Matt Lanza

Good morning. Today’s pollen update: Uggghhhh.

Houston is off to one of its warmest starts to a year since records began here back in the late 1800s. In terms of 80 degree days, if you think we’ve had a few more than usual, you’d be correct. We average four of them through March 10th. We’ve already had 17, and today has at least a chance to make it 18, which would be tied for the second most since 1888. 1911 had 22 80 degree days at this point, and 2000 also had 18 of them. Either way, we’re off to the races this year.

We will probably pause things a bit after next week.

We should see one front on Sunday or Monday that knocks us back temporarily, followed up with a second front on Friday or so next week that will have a bit more “oomph” to it, allowing for this cooler weather beyond St. Patrick’s Day. Again, the fast, early start to spring this year doesn’t necessarily mean much of anything heading into April, May, or summer.

Today

The challenge today? Temperatures. With a cool front nudging into the Houston area today, we can expect a bit of a difference from north to south. If you’re driving from Conroe to NASA later today, you may experience a season and a half’s worth of weather.

A passing shower or downpour will be possible this morning, with a mixed but probably dry afternoon; decreasing clouds overall. Temperatures will likely range from near 80 degrees in Houston and south of I-10 to the 70s on the north side of Houston to the 60s or near 70 degrees farther north of Montgomery County and up toward College Station.

Saturday

Let’s call tomorrow a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures back in the low to mid-80s in most of the area with the exception of the very far north and immediate coast. Morning lows should range from the upper-50s well north and west of Greater Houston to the upper 60s at the coast. Outdoor plans look good to go, but watch for some wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph at times.

Sunday

We have seen a couple changes for Sunday’s forecast today. Namely, the timing of the front, which looks about 6 hours or so faster than it did yesterday. That will have an impact on temperatures Sunday, with an earlier front perhaps taking a little of the edge off Sunday’s highs. The early morning will be in the 70s and humid. Depending on the exact timing of the front, we may cool off further after sunrise (which will be an hour later by the way…change those clocks Saturday night!) and then warm into the low-80s. If the front does arrive more slowly, we could do mid or even upper-80s. Either way, the humidity will trend lower and more comfortable through the day. We’ll continue with some gusty winds, but they’ll flip around and be out of the north instead of onshore like Saturday.

It’s always a big weekend at the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, and this weekend you’ve got pretty good weather to go with it. Whether you’re seeing The Chainsmokers, Turnpike Troubadours, or La Fiera De Ojinaga you shouldn’t have too much trouble at all.

Friday evening: Mid-70s walking in, 70 or so walking out. Fair.

Saturday: Low or mid-80s walking in, mid-70s walking out. Breezy and quite humid!

Sunday: Low-80s walking in, mid to upper 60s walking out. Less humid and still a bit breezy.

Early next week

Depending on your perspective, we’ve got some decent weather to start next week. We will manage clouds and sun Monday and hopefully more sun than clouds on Tuesday. Look for highs around 70 and morning lows in the 50s, if not 40s in some spots.

Late next week

The process of a warm up will begin on Wednesday and peak on Thursday. We have a shot at another 80 degree day by then. But then on Friday it appears one of the stronger cold fronts we’ve seen in a few weeks will push through with showers and scattered thunderstorms. That should knock temperatures back into the 60s for highs next weekend, with lows in the 40s. Spring breakers, y’all get a little bit of everything!

Bye La Niña

Yesterday, NOAA officially declared the end of our multi-year La Niña event. As a refresher: La Niña is a periodic cooling of the ocean water in the Equatorial Pacific. When that water turns warmer than usual, we call that El Niño and dress up as the late, great Chris Farley if you’re a student of the 90s. All of this is part of something called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Usually events last a year, maybe two. This La Niña was a triple dipper, lasting for three winters.

That has likely contributed to the long-term drought that’s been battering Texas reservoir levels, groundwater, and agriculture the last couple years. Typically, La Niñas produce drier than normal weather across the Southern Plains.

So what does this change mean for Houston going forward? Nothing yet. This was not unexpected. We’re now in what we call an “ENSO neutral” phase, which is neither La Niña or El Niño. These events are not like a switch that flips and produces instant change. What the change could mean is that we gradually see more rainfall in Texas in the months ahead. Whether that’s in April, June, next fall, who knows? Usually, hurricane seasons are somewhat muted during El Niño summers, as stronger westerly winds increase wind shear in the Caribbean and Atlantic basin. But while El Niño is a possibility a few months down the road, it is not a guarantee. And besides that, not all ENSO events behave similarly. For example, La Niña events usually produce above average rain and snow in the Pacific Northwest and below average rain and snow in California. This year, California is on pace to end up with one of their most exceptional wet seasons in recorded history, and the Pacific Northwest has seen average or below average precipitation. So, while we have a couple theories of what may happen, we will have to watch the evolution of the Pacific waters to get a sense of where we may actually be going in the coming months.

