Matt Lanza

Welcome to our first edition of Eye on the Tropics for the 2022 hurricane season. Each Tuesday, Eric or myself will get you caught up on the big picture in the Atlantic basin. From now into August, it gives us a space to expand on some tropical thoughts a bit more expansively than we can in our morning posts. Usually by mid-August there’s enough happening each day to include in our regular emails. Until that time, though, we’ll cover the bases on Tuesday.

Tropical outlook in a sentence

We have a fairly active Atlantic basin, especially for late June, and although no storm is expected to be significant we have something to watch close to home with Invest 95L in the Gulf of Mexico.

2022 to date

Through this morning, we have had one named storm this season. We were up to the “D” storm by this point in the season in both 2021 and 2020. Good omen? Perhaps, but this is really just normal for June. It’s typically not that active of a month. We normally see storm two in mid-July. So instead of being a month or more ahead of schedule this year, we’re only about two or three weeks fast. Progress!

Gulf system (Invest 95L)

Eric had a very thorough and fine write-up on this system and how much rain it could bring to Texas this morning. I won’t reinvent the wheel here, and I encourage you to read his post for the latest.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 2

Elsewhere, we have nothing to worry about in the tropics, but things are active. A common question we get this time of year involves people planning trips to various tropical paradises. They want to know if they have to worry about “that thing out there.” That’s why we’re here!

Potential Tropical Cyclone Number Two is located just east of Trinidad and Tobago. That’s a mouthful, but in simple language: It’s a system that meets tropical storm criteria (winds of 39 mph or higher) near land, but lacks a defined center just yet. It’s moving steadily westward, potentially on a collision course with <checks notes> Venezuela. Not a lot of history of storms in June and July this far south. In fact, if PTC 2 can develop into an actual tropical storm, it would be one of the farthest south this early on record.

The good news is that track forecast confidence is very high with this storm now. We have very little serious deviation between models or ensemble members, which gives us good support for a predictable outcome. In this case, it involves PTC 2 hauling due west, with maybe just a slight northward component. But ultimately, it’s likely on a collision course with Nicaragua or perhaps Honduras. As confident as we are on track, the opposite is true about intensity. Given its historically hostile location (the eastern Caribbean), the time of year, its proximity to land, and the fact that it’s moving around 20 mph or faster, there are a lot of extraneous factors that could impact the storm’s intensity negatively. Yes, this has a chance to become a hurricane as it approaches Central America, but it probably has equal chances of not being one too.

If your travels take you to the islands or Mexico, you probably have no issues to worry about. Elsewhere in Central America, it’s worth continuing to watch. The good news is that this thing is moving fast enough that it will probably emerge into the Pacific Ocean fairly quickly. So hopefully that leads to minimal flooding issues in Central America.

To note: The next name on the list after Alex is Bonnie. So if PTC 2 can develop, it will get that name. Sadly, the “C” storm is not Clyde, it’s Colin.

Other Atlantic items

The National Hurricane Center is offering 20 percent odds that another tropical wave can develop in the Atlantic over the next 2 to 5 days.

At this point, model support is pretty mediocre on this one, unlike PTC 2, which had pretty robust model support. So, while we’ll continue to watch this wave, honestly, there’s nothing intelligible we can say about its future at this time. Unlikely to develop, but there’s a small chance. We’ll see where we are next week.

Beyond that, there’s nothing on our radar for the next 10 days or so. Hopefully we can enjoy another July lull this year after a fairly busy start to the month. More next week!

Good morning! The thermometer topped out at 101 degrees yesterday officially in Houston, which tied the record for June 23rd, last set in 2009. It’s hot, it’s going to continue, but we still think next week will be slightly, if not much improved. More on all that in a second.

The most common questions we have been getting of late are two-fold: “How similar is this summer to 2011?” (the epic drought summer), and “Does a hot June portend a hot July and August?” Let’s start with the 2011 comparison.

First off, while the drought is not as severe, 2022 has been hotter than 2011. The May 1-June 23 period checks in at an average (high + low, divided by two) of 83.4°, which smashes the record of 81.8° set in 2011 and again in 2018. The difference between 2011 and 2022 at this point is the extremeness of the heat. We are lagging 2011 in terms of warm temperature records set. But the consistency and persistence of stronger than normal heat is ridiculous. Our last below normal day was June 3rd. Depending on exactly how next week shapes up, we should see our hottest June on record this year.

