Matt Lanza

A Dreary, Chilly Tuesday

A cold front has pushed through the region, bringing some showers that look to continue (especially south and east of Houston) for much of today.

TODAY

Rain showers will continue off and on throughout the day, especially as you work south of I-10 and east of I-45. Radar as of 6:15 AM shows heavy showers in Brazoria County (where a Flood Advisory was just issued) and lighter showers extending north and east from there along the coast to Port Arthur.

Radar as of 6:15 AM shows heavier showers south of Houston. (Intellicast)
Radar as of 6:15 AM shows heavier showers south of Houston. (Intellicast)

As the day wears on, these showers will more or less continue in place. Some parts of Brazoria County have seen 1-2″, mainly north and west of Angleton, so some typical nuisance flooding seems possible there as rains continue. It won’t be until tonight that we kick this stuff out of here, as an upper level trough swings through, ending rain from west to east.

Outside of rain, it will be a notably “raw” day today: Temperatures mainly in the low to mid 50s and edging downward into the 40s as the day wears on. Add in the dampness and some 20 mph wind gusts, and you have the recipe for a pretty wintry day by Houston standards.

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The new week starts off nice

First off, a hearty congratulations to Eric for completing the Houston Marathon on Sunday! Great running weather, and the forecast leading into the race was pretty good too.

TODAY

We’ll continue this nice dose of weather for Monday. If you have the holiday off, enjoy it. High temperatures should push 60°, and we’ll see a good bit of sunshine. Pretty awesome for mid-January.

Forecast high temperatures Monday from HRRR model say 60ish will do it, with sunshine. (Weather Bell)
Forecast high temperatures Monday from HRRR model say 60ish will do it, with sunshine. (Weather Bell)

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Dense AM fog, then quick moving showers possible later today

Give yourself a few extra minutes out the door this morning as dense fog is hampering visibility all over the area. A Dense Fog Advisory is posted til 10 AM. Fortunately, we won’t be mired in this weather all weekend.

TODAY/TONIGHT

Once the fog dissipates, we should see some sunshine. But our next weather maker is going to plow through here by mid to late afternoon, allowing for clouds and showers to develop. Similar to Wednesday night/Thursday AM, this disturbance will have some vigor to it, so the possibility of thunderstorms is there. These quick moving systems hitting California and then plowing across Texas can surprise with more thunder or rain than expected sometimes. The difference between today and Wednesday night though will be that the majority of this storm won’t get organized until it’s east of Houston, so the heaviest action with this one will be east of I-45 and perhaps mostly in Louisiana. Still, just be alert for some downpours or thunder any time after 3-4 PM today.

Forecast radar for 6 PM this evening shows most activity east of I-45. Still, be on the look out for some downpours later. (Weather Bell)
Forecast radar for 6 PM this evening shows most activity east of I-45. Still, be on the look out for some downpours later. (Weather Bell)

Things clear out after midnight tonight.

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1:30 PM Update: So far so good, but storms on the way

A Tornado Watch remains posted for Houston and areas north through 4 PM. Thankfully, we’ve only seen one brief tornado warning issued today, just to the north of Navasota. Around Houston, it’s been fine thus far.

The radar shows a broken, but gradually intensifying line of thunderstorms to our west, moving toward the western parts of Harris County as of 1:30 PM. I do think the threat for tornadoes will remain on the low side through mid-afternoon.The best parameters for supercell thunderstorms are shifting to the north and east of Houston now, and while we could conceivably see a storm spin up a brief tornado, the best odds for that are moving into Louisiana.

1:30 PM radar shows a line of thunderstorms organizing west of Houston. It will move through over the next few hours. (NOAA)
1:30 PM radar shows a line of thunderstorms organizing west of Houston. It will move through over the next few hours. (NOAA)

 

That being said, with a developing line of thunderstorms, we could see strong, damaging straight line winds become an issue as it organizes moving through the region. So, remain weather aware with a method to receive weather warnings this afternoon. In addition to the severe weather, heavy rainfall is occurring in these storms. Some areas may see 1-2″ in a short time, so localized street flooding will be possible into this evening.

Temperatures drop 20-25 degrees behind the front. (Weather Underground)
Temperatures drop 20-25 degrees behind the front. Winter is coming. (Weather Underground)

 

Oh, and it will turn sharply colder after the line of storms to our west arrives. Temperatures may drop 25 degrees in an hour as the front arrives this afternoon. It will be in the low to mid 50s just about everywhere by evening.

So in sum: Tornado Watch still posted, but highest threat is shifting away. Strong to severe thunderstorms likely mid to late afternoon with heavy rain and gusty winds. Turning much colder as the front moves through.