Matt Lanza

The record low watch continues this weekend for Houston. We’ll go into more detail on that below, but what a change the last couple weeks have been. The weather this time of year can get a little chaotic in the temperature department, and we’ll certainly see more of that present itself going forward. Let’s jump in.

Today & Weekend

As of 6:30, the front is just pushing (or about to push) through La Grange, College Station, and Madisonville north and west of Houston.

The front should work from northwest to southeast across the Houston area between about 8 AM and Noon. A brief shower or two is possible, but I wouldn’t really expect it, as it just appears that this front lacks much punch in that department. The best chance for showers will be east of I-45 and closer to Louisiana, where the front can tap into a little more instability and moisture. Temperatures today will stay generally steady in the 60s before finally giving in and dropping into the 50s late.

We might see some lingering clouds or a shower at the coast this evening, but then things should clear out. Behind the front today, it’ll be brisk. Expect north winds of 15-20 mph at times this afternoon and tonight (a bit stronger at the coast). Temps will tumble tonight into the lower 40s on average. It will be warmer at the coast and cooler (30s perhaps) in pockets north and west of Houston.

Saturday will be crisp. Expect highs generally in the lower 60s, but it will be sunny and beautiful with a gradually diminishing wind. Saturday night into Sunday morning is our shot at a record low. Sunday morning’s record low is the last “low hanging fruit” of the year. The current record low of 39° (set in 1910) is the “warmest” record low in Houston until April. Our record lows seem to hit an inflection point right around October 30th and take a step down.

So we’re going to see our first strong autumn/early winter air mass basically right on cue. Expect upper 30s north, low 40s south on Sunday morning. There will be pockets of mid 30s north and west of Houston, and there may even be low 30s for the typical cold spots like Conroe or Huntsville back into the Brazos Valley.

After a cold start, Sunday looks delightful, with sunshine, calmer winds, and temperatures topping off in the upper 60s.

See full post

Good morning. Thanks to Eric for covering me the last few Fridays as I took some time to step away from weather forecasts and explore Utah, which is an absolutely incredible place. And there was snow, for real! Anyway, it’s good to be back in Houston, and it would be better if the Astros were to win tonight. Let’s do some weather, as it is an active, changeable period the next several days.

Today

An area of heavy rainfall formed overnight southeast of Houston dumping nearly 7″ of rain (including 4.5″ in an hour) near Friendswood along Clear Creek.

The heaviest rain has shifted north, but Clear Creek may still rise a bit close to bankfull in spots but not out of banks. Street flooding is likely to continue a bit longer this morning in this area.

So what does the rest of today bring? We’ll probably see continued periods of rain and thunderstorms east of Houston south to near Galveston. Rain will come in spurts, but it could be heavy at times. I think the heaviest will be east of where the serious rain was earlier this morning, and the rain should be intermittent enough in places like Friendswood, Dickinson, and League City to not cause any further serious problems. That said, there may be some pockets of street flooding issues in parts of Chambers or Liberty Counties today, but they’ll probably be isolated.  Elsewhere, keep an umbrella at the ready. Expect isolated to scattered showers and storms in the area, especially through early afternoon.

Temperatures will be held back a bit with clouds, but since we’re starting much warmer than yesterday, we should crack the lower 80s this afternoon (a few places west of the city may do middle 80s). We may see a few showers around this evening or overnight, but far less coverage and intensity than this morning. Most of us will stay dry tonight.

See full post

Quick note: Many of you have reached out to us looking for book recommendations about weather. Well, we listened. Look for a post later this morning that has a handful of recommendations we hope you enjoy.

On to the weather. After some scattered showers and storms on Thursday, things will begin to calm down today, setting up a warm but pleasant weekend. A couple interesting notes about rainfall, courtesy of the NWS Houston office: First, officially, it’s the third wettest year on record (back to 1889) already for Houston. We only need 0.82″ of rain between now and New Year’s Eve to set a new record for wettest year in Houston. On the flip side, if Galveston manages to not receive 0.03″ of rain before tomorrow night, they’ll set a new record for driest September on record (back to 1872). It’s been a weird year.

Weekend

So we’ll keep mentioning a chance of a shower or thunderstorm today, but I think most of us will stay dry. Precipitable water, which is a good measure of how much moisture is available in the atmosphere, will drop off through the day today as we advect in drier air.

In English, that means chances of showers and thunderstorms should diminish today. It will not quite get to zero south of I-10, and I think the majority of us will stay dry. We’ll gradually usher in even drier air tonight, leading to comfortable dewpoints and low humidity on Saturday and completely shutting off rain chances. The weekend should be dry for the entire region.

Though the humidity will lower, the temperatures will stay relatively warm for the turn of the calendar to October, and we should see continued high temperatures in the upper 80s, with morning lows in the slightly more pleasant upper 60s.

See full post