Matt Lanza

Hobby Airport has started December with back to back 80 degree days, and there could be more to come. The last time we did back to back 80s in December was in 2019. We also accomplished the feat in 2016, 2015, 2013, and 2012, so it’s not super abnormal. Whatever the case, this is quite a departure from when I last wrote in this space a week ago and we had multiple European model ensemble members depicting 30s for lows in Houston this weekend. You can forget that. Let’s talk about what we can expect.

Today

Look for more fog this morning that should again lift by mid-morning in most spots. Dense Fog Advisories are posted around the region, but the fog is a bit spotty. It appears Brazoria County has some dense, as may parts of Montgomery County. The Beaumont/Port Arthur area is also seeing dense fog. Everyone else seems to be fine or seeing lighter fog. But you may run into some patches of dense fog as you maneuver around the area this morning.

Once the fog lifts, we will be left with a mix of clouds and sun this afternoon, as highs again make a run for 80 degrees. One of the differences between yesterday and today is that we could see a couple sprinkles or showers as a weak disturbance passes by. It may be enough to wet the ground in a few spots, but that’s about all.

Weekend

Saturday will see any morning fog lift once again, leading to a partly to mostly sunny day. A few showers can’t be ruled out Saturday afternoon, but those would be the exception, not the rule. Look for highs in the upper-70s to around 80 degrees after a warm morning in the mid-60s.

Look for mostly the same on Sunday, except it may be more like partly to mostly cloudy. Again, a slight chance of showers will exist, but nothing you need to change plans for I don’t think. Another morning in the mid-60s or warmer will transition to an afternoon in the upper-70s to 80 degrees or so.

Monday

Here’s where some intrigue begins. A cold front should actually press through the region early in the day. We will probably start the day well into the 60s in most spots, and then when the front passes through we will see temps hold or drop a bit. So 80 degrees probably isn’t in the cards for Monday.

Instead, expect a period of morning showers and storms, then cooler, breezy weather in the afternoon. Temperatures should drop into the 50s on Monday night.

Tuesday and beyond

Offshore winds are going to flip around and become onshore winds quickly late Monday night and Tuesday, leading to a substantial increase in moisture. Beyond that, we could be entering a bit of an active period of weather with showers, storms, and even some strong storms in the area ahead of another cold front. This would be most likely later Tuesday or Wednesday. Cooler air would settle in late next week but probably again for only a couple days. By next Saturday, the GFS Ensemble mean already has an over 90% chance that temperature anomalies will be at least 10 degrees warmer than normal.

This means that of the 30+ GFS ensemble members, almost all of them see much above normal temperatures again next weekend.

The Arctic Oscillation

I’m going to take you more under the hood about things right now. Meteorologists use numerous tools to make forecasts. One of those tools is called “teleconnections.” We don’t often talk about those here in an effort not to bore you, but I think it’s instructive today and can explain some of why December looks to be so much different than how autumn has been for the last month or so.

Teleconnections are ways of explaining that because one thing happened in one place, there’s more predictability that something else could happen in another place. In other words, if you have a certain pattern over Alaska, that can often teleconnect to a certain pattern downstream over the continental United States. There are numerous teleconnections we can use, but one of the most useful ones is called the “Arctic Oscillation,” or AO. You can read more about the AO here if you’d like. The simplest explanation? As the AO trends more positive, this indicates a stronger polar vortex, one that’s more likely to stay near the North Pole where it belongs. We typically lean milder in those scenarios with most cold remaining in the high latitudes. If the AO flips significantly negative it can mean the polar vortex has weakened and is more likely to allow chunks of cold to travel south toward the mid-latitudes where more people live. For example, just ahead of the massive February freeze last winter, the AO got as low as -5, which was one of the most negative values of this index recorded since 1950. That did not cause us to get super cold here in Texas, but you bet it helped explain why.

So, why am I telling you about this? Well, if you look at a forecast of the AO Index for the next 2 weeks, what stands out?

It’s raging positive (green line). We are frequently forecast to be at or above +2, with some ensemble members getting as strong as +4 to +5 at times. While this doesn’t guarantee that we’re going to stay warm deep into December, it sure skews the odds that way. No single teleconnection is a magic bullet in meteorology, but they serve as pieces to a larger, complex puzzle we try to solve each day. Today, this one stands out as one that will have an outsized influence on our December weather, so I thought it would be a good time to explain this to you. Hopefully it’s insightful! Enjoy the weekend.

