Matt Lanza

Good morning. Depending on where you live this morning, it’s either quite stormy, raining gently, flash flooding, or doing not much at all. Most areas should see at least some rain this morning before all is said and done. Additional rain chances will continue through Sunday before a cool front ends this active pattern for us.

Today

The eastern portion of Harris County has seen the bulk of the heaviest rain this morning, with areas north of Channelview through Crosby seeing 3 to 6 inches of rain so far, prompting a Flash Flood Warning through 9 AM for that area.

Over 2 inches of that 5.5″ near Crosby has fallen between 5:30 and 6:30 AM. At one point they had about 3 inches in an hour there. That will do it. Heavy rain continues in that Flash Flood warned area, but hopefully the pace slows over the next hour or so.

Zooming out, heavy rain is also lifting out of Spring Branch and impacting the northwest Beltway as of 6:35 this morning. Additional heavy rain was falling in the Katy and Fulshear areas and to the north in Hempstead and across Waller County. All of this is generally lifting north while redeveloping and easing to the east.

Expect periods of rain, heavy at times through the morning. Localized flash flooding like we see in eastern Harris County this morning can’t be entirely ruled out, so just use caution if you will be out and about through the morning. Rain probably should taper to scattered showers this afternoon. Temps will be held down due to the clouds and rain today, probably no better than the low-80s.

Saturday

Another round of showers and storms scattered over a fairly wide area seems likely tomorrow. If you are trying to make plans for outdoor events, it’s a bit tricky. The guidance I want to give you versus the guidance I can reasonably give you with the model data available are two very different things! Right now, it won’t be a washout it seems. So that’s good. As far as timing, my best guess is that we’ll see showers and storms developing closer to the coast in the morning, then spreading inland through the late morning and early afternoon, somewhat like what we experienced on Thursday. Not everyone sees rain, but those that do could see some fairly heavy rain for a short time. That said, this is very much subject to change, so no matter where or when your plans are tomorrow, at least have a backup option in mind if you get chased indoors by rain for an hour or two. Highs will be in the 80s after morning lows in the 70s.

Sunday into Monday

Alright, the end of this active pattern looks to begin on Sunday. There should still be showers and storms around on Sunday, driven in part by the front which will be dropping southeast through the day. Ahead of the front will see the best chance of rain, and this should include the Houston area through the coast. I don’t think the coverage on Sunday will be quite as significant as we see today and will see tomorrow, but as on those days, any rain could be locally heavy. Look for 80s, possibly mid to upper-80s on Sunday.

As far as the front goes, look for it to slog through the area. It should arrive in Houston on Sunday evening, then only slowly advance to the coast, hopefully clearing it by Monday morning. And I’m intentionally calling this a “cool” front because behind it, while we will have noticeably lower humidity, the temperatures won’t be much more than slightly cooler.

Tuesday and beyond

In fact, Tuesday morning should see pleasant lows in the 60s. Daytime highs, however, will be in the mid-80s at least. The humidity will be much lower though.

This relatively nicer weather should continue most of the week, with sun-filled skies, warm days, and pleasant evenings. The overall pattern across the U.S. is one that favors very warm weather in the northern part of the country, while we see temperatures maybe only a couple degrees above average.

This pattern is important for us here in Houston because it should limit the chances of any very strong cold fronts into Texas. In fact, when I look at most model data after next week, I see minimal chance for any sort of meaningful fronts through mid-month. That could change, obviously but sitting here today, I’m not optimistic we are going to see any legitimately cool weather here anytime soon.

Tropics

Hurricane Sam continues to rage in the open Atlantic, back up to a strong category 4 storm this morning, with winds of 150 mph. Sam has been really incredible to watch meteorologically, and thankfully avoiding all land masses, the best kind of hurricane.

Sam is the strongest storm this far east in the Atlantic this late in the season, according to Dr. Philip Klotzbach at Colorado State University. Behind Sam is Victor, also expected to head safely out to sea.

