Matt Lanza

Eric has been keeping you apprised on local impacts due to the upcoming cold snap and winter storm, which at this time appear to be relatively minor. We often get asked about weather across other portions of Texas, as people plan travel or have friends and relatives elsewhere. In this post, we’ll talk a bit more about what is expected weather-wise across the Lone Star State from this significant winter storm. It’s important to again underscore that this is not a February 2021 repeat, even elsewhere in Texas. All events have unique impacts. It’s not a reason to take events like this lightly, as this one will cause some significant problems I am sure, particularly related to travel. But it’s important for us to provide some context for you, and that context is that this is a not a February 2021-type event virtually anywhere in Texas.

North Texas & DFW Metro

This winter storm will produce multiple hazards across Texas, and each area will have its own problems. In the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, the concern is very much ice over anything else. Conditions will deteriorate later tomorrow afternoon and evening from northwest to southeast across the area, with rain transitioning to freezing rain (ice) and eventually sleet or snow. It may be a bit of a wild night Wednesday into Thursday morning with different areas seeing switches from ice to sleet to snow and back, eventually trending to all snow and sleet before ending on Thursday morning or afternoon.

When all is said and done, most of the DFW area should see a tenth of an inch or two of ice, enough to cause significant travel problems and potentially some localized power outages or downed tree branches. North and east of Dallas is the highest concern. Modeling has been pretty consistent in pegging that area for higher ice accumulation (a quarter-inch or more), and that could lead to more significant travel problems and power outages. Travel to North Texas is not advised Wednesday night, Thursday, and potentially Friday, when things can hopefully begin to thaw out.

Less ice is expected east and southeast of Dallas, but there could also be some travel issues in far northern parts of the Piney Woods, particularly around Tyler and Longview. Patchy light ice is possible farther south toward Palestine, Nacogdoches, and Lufkin. Southeastern Oklahoma and portions of Arkansas will likely be hardest hit in terms of ice.

Snow and sleet are a little less of a concern than ice in Dallas, but it could still be significant, with perhaps 1 to 3 inches of accumulation on top of any ice, especially as you head out west of Fort Worth toward Weatherford and Mineral Wells. But the combination of everything will likely make for very, very difficult travel in North Texas late this week.

Overnight lows heading into Friday morning should bottom out in the teens in Dallas, the coldest night of this event (compared to -2 in February 2021).

Single digits are possible well west of the Metroplex, heading toward Abilene or Wichita Falls, areas that will likely see less ice and about 2 to 3 inches of snow, which allows for more effective radiational cooling at night.

West Texas (El Paso, Midland, Lubbock, Amarillo)

For West Texas, the story will likely be snow and cold, with a little ice in spots as well. Snow will develop in the Panhandle late tonight, while a mix of precipitation should develop in the Permian Basin on Wednesday morning. The transition from a mix to all snow should gradually drop south and east tomorrow night, reaching I-10 west of Hill Country around midnight before snow gradually winds down. Blizzard conditions are possible in some of the mountains in far West Texas, so a hike in Guadalupe Mountains National Park would be ill-advised.

When all is said and done, most southern areas will see a modest 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts in the mountains but plenty of blowing snow as well. Additionally, up to a tenth of an inch of ice will be possible in some spots.

In the Panhandle, generally 1 to 3 inches and blowing snow is expected, with a few higher amounts, especially north of Amarillo. You can see some discontinuities in the map below, which are related to the general uncertainty that’s always present in Southern Plains winter storms. Each National Weather Service office relies on their experience and model trends to produce these forecasts, so there are bound to be some differences from place to place. I show these to give you a general idea of expectations and some granularity.

Temperatures will be quite cold in West Texas, with lows in the single digits to below zero expected on Friday morning in the Panhandle and single digits to teens in southwest Texas.

In some cases, while these temperatures are quite cold, they will fall 10 degrees or more short of last February’s coldest readings. Again, while this is a big storm, it’s not historic in the way last February was.

Central Texas (Austin, San Antonio, Waco)

As is often the case, the farther south and east you go, the harder the forecast gets in Texas winter storms. Central Texas is no exception this time around, with models painting a challenging forecast, particularly over Waco and Austin. A mix of rain, ice, and possibly sleet will arrive late Wednesday night and Thursday, slowly transitioning over to sleet or mixed sleet and snow late Thursday. While the duration of precipitation should be relatively brief here compared to other parts of Texas, there is still some chance that ice overperforms some, particularly from Austin through Waco.

In general, most of Hill Country and the I-35 corridor north of New Braunfels should see 0.05 to 0.10 inches of ice, enough to create some hazardous travel on Thursday into at least Friday morning. It’s not out of the question that a few isolated spots, particularly north of Killeen through Waco could see upwards of two-tenths of an inch of ice, which would cause more substantial issues. Whatever happens, ice is expected to be an issue north of San Antonio on Thursday and travel is not advised Thursday into at least Friday morning.

Morning lows on Friday will be quite chilly.

