Matt Lanza

Autumn. August. Both are basically the same, right? We hit 98 degrees officially in Houston yesterday, our hottest late September day since 2005. We have a shot at meeting or exceeding that level again today and maybe again on Monday before we can hopefully be done with this level of ridiculous heat.

Meanwhile, Invest 98L became Tropical Depression 9 in the Caribbean overnight. It should not impact Texas, but it will likely be an issue for Florida or the eastern Gulf. More on that below.

Today

More of the same. Highs likely just shy of 100 with sunshine. Watch for poor air quality (high ozone), in addition to high levels of <ah choo!> ragweed.

Weekend

Temperatures may crawl back a couple degrees this weekend, but that’s because humidity levels may increase just a bit. All else equal, it will continue to feel more like summer than fall: Mid-90s by day, mid-70s by night. A shower can’t be entirely ruled out, especially Sunday, but you’d be lucky if you saw one.

Monday

This may be the trickiest day of the forecast. We are expecting a cold front to descend on southeast Texas on Monday. Air masses tend to be at their hottest immediately before a front passes through. In addition, this front will come with little moisture and minimal rain chances. With humidity likely falling through the day on Monday, we will have a much easier time heating up, assuming sunshine. I would not be shocked to see some places blow past 98 or 99 degrees Monday afternoon.

Current forecast highs are hot, but I think there’s some chance we end up beating some of these numbers.

Tuesday & beyond

The rest of next week looks nice by September standards in Houston. We should see low humidity, allowing nighttime lows to drop into the mid or lower 60s away from the Gulf and bays. Inland locations even have a shot at 50s!

Daytimes will remain fairly hot, but not nearly to the levels we’ve seen lately and with much more tolerable humidity. In other words, the shade and a breeze should offer to provide sweet relief from heat. Look for upper-80s to 90 or so each day. Rain chances seem close to zero all of next week.

Tropics

So now we’ll discuss the tropics. Again, we do not expect that Tropical Depression 9 will impact Houston or Texas at all. So what will it do?

This morning, TD9 is located just off the coast of Venezuela. It finally pushed away from land and more out into the water yesterday, which has allowed it to organize.

Granted, it doesn’t look great on the satellite image above. There is still a lot of wind shear in the wake of Hurricane Fiona, which is impacting TD9’s growth. It will initially be slow. As TD9 works west, it should emerge from that shear into a more stable environment, and that’s when we may see it intensify more rapidly.

TD9 is expected to work just north of west over the next couple days, but it will eventually likely feel the impacts of our cold front and resultant trough over the Eastern U.S. by early next week. This will allow the storm to turn northwest and eventually north and probably northeast as well in time. Thus, the track forecast for Nine shows it threatening Florida in time.

Given the geography of Florida and the Caribbean and the turn expected from TD9, there are many, many questions on intensity and impacts. If the turn happens earlier than forecast, that could lead to more land interaction with Jamaica and Cuba’s eastern mountains, which could keep the system a bit disheveled and also allow it to track east of Florida. If the turn is slower, this could give TD9 more time over the Caribbean rocket fuel (mostly normal for this time of year), allow it to strengthen more, and produce less hostile land interaction. Thus it would be a bigger threat to the Florida Peninsula. If the turn is much slower than forecast, then odds increase for the Panhandle or Mississippi/Alabama coasts. All options are reasonable right now, but consensus favors something near the current NHC track.

Given the general interest in this system, as well as the potential impacts to the planned Artemis I launch in Florida next week, Eric and I will keep you updated on this storm through the weekend.

One last note. We’re obviously watching TD9 closely, but Fiona is still out there, and it is about to absolutely hammer Atlantic Canada. Much of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland are under hurricane warnings. Tropical storm conditions are even expected as far north as Labrador. This will likely be a generational storm for Nova Scotia. This area often experiences large storms, but this will be at another level and perhaps worse than Juan in 2003.

Thoughts with our Canadian friends through a pretty trying event.

Eric and I kid with each other often because I personally hate September more than August, whereas most rational people hate August. My reason for hating September is exactly what is happening this year. We got teased with fake fall weather this week, and what’s coming next week looks kind of like “August-lite” type weather. Alas, it won’t be quite as miserable as a typical August, but any dreams of autumn breezes and cooler days are on hold.

Today

Yesterday, we got some showers to drop rain for coastal areas. Parts of Galveston saw just shy of an inch, and rural portions of Brazoria and Matagorda Counties saw 1 to 3 inches. We even saw some rain west of Rosenberg back into Wharton County.

Today’s rain will be more spread out I think. We are initially seeing some scattered showers this morning near Bolivar and along the coast. The focus should remain in those areas for awhile, but inland areas will at least have a shot at showers this afternoon. The guidance for today is that you probably won’t see rain, but if you’re one of the lucky ones that do, it could rain hard for a brief period of time. Highs will be in the 80s or low 90s.

Weekend

Saturday looks a lot like today, with an isolated shower or storm possible almost anywhere, though the focus will be near the coast again and most inland communities will remain rain-free. Sunday should see rain chances dwindle a bit, so even fewer places will see a shower or storm. Both days should be in the low-90s on average. Morning lows will be in the 70s, and winds this weekend should be out of the southeast around 5 to 15 mph, or a bit gusty over the water.

Next week

Second Summer is here. Monday through Wednesday won’t have zero rain chances, but they’ll be low. Look for a lot of sun and a lot of heat. After morning lows in the low-70s, we’re probably looking at successive days in the mid-90s.