Short on time this morning? No worries. It’s a simple two word forecast the next 3 days: Nice weather.

For those of you that crave details, our analysis, and levity, read on.

Today through Sunday

Well, it certainly has changed a bit since yesterday morning! The map below shows 24 hour temperature changes as of 6:30 this morning, and much of the area is about 20 degrees cooler than Thursday morning.

It’s still breezy outside as well, with 20 mph wind gusts in most places, around 30 mph at the coast, and as high as 40 mph offshore. We will get most of the wind out of the system this morning, and this afternoon looks tranquil and mild with highs in the low-70s.

Both weekend days look great. The edge probably goes to Saturday in terms of comfort. Sunday should see humidity inch up a bit later in the day. We’ll have ample sunshine with lows in the 40s and 50s and highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Big weekend at the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo! We’ve got Bun B’s Southern Takeover tonight, and the weather looks trilling. Temps should be in the upper-60s on the way in and low-60s on the way out. Maybe worth a light jacket for some of you. For Walker Hayes on Saturday, it’s going to be fancy like, with temps in the 70s mostly and perhaps the upper-60s when you’re heading out. Sunday you get the indomitable Zac Brown Band, and you’ll be in the same boat weather-wise with near 80 or so in the afternoon and lower 70s for the evening.

Overall, whatever your plans this weekend, they look great. Unless of course you have pollen allergies, in which case I am sorry. Oak pollen remains through the roof, and there will likely be minimal relief from that for quite some time.

Early next week

As noted above, we do get some humidity back on Sunday. That will transition to a full-fledged face-full of humidity on Monday. Both Monday and Tuesday will feature a mix of clouds and sun with shower chances higher on Monday than Tuesday. We’ll probably top off in the mid-80s, just a touch shy of record highs. Morning lows will be in the 60s to near 70 degrees. Patchy fog is possible, especially at night and in the early morning for coastal areas.

Later next week

Models cannot quite pin down exactly how next week’s front looks. We know a couple things. It’s going to be a strong front in terms of temperatures, ushering in some very chilly air for early March. As Eric noted yesterday, the chances of an actual freeze are quite low at this time, but we’ll continue watching. 40s for lows seem likely at this point by next Friday or Saturday, and 30s are becoming a definite possibility.

Either way, it would appear that the weather is going to change drastically next weekend behind a front that arrives Thursday or Friday. We’ll sort that timing out and get back to you with more on Monday.

Yesterday, Eric touched on the mostly dry forecast for the next week or so. You may be starting to ask yourself if we are heading back into drought. The answer is that we aren’t yet, but a few more weeks like this and we may be starting to discuss it more.

The Houston area right now is fine in terms of official drought. I imagine some farmers are beginning to feel it though across the region. In terms of Texas, about 58 percent of the state is in drought, substantially less than a year ago, so that’s great. But as temperatures begin to heat up and the days get longer, this becomes a little less likely to continue unless we see some meaningful rain. The good news is that parts of North Texas may get a bit of rain, but for the rest of us, it looks less positive. With a mostly dry forecast over the next week and the Climate Prediction Center calling for a dry-ish 8 to 14 day period, expect drought to start entering the vernacular a bit more.

Meanwhile, it hit 83° yesterday, our third consecutive 80 degree day. In February, we’ve done 5 straight days before, in 1986 and 1996. We aren’t expected to hit 80 today, so we will probably end it at three. Just a gentle reminder: These early 80s mean absolutely nothing at all about our later spring or summer. Nothing. So, you may love this or hate this early spring warmth, but it doesn’t mean April or August will go one way or the other.

Today and Saturday

In terms of actual weather, the forecast for today and tomorrow is relatively simple: Clouds, sun, and coastal fog. A passing shower or some light rain, drizzle, or mist is possible as well. We won’t see anything more significant than that.

In terms of temperature and humidity? Yeah, that’s another story. Depending on where you live or where you commute, you may experience both late spring and early spring today. As of 6 AM, the cold front was located basically from Sugar Land through Spring to Lake Livingston.

Why does this matter? From a temperature perspective, yes it’s cooler on the other side of the front, but it’s not exactly “cold.” I would expect mostly 60s to low-70s behind the front, while areas ahead of the front do mid to upper-70s today. More importantly, the humidity is sharply lower behind the front. Literally, right now it’s very, very humid at Bush Airport, yet just a little humid in Spring and bordering on comfortable in Conroe. So with this front literally parked over the metro area today, exactly where it’s parked will make the difference between a very warm and humid February day or a mild but somewhat comfortable one. It just so happens that millions of people live around that boundary, so your mileage is going to vary a lot today.

It’s unlikely that this front would get too far south and east today, so most areas south and east of Houston should stay warm and humid with areas of fog or low clouds.