Expect lows to again come up well short of February 2021’s levels in Central Texas, with San Antonio, Austin, and Waco all within a few degrees of 20 on Friday morning.

South Texas

No serious winter impacts outside of cold and wind are expected in South Texas, thankfully. However, Friday morning will certainly be cold in the Valley and toward Victoria and Corpus Christi.

At this time, icing is not expected south and east of San Antonio, but a few reports of light icing or sleet can’t be entirely ruled out, especially in the Victoria Crossroads.

Eric will have the latest on our Houston area expectations in the morning!

So, if you were looking for a nice weekend, you will get your wish. The weather this weekend looks great: Sunshine, comfortable afternoons, and not too much wind. We will enter a more active weather pattern next week with a number of things to talk about, none super serious but a few you will want to be mindful of moving ahead.

Today

We have a weak cold front sneaking through this morning, which has led to some showers, primarily south of Houston, toward Wharton and Matagorda Counties. So you may get some showers down there. The rest of us will see clouds slowly clear out this morning, leading to a sunny afternoon. It will feel a little cooler today with generally mid-50s and a breeze.

Saturday & Sunday

As noted above, both days look great with sunshine and just a few clouds. We’ll warm from the 30s to around 60 degrees on Saturday, and then we’ll go from 40 or so into the mid-60s on Sunday. Just splendid.

Monday

The first hurdle for next week comes on Monday. Modeling has been in pretty good agreement on a rather vigorous little disturbance swinging through the region with a period of rain for a good chunk of the area beginning in the mid to late morning and ending sometime Monday evening. I will definitely mention the chance of thunderstorms here as well. At this point, widespread severe weather isn’t expected with this disturbance, but I think we should watch Monday for at least the chance of a few stronger storms especially south of Houston. We’ll update you Monday morning with the latest.

On average, I’d expect an inch or so on Monday, particularly from I-10 southward. There will likely be areas of higher amounts up to 3 inches or so, again especially to the south of Houston. Areas north of Houston may see a bit less, depending on the exact track this disturbance takes.

Outside of Monday’s rain, it will be a touch milder with morning lows around 50 or in the 50s and daytime highs in the 60s.

Tuesday & Wednesday

Behind Monday’s storm, we should calm down on Tuesday and most of Wednesday. Look for clouds, some sun, and perhaps a shower chance. We have a shot at 70 degrees on both days, and depending on the exact timing of the next front, it could push well into the 70s on Wednesday. Morning lows will generally be in the 50s. As warm, humid air starts to return, expect the Gulf fog machine to try and turn back on for the first time in awhile, so we could have some gloomy mornings with low visibility.

Late next week

Our next front is timed out to late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Expect showers and thunderstorms as this pushes through, with another widespread rainfall possible. As Eric has noted, the air behind this front is going to pack a little punch. Expect windy and colder conditions Thursday and a decent chance at a freeze on both Friday and Saturday morning and possibly Sunday morning as well. It’s a little too early to get too specific, but at the very least, I think we should be expecting a freeze similar to what we’ve already seen this winter, with risk for temps a couple degrees colder than that.

If you look at the various ensemble model guidance, there is a range of morning lows from the low-20s to mid-30s next weekend, meaning there’s still a lot of uncertainty here on specifics. But I think it’s safe to plan on mid to upper-20s for a few mornings for now, and we’ll adjust up or down next week as needed. The good news is that daytime highs look to be generally in the 40s, if not low-50s, so we will warm well above freezing each day. We will keep you posted on this, but just to be clear, while cold, this doesn’t appear to be a repeat of last February.

Good morning, and it is indeed a chilly one across the area. Temperatures this morning are mostly in the 30s and the precipitation is moving offshore. Any risk of icing has now passed for the majority of the area, and per drivetexas.org the only icy patches being reported right now are along 290 between Hockley and Waller. We can now settle in for a chilly start to the weekend, though a calm one at least.

Today

Some lingering rain or sleet may occur in the Matagorda Bay region until a little after sunrise, but everyone else should just be waking up to clouds.

Those clouds will clear from northwest to southeast this morning and afternoon. I’d venture to say at least 90 percent of the area will see sunshine before the day is up, with the exceptions maybe being along the immediate Gulf coast. Despite developing sunshine, most places probably won’t get out of the 40s today. Coupled with a light to moderate breeze, it will feel chilly.

Weekend

Tonight will be the coldest night of this cold snap. Skies should be clear and winds light, or what meteorologists refer to as “ideal radiational cooling.” It means temperatures will fall steadily after sunset, and we should bottom out in the 20s and low-30s across the region tonight.

Look for a low right around freezing inside the Beltway, 29-31° outside of there to Grand Parkway, and generally upper 20s beyond that. As always, slightly higher or slightly lower temperatures are possible based on your location, but it should not get any worse than that. It’s probably a good idea to protect any sensitive plants, particularly outside the Beltway, but we don’t expect any serious problems. If you’re looking for a benchmark, this freeze looks similar in a lot of ways to the ones we had earlier this month, just after New Years. Another freeze will be possible Sunday morning, but it would be most likely north and east of Houston and a degree or so warmer than tomorrow’s.