Right now, it looks like the ridge over us will peak on Wednesday, but heat will linger into Thursday and Friday also. Record highs next week are generally 96-100 degrees, so we will be flirting on the lower end of that. Don’t look for much relief before next weekend. The earliest we could see our next cold front is probably not until sometime the week of the 26th.

Tropical Storm Fiona

Let’s talk about Fiona. I’ll answer the obvious question right away: Fiona is not expected to make it to Texas or the Gulf at this time. Still, it’s something to at least keep an eye on in case things change.

Fiona has a good bit of thunderstorm activity with it, but one thing is for sure: It’s lopsided, with most storms on the east side and very little on the west side. Thus, Fiona is one disorganized storm.

Fiona is expected to move into the northern half of the Lesser Antilles later today, bringing rain and gusty winds. It will then likely bring rough weather to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later tomorrow into Sunday.

Fiona currently has maximum winds of 50 mph. As it moves into the islands, it is not expected to strengthen a whole lot more. It may gather some steam later this weekend, but that’s a big question mark. The current National Hurricane Center forecast brings it to Hispaniola by Monday.

From Hispaniola, the forecast gets more difficult. A vast majority of models turn Fiona northwest or north at this point, eventually strengthening it enough near the Bahamas to turn it out to sea. However, given land interaction, it’s plausible to think Fiona will struggle a bit in the coming days. Personally, Matt is leaning toward Fiona following the southern fringe of the NHC cone above. This still turns it more northwest near Cuba, but maybe not as soon as we’d like. On the flip side, it’s possible to think there’s enough land interaction to weaken Fiona substantially at some point, perhaps to the point of no return. But never count any system out in September in the southwest Atlantic or Caribbean so we’ll see.

All this is a long way of saying: Fiona will probably turn north or meet its demise before getting to the Gulf, but there’s enough uncertainty regarding the different puzzle pieces to impact this storm that it’s prudent to check back in on Monday and see where we stand. We’ll have more then.

The updated drought monitor report was released yesterday, covering us through this past Tuesday, and it had good news for our area as drought conditions have been significantly ameliorated.

We have gone from 74 percent drought coverage a week ago to 35 percent this week. Most of the area is now drought-free. Of course, it’s not completely gone, and with primarily dry weather expected for another week or more, it stands to reason that we could slip back into a worsening drought situation again this autumn. But for now, we’re doing much, much better. The same is true for much of Texas.

Friday & weekend

The next three days are all going to be variations on the same thing: It will be mainly sunny. You probably will not get rain, but there is at least a slight chance each day that someone will. It will be hot but not extremely so. I do think the next few mornings and evening will be moderately pleasant, much like we’ve seen at times over the last week or so, but the middle of each day should be plenty hot, with highs generally 90 or better away from the coast and mid-90s well inland.

All in all, if you have plans this weekend, you should be in pretty good shape.

Monday through Wednesday

Will it or won’t it? That’s the big question. We have been discussing the chances that a faux fall cold front could push through Sunday night or early next week and provide us with a taste of autumn and somewhat drier air. Models are still roughly 50/50 on whether or not it gets here. This won’t have much moisture or much impact beyond primarily determining whether we see nighttime lows in the 60s over much of the area or continued 70s.

So for now, look for mainly sunshine Monday through Wednesday with a slight chance of a shower or storm. Daytime highs should be in the 90s and nighttime lows generally still in the 70s, but risk for a morning of 60s in there, mainly north of I-10. We will see where we stand on Monday.

Mid to late next week

Whether or not an actual front gets here is somewhat inconsequential to the rest of the forecast next week. Look for sun, clouds, building warm to hot temps again, and more late summer humidity. Rain chances remain on the low-end of the scale for most of the rest of next week.

Tropics

The good news is that the Gulf continues to be free and clear of any tropical activity over the next week or so. Everything is in the Atlantic.

All the systems worth watching in the Atlantic seem likely to stay there for their life cycles, which is surely good news for us. We’re not to the finish line yet, so I’m not quite ready to exhale, but we’re getting closer. For those that follow me on social media, the H-E-B cocoa granola supply remains full. Fingers crossed it stays that way.

Good Sunday morning. About 60 to 70 percent of the area got a good dose of rainfall yesterday. Some places saw nearly 4 inches of rain on Saturday across Harris County.

Back on Friday we mentioned that Sunday’s forecast was a little trickier in that the greater concentration of rain could end up farther south of Houston. Indeed, that’s what will end up happening today. We expect the heaviest rain to be offshore much of today, perhaps building back along the coast some as the day progresses. So, draw a line from Galveston to Angleton to Bay City, and points south of that line have the highest odds of meaningful rain today.

Inland areas won’t be 100 percent dry, but shower coverage may be less than it has been for a few days. Look for highs in the low to mid-80s south and mid to upper-80s north, perhaps near 90 degrees.

Labor Day

A similar pattern is expected for Monday, with the heaviest rain offshore or well south of Houston. Look for a bit more sun, a slight chance of showers, and highs in the mid to upper 80s on average.

The rest of next week looks fairly benign now, with only isolated to scattered rain chances each day.

Tropics

Just a quick update on the tropics today. We have Hurricane Danielle to the north and Tropical Storm Earl to the south in the open Atlantic. Neither are a threat to the Gulf or to land.

An area in the eastern Atlantic has about a 20 percent chance of developing over the next 5 days. That is also not a Gulf concern. We see nothing over the next 7 to 10 days that looks to be of concern for the Gulf. Good news!

Eric should be back posting on Tuesday, unless something changes between now and then. Otherwise, enjoy the rest of the holiday weekend!