Interestingly, 2011 was hotter during the daytimes, but June 2022 is running almost 2 degrees above 2011 at night. And don’t even get me started on Galveston. The Island has set or tied *33* warm low temperature records just since May 1st. These are signals consistent with climate change, urban sprawl, and a very warm Gulf in our backyard.

The second question about whether we can derive any insights for the rest of summer based on June’s outcome is a little trickier to answer. In general, what occurs in June has very little in common with July and August outcomes here in Houston. We can see this on a scatter plot, which simply compares the June average temperature on the y-axis with the July average temperature on the x-axis.

The chart above shows June vs. July in Houston. A June vs. August or July vs. August chart would not look too dissimilar. There’s definitely a loose correlation (hot Junes do favor hot Julys), but it’s pretty weak overall.

Now, what if we just look at some more significant drought summers. Drought would typically imply a stable pattern, much like we’ve seen this year. So I went back and looked at the Texas averaged Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) by month back to 1950. I parsed out the March through May values and extrapolated out an approximate June 2022 value. In other words, I looked at a drought classification for all of Texas between March and June and found the 13 closest matches to 2022. Does that change the outcome? For July it does, significantly so. Remove 2011 from the sample, and there is virtually no correlation whatsoever.

But what of August? That story appears a bit different.

While there is a very nice correlation showing up here, a sample size of 13 summers feels just a little too small to say anything definitively. In fact, if we again remove the hottest outcome there, 2011, it cuts the R^2 value almost in half, implying a much weaker correlation.

What is the takeaway here? A hot June tells us very little about the subsequent July outcome other than it may also tend to be on the hotter side. A hot June in a drought year may also slightly favor a hot August outcome, but the sample size is too small to say anything with confidence. So, if you are hoping that the rest of summer is not as abnormally hot as June, you do have at least some hope here.

Drought update

With new burn bans and water restrictions being issued daily across the region, a look at the drought map explains why.

The coverage of drought changed little across our area with yesterday’s update, and the southern half of the region remains in D3, or extreme drought conditions. But we continue to receive minimal relief. That may change next week, however.

Today through Sunday

Hot, hot, hot. Look for temperatures near 100° or hotter each afternoon with just the slightest chance for a shower or storm. Morning lows should be in the 70s inland and 80s near the bays and Gulf and perhaps in the Inner Loop. Heat index values should flirt with 105° each afternoon, so please use caution outdoors.

Next week: Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes

As the upper level high pressure system responsible for our scorching weekend escapes westward next week, this will open the Gulf up for daily thunderstorm chances. In any other summer, next week would not look overly impressive. Given how little rain we’ve had, however, just the chance at daily showers returning will likely make a big difference, at least temporarily.

I think the highest odds for more widespread coverage of showers will be on Tuesday, Wednesday, and perhaps Friday. We’re looking at something like 30 to 40 percent coverage of showers on average each day, with perhaps a couple days seeing 50 or 60 percent coverage. This means that you probably won’t see rain every day, but most of us will see at least some rain on a couple days. Let’s hope for around a half-inch of rain on average next week, with a few more frequently hit spots picking up 1 to 3 inches perhaps. It won’t end the drought, but it will definitely help.

As a result of the showers and clouds, look for high temperatures to back off into the mid-90s or low-90s most days. Lows should remain in the 70s.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center has increased the odds of development of a disturbance in far eastern Atlantic to 60 percent over the next five days.

This is rather far east for a system to develop at this point in the season, so it’s certainly noteworthy. However, from a Gulf Coast-centric perspective, this has a long, long way to go. Initially, my thought is that after next week’s rainy pattern, a hotter, drier pattern is going to attempt to again re-establish over Texas for the week of July 4th, which would be about the time this disturbance makes it into the vicinity of the Gulf. A stronger system would likely turn north before getting here, while a weaker system would likely be squashed by that ridge and forced into Mexico or Central America. So at this point, I don’t view it as something to worry about, but it’s worth checking back in on after the weekend.

Yesterday’s drought monitor update showed that drought has indeed expanded around the Houston area, rather significantly too.

Coverage of drought increased almost 10 percent, while coverage of extreme drought (Level 3 of 4) in the southern half of the region almost tripled week over week. We are still well behind 2011’s pace. At this point in 2011, the entire metro area was in level 4 of 4 (exceptional drought) compared to 0 percent today. But we are clearly in drought now, and it’s only going to get more extensive from here.

That said, we may get a little relief today!

