop across Grimes and Montgomery Counties into northeast Harris and Liberty Counties, extending east, again, toward Beaumont. Should that occur, significant rain and potential flash flooding would occur, which could include The Woodlands, Spring, Humble, Bush Airport, and Kingwood. I want to just urge caution on that, as we still have some uncertainty surrounding how that will unfold. We will either update you later this evening or very early tomorrow morning.
Good morning. For most of the city of Houston and points north and west, overnight rainfall caused few problems and has really only served to saturate soils a bit. Imelda’s dissipation has allowed for one main band to focus this morning well to our south into Matagorda County, which then arcs offshore back inland east of Galveston and Bolivar, aimed primarily at the Beaumont area.
Radar this morning shows extremely heavy rain well south of Houston and east of Houston, along with a smaller band northeast of downtown Houston. (RadarScope)
The radar snapshot above from just after 5 AM shows limited heavy rain around Houston, with one narrow band extending from northeast of downtown into Liberty County.
Focusing a little closer on Matagorda County for a moment: This band means business.
Rainfall rates of 3″ to 5″ in an hour were being observed in parts of Matagorda County this morning. Flash flooding is likely there. (RadarScope)
Rainfall in the hour prior to my writing this post was over 5 inches (!) in parts of the county. A gauge near Sargent has received over 18 inches of rain in the last 24 hours. Those are extreme rainfall rates that will quickly cause flash flooding in that area. Travel across much of Matagorda County is not advised this morning, and it will likely get a bit worse before it gets better. These beefier rainfall rates will likely push into southern Brazoria County as well, so folks from Lake Jackson and Freeport through Surfside will probably want to use caution this morning as well.
Rest of today
So the million dollar question is: Where is this going? Saving the meteorology lesson for another day, we often see blow ups like this in tropical systems late at night and in the morning. Over the next few hours, this will probably yield areas of heavy rainfall across Matagorda, Brazoria, and Galveston Counties. Given that many of these locations have seen 4 to 9 inches since yesterday, it won’t take much for flash flooding to begin if rainfall rates are intense enough. Rainfall may begin to taper off this afternoon or shift more to the east toward Beaumont or Port Arthur. We do expect some new showers and thunderstorms to develop in and around Houston by later this afternoon. More on that in a moment.
Bottom line: What should you do today? Be cautious, but most of us can go about most of our day as usual (unless you’re down in southern Brazoria and Matagorda Counties as noted above). If you live southeast of Houston, be extra vigilant in case rain rates escalate a bit this morning. Eric will update you on the progress of that a bit later. In Houston and points north and west, I think most daily activities will be fine through 3 to 4 PM, though it will be raining at times. After 3 to 4 PM, things could begin to go downhill a bit. Given all this, if you work daytime shifts and can work your way home a little earlier than usual today, that would not be the worst thing in the world.
Tonight
All along, it appeared tonight would be the “main event” so to speak for the Houston area. Look for storms to begin to show up around 3 to 4 PM or so in and around Houston. Some of the storms will be heavy with impressive rainfall rates. As we work through the evening, I think the general trend will allow for those storms to slowly lift north and east, while becoming more numerous. For Houston, the hope is that the storms will lift out quickly enough to limit significant problems. We would then see the heaviest rain tonight up into Liberty County or point northeast from there. There is still a good deal of uncertainty regarding tonight’s forecast, so be sure to check back with us later today for an update when we should hopefully know more. It could get a bit rough this evening, but we’re hoping for the best possible outcome right now.
We still see rain becoming more scattered tomorrow and Friday, with a mostly dry weekend expected. Eric has you covered a little later this morning.
: Deepa Singh
