Matt Lanza

Good morning! We’re back on schedule today. A quick housekeeping note: We are aware of some app and email issues. We’ll address those as soon as possible. Thankfully it’s a quiet week! Just as a reminder, for backup, you can follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram, where we usually post daily.

On to the forecast.

Today

No one hit the Mega Millions on Tuesday, but we did have some local winners of the rainfall lottery! They included portions of southern Fort Bend County, the east side of Houston (Mason and Magnolia Park and Pleasantville), and just southwest of Alvin. It was more than one place like Monday, so you all split the jackpot. Congrats!

I think today will see a similar type setup, with a smattering of showers getting a few places wet. This will keep us slightly cooler again. We “only” hit 97 officially yesterday, so today should be similar, with mid to upper 90s across most of the area. Again, most of the area will be dry but at least a few neighborhoods could see an inch or two of rain.

Thursday

Tomorrow should be a lot like today, however it could be a notch or two hotter, with a few less showers. So maybe just a couple neighborhoods see showers tomorrow versus several today. Expect mid to upper 90s again.

Friday

We get a little more pop on Friday which should increase shower coverage closer to what we see today instead of Thursday. Again, most folks will still stay dry, but several neighborhoods should at least cash in on some rainfall.

So, if you want a quick guide to rainfall chances:

Wednesday: 30 percent
Thursday: 20 percent
Friday: 30 percent

Weekend

Both weekend days will see sun, clouds, and heat. Look for mid to upper 90s, again, on both days. Rain chances likely drop a bit compared to Friday, so I would call it 20 percent or less.

Next week

A return to hotter, drier weather seems likely as the week goes on, though I’d keep rain chances above zero each day at least. Instead of 20 to 30 percent odds like we have this week, perhaps it will be more like 10 to 20 percent odds next week. This will be especially true later in the week.

Will this ever end?

The update today is…not great. Obviously, model accuracy fades as you go later in time, but if you look at both the GFS and European ensemble forecasts for day 15, which takes us to August 10th, we see a pretty solid ridge over the Southern Plains.

It means that we will likely continue to persist with hotter than usual temperatures and fewer daily rain showers than usual into mid-August. So, no, I honestly can’t tell you when this will end.

Another week with a quiet Atlantic basin. No complaints here, though we really do need some rain.

Tropical outlook in a sentence

The Atlantic basin seems likely to stay mostly dormant for at least another week, as no reliable modeling is indicating any meaningful development anywhere at this time.

What gives?

Surely by now we should have had another system, right? Not necessarily. If we look at climatology, the fourth named storm of the season usually doesn’t occur until mid-August. So, we’re tracking in line with climatology. Of course, when the sales pitch coming into this season was for it to be another busy year, an average start may raise a few eyebrows. I still wouldn’t read too much into things at this point, and I would still almost certainly expect the season to finish busier than normal. But for now, just know that this isn’t out of bounds in terms of what is typical, even in active seasons.

Where to watch

While we see absolutely nothing in the models that suggests any sort of tropical development is likely over the next 2 weeks, a look at where storms have historically originated from August 1 through 10 is telling.

Two clusters stand out in the Atlantic: First, the Gulf and second just east of the Lesser Antilles. So if we wanted to look somewhere for tropical development over the next week or two, those would be good places to start. The Gulf is interesting because so many storms formed *in* the Gulf. In other words, you’re more like to get “homebrew” storms than long trackers right now. So while we believe things will be quiet over the next week or two, it’s always important for meteorologists to keep tabs on any thunderstorms that find their way into the Gulf for that reason.

The Gulf is warm — does it matter?

One question we’ve been getting more and more of lately is whether or not the hot weather this summer has led to the Gulf being abnormally warm. The answer is yes.

The Gulf is much warmer than usual virtually everywhere. It’s especially notable south of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and off the west coast of Florida. The thing about a warm Gulf, however, is that, while not great to see, it doesn’t overly concern us because a.) things can change quickly if the pattern were to change and b.) the Gulf is almost always going to be very supportive of tropical systems. In other words, it’s not a guarantee that we’re in for trouble this year. But it does give us some pause. Of course, tropical storms need more than just warm water. One of the best examples of a Texas storm that struggled despite a fairly warm Gulf was Tropical Storm Don in 2011. While the Gulf wasn’t quite as warm as it is this year, it was still warm. Don got absolutely annihilated by dry air due Texas’s drought, as well as wind shear. Then you get years like 2005 or 2020 where everything hits the warm Gulf and seems to explode. Again, not great but not a promise of ugly days ahead. We’ll of course keep watch!

