Matt Lanza

Eric and I kid with each other often because I personally hate September more than August, whereas most rational people hate August. My reason for hating September is exactly what is happening this year. We got teased with fake fall weather this week, and what’s coming next week looks kind of like “August-lite” type weather. Alas, it won’t be quite as miserable as a typical August, but any dreams of autumn breezes and cooler days are on hold.

Today

Yesterday, we got some showers to drop rain for coastal areas. Parts of Galveston saw just shy of an inch, and rural portions of Brazoria and Matagorda Counties saw 1 to 3 inches. We even saw some rain west of Rosenberg back into Wharton County.

Today’s rain will be more spread out I think. We are initially seeing some scattered showers this morning near Bolivar and along the coast. The focus should remain in those areas for awhile, but inland areas will at least have a shot at showers this afternoon. The guidance for today is that you probably won’t see rain, but if you’re one of the lucky ones that do, it could rain hard for a brief period of time. Highs will be in the 80s or low 90s.

Weekend

Saturday looks a lot like today, with an isolated shower or storm possible almost anywhere, though the focus will be near the coast again and most inland communities will remain rain-free. Sunday should see rain chances dwindle a bit, so even fewer places will see a shower or storm. Both days should be in the low-90s on average. Morning lows will be in the 70s, and winds this weekend should be out of the southeast around 5 to 15 mph, or a bit gusty over the water.

Next week

Second Summer is here. Monday through Wednesday won’t have zero rain chances, but they’ll be low. Look for a lot of sun and a lot of heat. After morning lows in the low-70s, we’re probably looking at successive days in the mid-90s.

Right now, it looks like the ridge over us will peak on Wednesday, but heat will linger into Thursday and Friday also. Record highs next week are generally 96-100 degrees, so we will be flirting on the lower end of that. Don’t look for much relief before next weekend. The earliest we could see our next cold front is probably not until sometime the week of the 26th.

Tropical Storm Fiona

Let’s talk about Fiona. I’ll answer the obvious question right away: Fiona is not expected to make it to Texas or the Gulf at this time. Still, it’s something to at least keep an eye on in case things change.

Fiona has a good bit of thunderstorm activity with it, but one thing is for sure: It’s lopsided, with most storms on the east side and very little on the west side. Thus, Fiona is one disorganized storm.

Fiona is expected to move into the northern half of the Lesser Antilles later today, bringing rain and gusty winds. It will then likely bring rough weather to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later tomorrow into Sunday.

Fiona currently has maximum winds of 50 mph. As it moves into the islands, it is not expected to strengthen a whole lot more. It may gather some steam later this weekend, but that’s a big question mark. The current National Hurricane Center forecast brings it to Hispaniola by Monday.

From Hispaniola, the forecast gets more difficult. A vast majority of models turn Fiona northwest or north at this point, eventually strengthening it enough near the Bahamas to turn it out to sea. However, given land interaction, it’s plausible to think Fiona will struggle a bit in the coming days. Personally, Matt is leaning toward Fiona following the southern fringe of the NHC cone above. This still turns it more northwest near Cuba, but maybe not as soon as we’d like. On the flip side, it’s possible to think there’s enough land interaction to weaken Fiona substantially at some point, perhaps to the point of no return. But never count any system out in September in the southwest Atlantic or Caribbean so we’ll see.

All this is a long way of saying: Fiona will probably turn north or meet its demise before getting to the Gulf, but there’s enough uncertainty regarding the different puzzle pieces to impact this storm that it’s prudent to check back in on Monday and see where we stand. We’ll have more then.

The updated drought monitor report was released yesterday, covering us through this past Tuesday, and it had good news for our area as drought conditions have been significantly ameliorated.

We have gone from 74 percent drought coverage a week ago to 35 percent this week. Most of the area is now drought-free. Of course, it’s not completely gone, and with primarily dry weather expected for another week or more, it stands to reason that we could slip back into a worsening drought situation again this autumn. But for now, we’re doing much, much better. The same is true for much of Texas.

Friday & weekend

The next three days are all going to be variations on the same thing: It will be mainly sunny. You probably will not get rain, but there is at least a slight chance each day that someone will. It will be hot but not extremely so. I do think the next few mornings and evening will be moderately pleasant, much like we’ve seen at times over the last week or so, but the middle of each day should be plenty hot, with highs generally 90 or better away from the coast and mid-90s well inland.

All in all, if you have plans this weekend, you should be in pretty good shape.

Monday through Wednesday

Will it or won’t it? That’s the big question. We have been discussing the chances that a faux fall cold front could push through Sunday night or early next week and provide us with a taste of autumn and somewhat drier air. Models are still roughly 50/50 on whether or not it gets here. This won’t have much moisture or much impact beyond primarily determining whether we see nighttime lows in the 60s over much of the area or continued 70s.

So for now, look for mainly sunshine Monday through Wednesday with a slight chance of a shower or storm. Daytime highs should be in the 90s and nighttime lows generally still in the 70s, but risk for a morning of 60s in there, mainly north of I-10. We will see where we stand on Monday.

Mid to late next week

Whether or not an actual front gets here is somewhat inconsequential to the rest of the forecast next week. Look for sun, clouds, building warm to hot temps again, and more late summer humidity. Rain chances remain on the low-end of the scale for most of the rest of next week.

Tropics

The good news is that the Gulf continues to be free and clear of any tropical activity over the next week or so. Everything is in the Atlantic.

All the systems worth watching in the Atlantic seem likely to stay there for their life cycles, which is surely good news for us. We’re not to the finish line yet, so I’m not quite ready to exhale, but we’re getting closer. For those that follow me on social media, the H-E-B cocoa granola supply remains full. Fingers crossed it stays that way.