The rest of the weekend looks splendid, with plenty of sunshine Saturday and some high clouds on Sunday. Expect highs in the lower half of the 50s Saturday and upper-50s on Sunday.

Monday

A quick moving, vigorous disturbance is going to pass by the region Monday afternoon and evening. Expect clouds to increase Sunday night into Monday morning. Rain will begin to develop and spread from southwest to northeast across the region later Monday morning into the afternoon. The heaviest rain looks to be around mid to late afternoon, and then it will taper off Monday evening. At this point, it looks like a good old fashioned soaking rain, something most of the area needs right now. There is some chance we’ll get some thunderstorms embedded within the rain as well, and some stronger storms can’t yet be entirely ruled out. But that is not the expectation right now. Check back with us Monday morning for the latest.

We should be able to muster a solid half-inch to inch of rain across most of the area, as long as the current forecast holds. The highest totals should be south and east of the city. Monday will warm from the 40s into the mid-50s.

Rest of next week

Look for a warm day with sunshine on Tuesday, as highs should get back into the 60s. A cold front should uneventfully pass through the region Tuesday night, yielding some more 30s for lows by Thursday morning and highs in the 50s Wednesday and Thursday. A freeze is not expected outside of perhaps typical colder spots like Conroe, Huntsville, Cleveland, or west of Katy. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny. A general warming trend will likely begin after that cold front, which could return us to more frequent above normal temperatures again by early February. Stay tuned!

We’ll be in for a weekend of change, and it will be obvious when it hits, as winds should be pretty gusty behind tomorrow’s cold front. That said, this will be pretty typical for a Houston winter weekend, and much of the forecast ahead will resemble a fairly typical winter here. For those of you running the Houston Marathon (or the half or 5k) this weekend, first off, good luck! Secondly, the winds on Sunday, while not as bad as tomorrow afternoon, will certainly come with some bite. With a 15 to 20 mph northwest wind and temperatures in the 30s on Sunday morning, it will feel like it’s in the 20s to start the race.

Thankfully, as temperatures warm up through the morning, the wind should slowly back down. By 10 AM, winds will be back down around 15 mph with temperatures in the 40s, making it feel more like the mid to upper-30s. It should be mainly sunny for the race, so at least you’ll have that.

Today

Before we get to Sunday, we have to get through today and tomorrow. Look for a warm one with sunshine for Friday and highs in the low, maybe mid-70s. There is some patchy fog along the coastal plain this morning, mainly south of Houston, so if your travels take you down 288 into Brazoria County or toward Matagorda County, just be aware of that through about 9 or 10 AM.

Saturday

Tomorrow’s cold front should pass through the region in the early morning hours, probably around or just before sunrise. Look for a sharp wind shift with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph and some higher gusts.

This shouldn’t be widespread power outage stuff, but you might see a few reports of brief outages due to wind. Winds will be gustier along the coast, so Galveston and communities along Galveston Bay could see gusts of 40 mph or so.

Along with the winds will come falling temperatures. Saturday’s high will be achieved around daybreak, with temperatures falling through the 50s and into the 40s on Saturday morning. We’ll level off some for afternoon and maybe even warm back up a tick or two.

This front will come with limited ability to produce storms, so look for perhaps a broken area of showers in the early morning, mainly south and east of Houston. Most areas are unlikely to see measurable rainfall.

Sunday

As noted at the top, it will be cold on Sunday morning with 30s in most spots. A light freeze is a good bet outside the metro area, but the wind will actually help prevent that from being too widespread. Places like Conroe or Navasota or Cleveland or Brookshire could still see lows get close to freezing for a couple hours. Everyone else should see mid to upper-30s with that breeze. The day should be nicer with highs into the 50s and ample sunshine.

Early next week

Look for quiet weather on Monday and Tuesday. Most places will be back in the 30s on Monday morning, but a freeze is unlikely in most spots. With sunshine, we’ll warm into the 60s for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. Onshore flow resumes on Tuesday, allowing us to slowly warm, so expect lows in the 40s in the morning, warming into the 70s in the afternoon. Our next front is penciled in for Wednesday.

Late next week

Look for a fairly unsettled weather pattern to take hold for Thursday and Friday, which could lead to some rain across the area, perhaps focused mainly on the southern half of the region. Temperatures will likely stay cool behind Wednesday’s front, with perhaps a reinforcing front next weekend to usher in some even colder air by Sunday or Monday. Again, there is no realistic sign of any kind of massive cold outbreak or deep freeze (the pattern setting up over North America next week favors the strongest cold relative to normal to aim at places like Buffalo, Chicago, and Minneapolis right now, not the Plains/Texas). But it will likely be chilly regardless, and there will probably be more than one opportunity for a night of below freezing temperatures in Houston.

Speaking of Buffalo, if you’ll be watching the Bills/Pats game this weekend, it’s going to be a brutal one in Orchard Park. Saturday evening’s kickoff temperature should be about 5 degrees, give or take.

More for you Monday!