Sorry for the late post! Pearland and Friendswood were the big winners of Monday’s rainfall lottery. Pearland saw 1 to 3 inches east of 288, centered right over downtown. Friendswood saw a bit less, around 1 to 2 inches, mainly along and west of Dixie Farm Road.

That was basically the only meaningful shower in our area yesterday. We will give it another go today.

Today

Atmospheric moisture is just a little higher today than it was yesterday. This should translate to at least a few additional showers and storms in the area. Indeed, we are already seeing at least a few showers on the radar as of this later than usual post. Much like yesterday, the heaviest action may be fairly isolated, but you could quickly go from no rain to 2 or 3 inches in the right scenario. Chances today are around 30 percent. Highs will be in the mid to upper-90s to near 100 in spots.

Wednesday through Friday

Yesterday I noted how this would probably end up being the most “normal” week we’ve had so far this summer. This is very much embodied in the forecast for Wednesday through Friday. First off, the heat will remain with us: Expect mid to upper-90s each day with 70s to near 80 each morning.

As far as rain chances go, there will be little in the way of specific predictability as to where and when rain will occur over the next few days. We know that there will be roughly a 20 to 30 percent chance each day, with storms likely starting on the edge of the sea breeze moving in from the Gulf. From there, atmospheric “bumper cars” will probably take hold, where outflow boundaries (or the rain cooled breezes that precede storms) bump into each other and form new storms on their way inland. There’s little predictability to how that all unfolds, short of us saying there’s a chance of storms each day. We may get a better sense of which days have higher rain odds than others as the week progresses.

Inland areas won’t be shut out, but their rain chances are lower than in the city and south. We desperately need rain in some of those inland locales. Per the Houston National Weather Service office, the 0.21 inches of rain in College Station since June 1st makes for the driest June/July combo on record, back to 1882.

Weekend

More of the same, as it stands right now: Sun, clouds, mid to upper 90s or hotter and low-end rain chances each day.

Next week

We have not officially hit 100 degrees since Thursday. Could that change next week? Yes. High pressure is expected to re-intensify over Texas next week, which probably means we’ll lower the rain chances a bit and dial back up the heat a little more.

Monday and Tuesday probably start the same as the weekend, but things begin to cook for mid to late week.

Tropics

All is quiet. We’ll have our weekly Eye on the Tropics published later this afternoon explaining more about what’s happening.

The Houston area has sort of settled into a happy (?) medium this weekend with moderate heat, a good bit of sunshine, but definitely at least a handful of showers each afternoon. Some locations in northern Harris County (Louetta, Champions, Klein) saw an inch to an inch and a half of rain on Sunday. A few other areas also saw wetting showers. Some saw nothing all weekend. As we go through this week, the expectation should be for fairly similar weather: Sun, heat, and at least a few showers each day. This may actually be our most “normal” week of summer so far.

Today

Today should bring us similar weather to the weekend, with at least a couple storms around this afternoon. Coverage today may be a bit underwhelming, so consider yourself fortunate if you see one. We will likely top out in the upper-90s, similar to perhaps a touch hotter than the weekend.

Tuesday

Tomorrow will see more of the same. Rain chances should be a little higher than they will be today, however, and they may be the peak of this week. Expect maybe a 20 to 30 percent chance that you’ll win the rainfall lottery. Temperatures should be mainly in the mid-90s, but they’ll be a bit hotter where it doesn’t rain and cooler where it does.

Wednesday & Thursday

The mid to late week period will also see elevated rain chances in that 20 to 30 percent range, but again each day will be like playing the rainfall lottery. Still, it’s something. Highs will be in the mid to upper-90s.

Friday & weekend

The weekend forecast stays at least a little interesting from a rain chance perspective. A front should stall to the north of the region, allowing places like Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Kansas to get some meaningful rain. For us, the overall pattern should kick up atmospheric moisture a bit up to about the 90th percentile or a bit higher. In simple language? There will be a little more “juice” to work with, especially Friday and possibly Saturday. Coverage of storms should increase a bit on those days before declining some on Sunday.

It would appear that hotter, low rain chance type weather may rebound next week. More on all that in the coming days.

Tropics

All in quiet. A tropical wave in the Atlantic looked as if it could develop later this week, but model support for that has plummeted in the last 36 hours. It’s still a bit hostile out there. More in tomorrow’s tropical update.

Just a quick note: Tomorrow’s posts will likely be delayed, but we’ll have something out to you by late morning. The tropics post will get pushed tomorrow later in the afternoon or evening. Thanks for your patience!