Good Sunday morning. About 60 to 70 percent of the area got a good dose of rainfall yesterday. Some places saw nearly 4 inches of rain on Saturday across Harris County.

Back on Friday we mentioned that Sunday’s forecast was a little trickier in that the greater concentration of rain could end up farther south of Houston. Indeed, that’s what will end up happening today. We expect the heaviest rain to be offshore much of today, perhaps building back along the coast some as the day progresses. So, draw a line from Galveston to Angleton to Bay City, and points south of that line have the highest odds of meaningful rain today.

Inland areas won’t be 100 percent dry, but shower coverage may be less than it has been for a few days. Look for highs in the low to mid-80s south and mid to upper-80s north, perhaps near 90 degrees.

Labor Day

A similar pattern is expected for Monday, with the heaviest rain offshore or well south of Houston. Look for a bit more sun, a slight chance of showers, and highs in the mid to upper 80s on average.

The rest of next week looks fairly benign now, with only isolated to scattered rain chances each day.

Tropics

Just a quick update on the tropics today. We have Hurricane Danielle to the north and Tropical Storm Earl to the south in the open Atlantic. Neither are a threat to the Gulf or to land.

An area in the eastern Atlantic has about a 20 percent chance of developing over the next 5 days. That is also not a Gulf concern. We see nothing over the next 7 to 10 days that looks to be of concern for the Gulf. Good news!

Eric should be back posting on Tuesday, unless something changes between now and then. Otherwise, enjoy the rest of the holiday weekend!

Well, here we are. As we’ve been discussing all week, a wet Labor Day Weekend is in the cards for the Houston area, as we continue to chip away at our drought and rainfall deficit all across Texas. Yesterday’s Drought Monitor report had mostly good news for Texas, with the most severe drought coverage losing about half its area, as well as improvements across the state too.

In our area, the only real coverage of extreme drought is west of Katy as of Tuesday, areas that have seen as much as 2 to 3 inches or so of rain since. Next week’s map should be even less ugly, as we expect multiple rounds of showers and storms across much of the southeastern third of Texas over the next few days.

Today

Much like yesterday, we should see some showers and storms pop up across the area during the afternoon, probably along the Highway 59 corridor after lunch and erratically expanding as the day progresses. Some areas will see nothing today, while others could quickly pick up an inch or two of heavy rain and see some ponding or street flooding. Highs will be near 90 degrees. Showers may linger for a couple hours after sunset before fading away.

Saturday and Sunday

With a weak cool front in our area this weekend and available moisture in the atmosphere running about 150 percent of normal, we have a very good recipe for numerous showers and thunderstorms and potentially heavy rainfall. If you have Saturday morning plans, you may be able to escape with minimal disruption, but after 9 or 10 AM, showers should begin to pop up from Houston and points south and east. The earlier you can accomplish things, the better. Storms will become more numerous in coverage on Saturday afternoon.

Stick a pin over downtown Houston. Areas south and east of that pin will likely see the most coverage of rain and storms. Coverage should be pretty healthy north and west of there as well, but it may be more scattered or intermittent.

For Sunday, look for a continuation of things. Showers and storms will blossom as the morning progresses and expand across much of the area. Sunday’s forecast is a bit trickier, however, in that the front may sag a bit farther south than Saturday. This could perhaps focus more of the rain farther south of I-10 and along the coast. We’ll update you this weekend on that.

Any storms this weekend will be capable of producing frequent lightning, brief strong wind gusts, and 2 to 3 inches of rain in an hour or a bit more. This will likely lead to occasional areas of street flooding anywhere in the Houston area or along the coast. For now, no flood watch or SCW flood alert is posted, but we will be monitoring things this weekend to see if that needs to change. Bottom line: Assume that if you’re under torrential rain, it will stay there a bit and could flood the streets for a time.

We are expecting about 1 to 3 inches of rainfall through Monday morning across the area. Important: On average. Some places will almost certainly see less, while others could easily see 4 to 6 inches of rain or even a bit more, depending on exactly how things setup. At this time, we expect those bullseye areas to be relatively small geographically, but we are not sure exactly where those will occur.

Clouds and showers will keep temperatures down this weekend, and at best we will probably see mid-80s for highs and 70s for lows.

Labor Day

If it does not happen on Sunday, the better support for storms should shift south of Houston on Monday, but I still do think we’ll have some rainy periods to contend with even in the city and north. I wouldn’t postpone outdoor plans, however. We’ll keep you posted this weekend. High temperatures should be mid to upper-80s, with lows in the 70s.

Rest of next week

While no days look to be washouts, we will probably deal with daily showers and storms most of the rest of next week. Temperatures should be fairly steady in the upper-80s to low-90s most days, with humid mornings in the 70s.

Tropics

The good news: We have no concerns in the Atlantic for Texas. Tropical Storm Danielle formed yesterday, and it is destined to become a hurricane later today. Naturally, it’s occurring right where we all expe—oh, way up in the far northern Atlantic Ocean. Okay then. None of the other waves being monitored in the Atlantic by the National Hurricane Center are expected to get into the Gulf.

The intrigue: A tropical wave designated as “Invest 93E” in the Pacific off the south coast of Mexico is expected to develop into a tropical storm or hurricane in the coming days. It will curve north and toward Baja, and its leftovers should eventually end up over Mexico and either the desert Southwest or perhaps Texas. Obviously it won’t be a hurricane at that point, but we don’t know exactly how that system will impact our rain chances later next week or weekend, if at all. But options ranging from higher rain chances to very low rain chances, or even some scattered strong thunderstorms are on the table.

We probably won’t get much visibility on this until early next week. We’ll keep you posted.