This story continues Saturday. The front is going to move back to the north and west, but exactly how fast and from exactly what start point in the Houston metro area is difficult to say. In general, look for more warm and humid weather to gradually work north and west tomorrow, while coastal areas remain stuck in low clouds and fog. We’ll call it mid-70s for most, but a few places south and east could test 80°, while some places north and west may stay in the 60s to low-70s.

Sunday

By Sunday, the front should finally be making steady progress north. Weather-wise, it will be more of the same: Clouds, sun, and coastal fog. But! Winds on Sunday look a little stronger than Friday or Saturday, so I would hope that we could see the fog get lifted a bit on the coast. Look for a south wind of 10 to 15 mph, or a bit stronger at times over the water. Overall, Sunday should be a mostly cloudy, breezy, and warm day with 80s possible in many spots again.

Monday

Our next real definitive cold front is still scheduled for Monday. There could be an overnight or early morning burst of 20 to 30 mph south winds near the coast ahead of the front Monday, but things will calm down in the morning rather quickly. The front should clear the region by mid-morning Monday with only a handful of showers as it moves through. The rest of the day will actually look gorgeous. Expect sunshine, much lower humidity, and highs in the 70s.

Tuesday & Wednesday

We get our usual bout of cool weather behind the front on Tuesday morning, with lows mostly in the 50s.

A few 40s may be possible in outlying areas. Tuesday itself looks great with sunshine and highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees. Low, comfortable humidity will continue — a great opening night for the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo!

Onshore return flow means the humidity comes roaring back on Wednesday. Expect more clouds as well. We’ll test the 80s, and it will feel much less comfortable.

Later next week

Our next front is penciled in for Friday morning. This one should bring some rain and wind (especially offshore) with it, but whether it’s noteworthy or just something you’ll notice remains to be seen. We’ll watch it through the weekend. I’d expect Thursday to be cloudy, warm, and breezy. Friday should be changeable with a chance of early AM storms and gusty winds followed by clearing, much cooler, and drier weather. If all goes well, next weekend will be an absolute winner. Fingers crossed.

Pollen

It’s that time of year, allergy sufferers. This weather is not helping. But the trees are producing heavy pollen this week, and it will only get worse before it gets better. We’re not even close to peak yet, so start prepping now. You can track pollen levels during weekdays via the City of Houston.

Yesterday was a chilly, breezy day, and we will probably have some more of that today before our weather changes pretty drastically. This will be our last real shot of winter-type weather for some time, as we see at least a temporary shift into spring next week.

Today

Sunshine should dominate today, with at least a few high clouds floating by through the day. Otherwise, look for a continued 10 to 15 mph breeze with gusts to 25 or 30 at times. Winds over the water will be slightly stronger. After a chilly start this morning, look for us to recover into the low-50s this afternoon.

Weekend

Both weekend days look fine, with a chilly Saturday transitioning to a much milder Sunday. For tomorrow, we will have more sun and high clouds but noticeably less wind than yesterday or today. It will be quite a chilly start to the day, but we’ll gradually creep into the mid-50s or so during the afternoon.

Sunday looks milder with morning lows about 5 to 10 degrees warmer (mostly 40s), and a surge of onshore flow leading to highs near 70 or better. Expect continued sun mixed with occasional high clouds.

Monday and Tuesday

We will really notice the return of humidity on these days as dewpoints shoot up into the 60s on steady onshore winds. High temperatures? Warm. Look for 80 or better both days, with morning lows in the 60s.

The weather should remain at least partly sunny on both days. There could be a stray shower or some fog on the coast, but winds of 10 to 15 mph or so will help keep the fog from sticking too long I think.

Wednesday through Friday

The forecast remains rather elusive for the back half of next week. The primary problem is that a cold front is likely to stall out and/or dissipate near Houston. If that gets to the coast, we’ll turn notably cooler for a day or so. If that fails to get into the metro area, we’ll continue to see 60s for lows and 70s or 80s for highs. The European model has it slam on the brakes just before getting to Houston’s northwest suburbs. The GFS model pushes it 50 to 100 miles offshore. That’s a *big* difference in potential outcomes.

That also will impact the weather we see, with a cooler outcome leading to clouds and shower chances but a warmer outcome likely leading to AM fog and PM sun, with limited rain chances. Take your pick. Right now, I believe the smart money is on a warmer outcome, but we’ll have to wait and see on that.

As Eric noted yesterday, the remainder of February will probably finish on a mild note. It will probably also finish somewhat drier than normal. We’re still in a La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean, so this shouldn’t come as a huge shock, as that is typical for our late winter and spring weather. For those tracking such things, it would seem that the end is near for La Niña by this summer. While what it means for Houston is very much TBD, in general, that might promote better rain chances this summer, with hopefully fewer hurricanes to watch than is typical. We shall see!