Alright, this weekend won’t be that bad, but you will notice a lot of high clouds streaming across throughout the day today, rain developing tomorrow, and lingering clouds on Sunday.

First, some quick housekeeping. Our annual site fundraiser is in the final days! We are so incredibly grateful for everyone’s support. Thank you so much.

I hope everyone had a happy Thanksgiving. Yesterday’s rain was a bit weird in that it was widespread, but some areas saw quite a bit and others saw mostly minor amounts.

Places like Mont Belvieu saw nearly 3 inches of rain. The Woodlands got 1 to 2 inches of rain. Sugar Land saw nearly an inch. Downtown Houston and most of western Harris County? About a quarter-inch. Same story for most of Galveston County and the Island. At least we salvaged the latter part of the day in most places.

Today

With all of Thanksgiving’s mess cleared out, we transition today to fair weather. Expect sun filtered through periods of high cloudiness today. Temperatures are starting the day in the 40s for most with a few pockets of 30s here and there.

With the clouds around, we will likely stay in the 50s in most spots today for high temperatures.

Saturday

Clouds will thicken up some tonight. This should prevent temperatures from falling quite so far, and we should expect generally 40s to low-50s on Saturday morning. A disturbance will be approaching from the west through the morning and afternoon, and it will allow rain to begin to break out from west to east through the day. This will be a mostly light to moderate rain, though perhaps it will be briefly heavy at times south of I-10. Temperatures will warm until the rain starts, and then they’ll drop a few degrees. Look for mostly 50s, and areas west of Houston could fall back into the 40s by late afternoon. Rain will end from west to east on Saturday night.

Rain totals should be a quarter to three-quarters of an inch for most, with a few higher amounts possible.

Sunday

Look for clouds to linger, but the rain should be done. Some sun is possible, which would allow us to crack 60 degrees in many spots after beginning the day in the upper-40s to low-50s.

Next week

The week should start off lovely with sunshine on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Temperatures will add a few degrees each day, and we should see 70s by Wednesday. The late part of next week could even see temperatures approach 80 degrees depending on the timing of our next cold front. There are hints in the models today that we could briefly see some pretty chilly air next weekend with 30s for lows possible over a wide area. Not a major freeze or anything like that, but chilly! We’ll watch that next week to see how it evolves. Enjoy the weekend!

Though this weekend will be a little more mixed than the previous three, it will likely go into the record books as a win when all is said and done. Our roller coaster of cold fronts will continue into next week, with Thanksgiving still a little uncertain. More on that below.

Today & Saturday

Chilly temperatures are back this morning as the drier, cooler air settles in overhead.

Look for a lovely day today with sunshine and highs in the 60s. Tomorrow will begin a couple degrees milder than today, but still cool with 40s and 50s for most folks. Sunshine will dominate the day, with temperatures bouncing back into the lower 70s across the area.

Sunday

Our winds shift back onshore Sunday out ahead of the next front. We’ll see humidity increase a bit, along with clouds and temperatures. We should manage to see 50s and 60s in the morning warming well into the 70s in the afternoon. Some 80 degree weather is possible Sunday with enough sunshine. It won’t be oppressively humid by any means, but you’ll certainly notice the difference from Saturday.

The cold front itself will likely pass the region late in the afternoon or evening. Much like yesterday’s front, it does look to lack a little punch, so any showers or storms would likely be isolated at worst. Still, if you have some late afternoon outdoor plans on Sunday just be aware that it could rain for a brief time.

Monday & Tuesday

Behind Sunday’s front, we’ll get to experience much of the same weather we’ve had behind other fronts this month: Look for sunshine on Monday and Tuesday. The air mass behind this front looks just a little colder than the current one, so I would expect more low to mid-40s in the area, with a few 30s peppered in for outlying, rural spots or the usual chilly spots like Conroe, particularly on Tuesday morning. Daytime highs will be stuck in the 60s.

Wednesday

For those traveling Wednesday, there should be no serious issues across Texas or Louisiana. For those flying out Wednesday, the only real issues might be in the Northeast, as gusty winds linger behind a coastal storm up that way. So Boston, NYC, and Philly might see some delays. But the weather will be clearing out up there on Wednesday. A weak system in the Rockies may produce some generally light higher elevation snow.

