Matt Lanza

Late winter roller coaster ride for Houston

One question I’ve noticed from several folks in recent days has been some variant on “is it safe to tend to the garden yet?”

While we’ll probably avoid any sort of serious cold over the next 7-10 days, the advice I’ve been giving people is to give it at least another week or two. There’s a lot of uncertainty in the weather forecast going into mid and late February, and I’m just not convinced we’re completely out of the woods here in the area. Frosts can cause issues; it doesn’t take 20 degree weather to be problematic. On average, Houston’s last sub-32 degree morning is around February 15th. We’ve done as late as April 10, 1973, and, more recently, as late as March 21, 1996. Yes, it can get cold well into March here. As much as we’d love to say yes, go ahead and get busy, it’s probably prudent to just sit tight a little longer if you can. This winter’s surprised us more than once. We’ll keep you posted.

On to the forecast.

Today through Wednesday

After a mild Sunday, we’ll start the week just a bit cooler behind yesterday’s cold front. Look for upper 50s under clouds or lower 60s with more frequent sunshine today. We’ll have more clouds than sun in general, and a few sprinkles or pockets of drizzle could develop this afternoon, especially south/east of US-59. Onshore flow will continue to ramp up tonight. That should mean more clouds, showers, sprinkles, and also some fog around heading into Tuesday morning.

On Tuesday, we’ll have a warm air mass in place, along with increasing Gulf moisture. This should set the stage for scattered showers and perhaps some thunderstorms across the area. I don’t think everyone will see thunderstorms, but there is a chance for some stronger, hail-producing ones, primarily north of I-10 later Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

Expect temperatures on Tuesday to warm from around 60° in the morning to around 70° later. Tuesday night should see the best chance of storms shift a little further north of our area. A cold front will finally approach the area on Wednesday, cutting northwest to southeast Wednesday morning. We’ll start Wednesday probably in the mid 60s, but by midday or so, temperatures will likely drop back into and through the 50s. Plan to dress for two seasons on Wednesday. With the front, expect another round of showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the morning, and a continued chance of showers or some storms through the afternoon.

Total forecast rainfall over the next couple days shouldn’t be too serious, though a few places will likely see just a little bit more than depicted here. (WPC/Weather Bell)

On average, expect a quarter to half inch of rainfall through Wednesday evening. Some areas may see a little more if showers and storms are persistent. As noted on the map above, some areas south of Houston could even see a bit less.

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Cooler, cloudy, winter-lite type weather today

Today will be one of the Houston days I like to call “Winter-Lite.” It’s definitely chilly by Texas standards, but it’s really not going to be frigid. We’ll have some ups and downs in the days ahead. We’re also watching Texas slip deeper into drought. More on that at the bottom of the post.

Today & Weekend

Our cold front slipped through the area overnight. Rain chances should be minimal to near zero today. Basically, today looks mainly cloudy, breezy, and chilly with temperatures stuck in the lower or middle 50s.

If you have outdoor plans this weekend and can choose Sunday over Saturday, that’s the right play. Tonight will start quiet with just some clouds. The Gulf will see a trough and warm front develop and begin to push back toward us. As it does so, a couple of disturbances several thousand feet up will approach from the west. The combination of these features will likely lead to showers developing overnight.

Unfortunately, I think this means Saturday will be damp. Look for showers, periods of rain, or even a thunderstorm to persist through Saturday morning and into the afternoon. How much rain? I’m thinking around a quarter inch in most spots, maybe a little less south and west or more north and east.

Total rainfall through Saturday evening should be around a quarter inch, with higher amounts possible, mainly east of US-59. (WPC/Weather Bell)

Last weekend sort of snuck up on us, and while model guidance has trended slightly rainier this weekend, I don’t think we’ll see nearly as much rain as we did last Saturday. So we’ll call Saturday a damp one, but not as wet as last weekend.

Temperatures should warm through the 50s during the day, perhaps getting into the 60s by later in the afternoon tomorrow. Look for fog (especially at the coast) on Saturday night into Sunday morning. I’m skeptical of rain chances Sunday. Rather, I suspect we’ll see clouds and/or fog in the morning gradually yield to sunshine, with temperatures warming into the 70s. A weak cold front on Sunday will allow temps to drop back into the 50s heading into Monday morning. More fog is possible at the coast Sunday night.