Today

Today is beginning on a quiet, warm note once again. But there are actually some showers on radar in Louisiana, which indicates a weak little disturbance passing by. As that moves through our area today, we should expect to see at least a handful of showers or downpours develop. Let’s be fair here: Rain chances are only about 20 to 30 percent, but it’s the highest they have been recently and the highest they will be for a while to come.

There’s a better chance you won’t see rain today than you will, but at least there’s a chance. Aside from that, expect mid to upper 90s with sun, clouds, and a touch of Saharan dust still.

Saturday and Sunday

For the weekend, the good news is that if you’re planning anything for Father’s Day or Juneteenth celebrations, you probably won’t get rained on. The better news is that the Saharan dust will be outta’ here as well. So it will look a bit less hazy outside.

Of course, we stand a really good chance at finally breaching the 100 degree mark officially this weekend (yes, many of you already have reached this point but IAH has not), particularly on Sunday. Either way, it looks hot.

Next week

More of the same. 100 degree chances are with us Monday and maybe Tuesday with very slim to no rain chances. Atmospheric moisture levels look rather low most of next week, so I don’t expect much if any rainfall for most of the week.

Temperatures may actually bottom out on Tuesday or Wednesday. With a rebuilding ridge toward the end of the week, we may actually see our hottest weather of summer so far. More on that Monday. Whether it’s 98 or 102 next week, it’s just going to be hot.

Nothing out there we need to monitor for the tropics at this time.

I’ll leave on a quick note: If you missed Eric’s post yesterday, version 1.5 of the Space City Weather app is now available, and we encourage you to upgrade and inform us of any bugs you encounter. Thank you as always for your support.

We managed 99 degrees officially again on Monday in Houston, but you may have noticed at least a little less humidity around that peak heating. It’s not much but it does help. So does air conditioning. Your author got his back before Monday afternoon, so we’ll call that a win.

Anyway, the hot weather will continue and so will the dust.

Today

Look for another day with clouds, haze, and sun. We should be able to shave a degree or two off yesterday’s 99 degrees, so look for something more in the mid to upper-90s. Another burst of Saharan dust arriving today should help us double down on the hazy conditions and poor air quality. If you are asthmatic or are sensitive to poor air quality, it would be a good idea to limit outdoor time as much as possible the next few days.

Wednesday through Friday

Of the next few days, only Friday carries something above a 10 percent chance of a shower. Look for sun, clouds, and continued Saharan dust, likely at its worst on Thursday.

High temperatures will continue in the mid to upper-90s, with lows in the 70s and 80s. Those Friday rain chances stand at around 20 percent, so a few locations could see a welcome shower or downpour but most will not.

The Saharan dust event should end on Friday, with better air quality and less haze for the upcoming weekend.

Weekend into next week

More of the same. The weak backdoor cold front (a front that comes out of the northeast…from Louisiana) that we were looking at on Sunday looks to get held up to our east. Truthfully, I just don’t see anything better than 20 percent rain chances on any given day into the middle of next week. Highs will be well into the 90s each day.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center continues to outline this area in the Caribbean for a chance at development over the next 5 days.

This is not a concern for Texas, and it’s rather easy to explain why. Our weather pattern over the next week (and beyond) will continue to be dominated by this fluctuating ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere over the Central U.S. As this system waxes, wanes, waxes, and moves around, one thing stays true: It stays in a position to basically shield Texas from any tropical nonsense right now.

This is both good and bad. It’s good because we could use a year off from hurricane risks. It’s bad, however, because it is likely going to cause the drought across much of Texas to expand and intensify. We could use a little surge of tropical moisture for a couple days. It appears we’re not going to line things up correctly.

Will this heat ever end?

This brings me to the last point today: Many of you are asking when this abnormally hot weather will end. Texas is always hot in summer, but we’re running consistently above average right now, more like July than June. The honest answer is that I have absolutely no idea when this will end.

We’re getting ourselves into a bit of a pickle right now, with a stubborn weather pattern that keeps reinforcing itself over the Plains. Just look at that loop above and you’ll see this. There’s a saying in meteorology that “drought begets drought,” as patterns can occasionally start acting on feedback loops. More dry air, more dry soil, more dry air, more heat, more dry air, etc. I see absolutely nothing right now that would act as a catalyst for change, so we may be stuck in this morass for the rest of June at least, if not longer. We’ve been telegraphing this for a couple months now, but prepare to hear more about drought, burn bans, and maybe more in the weeks ahead. Things can always change, of course, but we’ve got little data to predict change right now.