For Houston, it looks fine with more sun, a few more clouds and warmer weather. Highs will be in the 70s after morning lows in the 50s.

Thanksgiving Day & Friday

The weather picture gets more interesting on Thanksgiving and Friday. It’s still early to have high confidence in any specifics, but as of right now I think the first half of Thanksgiving will be fine. So if you’re gearing up for the Turkey Trot, the weather itself should be fine. For now. It will be a bit warm and muggy though with temperatures in the 60s and building humidity.

From there, the picture muddies. A relatively strong storm is expected to develop in Texas and push a cold front through either Thursday night or Friday morning. It’s far too early to get too cute with details, but this does have the potential to produce some strong storms, locally heavy rain, gusty winds, followed by much cooler weather into next weekend. No freezes or anything like that, but noticeably colder. We should get more clarity on this by Monday. But for those of you traveling across Texas on Thursday, be aware that this may factor into your plans.

Fundraiser

I just want to echo Eric’s sentiment in thanking you all for your support during our annual fundraiser. You have two weeks left to get your order in for shirts, hats, umbrellas, or tumblers, or just make a contribution to the site! We can’t thank you enough.

For those able to enjoy weekends, congratulations. For the third weekend in a row, we are expecting just stunningly beautiful, chamber of commerce type weather.

Fundraiser

I just want to echo Eric’s sentiment this week, and I want to thank everyone who has been so generous during our annual fundraiser. We sincerely appreciate you, and we are truly humbled by your support. The fundraiser continues for another 18 days, and we’ve got some cool options available here. You can read more from Eric’s post on Tuesday here. Thank you, truly.

Today through Sunday

Temperatures this morning are noticeably cooler than they were 24 hours ago.

It’s a refreshing start to the day, with 40s and 50s in most spots and 60s along the coast. We’ll see ample sunshine with highs well into the 70s today. We had a cold front yesterday, but it’s still going to be a little warm this afternoon, so what gives? Yesterday’s front was more of a humidity front than a true cold front, so it ushered in drier air for today but the air mass wasn’t really a lot cooler. If you took the temperature about 5,000′ over our heads, which is a good altitude to look at to define the “air mass,” today is only about 3 or 4 degrees cooler than it was yesterday. But it was the dry air that helped allow temperatures to drop more this morning. Now, a secondary front is going to usher in the notably cooler air tonight. That air mass 5,000′ over our heads will drop about 10 to 12 degrees behind that front. This second front will have no moisture to work with, so no rain is expected, but winds may pick up just a bit after it passes and linger into Saturday.

That secondary front will allow temperatures to dip into the 40s tonight across most of the area.

Saturday should be another beautiful day with full sunshine. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler though, with highs only in the 60s. Look for mostly a rinse and repeat on Sunday, with morning lows in the 40s and a slightly warmer afternoon around 70° or in the low-70s.

Monday

Look for the time honored tradition of onshore flow to resume sometime on Monday. Initially, the day will start cool once again, with 40s or 50s across the region, but we’ll warm into the mid-70s in most spots during the afternoon.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Onshore flow will likely strengthen some here as a fairly tight pressure gradient boosts southerly winds a bit. Tuesday should start in the 50s to near 60, then warm deep into the 70s with sunshine. An 80 degree reading can’t be entirely ruled out in spots on Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday, look for higher humidity to have fully taken hold with a warm morning (60s) and a rather warm afternoon (80 degrees or better). We should also begin to see a few more clouds by Wednesday.

Beyond Wednesday

The forecast after Wednesday begins to get a little difficult. I think we should see a cold front arrive sometime around Thursday or Friday, but what happens after that front gets through is tough to say. I’m not sure we are going to lock in a fourth consecutive gorgeous weekend, though that’s not an impossibility. But it would appear another front or two could be in the mix heading into Thanksgiving week, with perhaps the strongest one yet just prior to the holiday.

The usual doomsayers have been spreading rumors and such out there on YouTube and Facebook/Meta about “the polar vortex,” among other nonsense. Quite frankly, nothing we’re seeing in the Thanksgiving week timeframe looks that remarkable. As our average temperatures drop and the fronts get a little stronger, perhaps we could see our first official 30s of the season show up sometime Thanksgiving week. It’s far too early to say that will happen with any confidence though. And anything worse than that seems highly unlikely. The average date of our first sub-40 degree temperature in Houston is November 17th, so that would actually be close to normal. We’ll keep you posted.