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Weekend weather and another look back at Hurricane Harvey

A lot of stuff to get to today. We’ll go through the forecast first, and then jump into the National Hurricane Center’s final report on Hurricane Harvey, released yesterday.

Today & Saturday

We’re thinking today will be a rather uneventful weather day. We should see a good deal of cloud cover around, with limited (if any) sunshine. Temperatures are starting the day much warmer (around 50° in most spots, roughly 15° milder than yesterday at this time), and they’ll likely finish warmer than yesterday too. We should manage about mid-60s this afternoon.

In terms of rain, the bulk of today should be dry, but there could be some sprinkles or showers.

Things do change tonight as onshore flow continues, driving in ample moisture. A weak disturbance passes offshore, and this combination will lead to increasing rain chances as the night goes on. The best chance for the most shower activity will be south and east of US-59. The general rule of thumb will be that the closer to the coast you get, the better rain chances will be. Saturday will see shower chances continue in the region, but I think they’ll be highest both in the early morning and later afternoon. And once again, they’ll be highest south and east of Houston. Still, have an umbrella handy Saturday. It will be warm again, with highs near 70 degrees.

Total rainfall tonight and tomorrow will be highest well south and east of Houston. (Weather Bell/WPC)

Generally, we’re only expecting about a half inch or less in and around Houston. Some coastal locations could see upwards of three-quarters of an inch or so of rain. Higher amounts will be possible as you move toward Beaumont-Port Arthur and Lake Charles. Also, watch for some patchy dense fog along the coast (or even in some inland spots) later today through Saturday night.

Sunday into next week

A cold front will pass through the area Saturday night without much punch. You’ll notice it more Sunday with lowering humidity and gradually decreasing clouds. Expect temperatures to top off near 65° or so on Sunday. Sunday night will be chilly, with lows back into the 40s in the area. Monday and Tuesday continue to look splendid, with highs in the low-60s and lows in the 40s. We’ll see a warm up with increasing clouds and minor rain chances after Wednesday.

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Houston emerges from winter’s deep freeze

Today’s the day. Yesterday was more of a false start than anything. We had a modest cloud deck that just setup shop overhead on Thursday, causing temperatures to stay in the 30s all afternoon once more. Today, regardless of clouds, we will finally leave the frigid weather behind this afternoon. But that does come with some rain chances.

Today

It’s starting off cold once again this morning, but not nearly like we’ve seen. Officially, we didn’t get below the mid-30s overnight. And the entire region is pretty uniform this morning, averaging between 35 and 40 degrees as of 6 AM.

A very uniform temperature map in Southeast Texas, with mid-30s to around 40° in most spots. (NOAA/NWS)

Clouds are firmly entrenched over the area, which has helped keep temperatures above freezing just about everywhere. These clouds will continue to hold firm today. Meanwhile, a system off the coast will bring scattered showers to the area through the day. El Campo and Bay City are already seeing some of that this morning. They will spread north as the morning goes on. The odds for rain will diminish as you head north and west of Houston however. So in this scenario, rain is more likely in League City than, say, Hempstead. Included with the rain will be a slight chance for thunderstorms near the coast. Nothing serious, but don’t be shocked if you hear some thunder in Galveston or south toward Matagorda Bay.

Rainfall amounts should average about a quarter of an inch south of I-10 and east of US-59 south of Houston. A few isolated spots could see a half-inch or so. North and west of Houston, most areas will see a tenth of an inch, give or take through Saturday morning. Temperatures today will need some encouragement, but they should top off in the lower or middle 50s by later this afternoon.

Weekend

Saturday should feature mostly cloudy skies with a slight shower chance. Most of us probably stay dry Saturday, but there could be a brief shower at virtually any point during the day anywhere in the region. That chance continues Saturday night and it may increase a bit during the day Sunday. On Sunday night, a cold front will sweep through the region, bringing a short period of showers and a chance of thunderstorms, especially along and north of I-10. Total precipitation this weekend will vary, averaging around a quarter to half-inch of rain in most spots; some could see a bit more, some a bit less.

But break out the shorts, as temperatures will feel downright warm (only being half sarcastic). Look for Saturday morning to start in the low-50s, warming into the upper-60s to around 70° Saturday afternoon, maybe even a bit warmer in spots. Sunday starts in the upper-50s to low-60s and warms into the lower or middle 70s!

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