Our official morning low at IAH Airport was 57° yesterday and 58° today, the coolest pair of back to back days since late April or early May. We are now on the “other side” of things in the wake of the cold front, which means that, while it will still be quite nice the next couple days, it will begin to warm up a bit.

Today & Saturday

Both days look mainly sunny with light winds and comfortable humidity. Look for highs in the mid-80s and nighttime lows inching back into the lower or middle 60s.

As high pressure gradually slips to our east, we will see onshore winds gradually return here, which means humidity will inch back up just a bit also by tomorrow.

Sunday

The end of the weekend will mark the true transition back to more late-summer weather. Expect continued sunshine and a morning low in the mid-60s (warmer at the coast), followed back daytime highs in the mid to upper-80s with a bit more humidity.

Monday & Tuesday

Weather models had been pretty aggressive with bringing rain back to the area next week. For Monday and Tuesday at least, that doesn’t seem too likely. Yes, there will be shower chances on both days, but the setup initially looks kind of mediocre, with probably just a few showers and generally lighter rainfall totals by the end of Tuesday. We will see clouds and plenty of humidity though. Look for highs near 90 degrees and lows in the 70s.

Wednesday & Thursday

The middle to late part of the week may see just a little more support for showers, so rainfall could be a bit more noticeable then. Highs will be contingent on cloud cover and could exceed 90 with enough sunshine, but we’ll generally call for upper-80s or a little cooler with more rain showers.

Overall, we aren’t especially excited about this setup for rain next week. Given the models maybe backing down some today, it looks like an average of 1 to 2 inches is most likely across the region. The highest amounts may be south and west of Houston. Some of you may see less than an inch too. More on this for you Monday.

Late next week

Weather models have been at least hinting at some kind of cold frontal passage later next week for a few days now. It’s too early to get too specific, but I think the evidence points to a couple things right now. First, the “front” will probably not be like this week’s front in that we aren’t going to turn significantly cooler behind it but rather a little cooler but a good bit less humid. I wouldn’t expect 50s for lows right now, but we’ll see.

Second, the timing of the front would be probably next Saturday or Sunday, so most, if not all of next week looks humid. Could all this change? Certainly. We’ll see how things go over the next few days and report back to you next week on what’s happening. So, soak up the next day or two if you like autumn weather.

Tropics

I want to just append a quick note on the tropics today because yesterday morning we had Tropical Depression 18. This morning we have Hurricane Sam. Sam has rapidly intensified into a hurricane out in the open Atlantic.

Sam is expected to become at least a strong Category 3 storm over the next few days which will also help it probably track a little more to the north than it appeared a couple days ago. This should hopefully bypass the Caribbean islands entirely and then turn north and out to sea, though Bermuda may need to keep an eye on Sam. Otherwise, as Eric noted yesterday, at least the Gulf should remain trouble-free.

Have a great weekend!

We continue to enjoy fairly quiet weather across the region in the wake of Hurricane Nicholas. Today will be no exception, though things get a bit more unsettled this weekend. But the drumbeat regarding our first legitimate autumn cold front is growing louder today. For now at least, it would seem that some very nice weather is on the horizon for the back half of next week. More on that below.

Today

Friday will probably be similar to Thursday in a lot of ways with clouds and sunshine sharing the sky. Yesterday saw upper-70s at Bush Airport compared to mid-80s at Hobby. Today should probably see 90 or better in a lot of locations, provided the sun is out a good bit. Otherwise, look for mid to upper-80s, still warmer than Thursday.

Rain chances are quite slim to none today.

Saturday & Sunday

We sort of settle back into more of a typical late summer pattern this weekend, as Eric’s been noting the last couple days. The coverage of showers and storms expected has wobbled a bit lately, but it looks like we’ll have decent coverage of showers tomorrow and maybe a bit less coverage on Sunday. We’ll have a good bit of humidity and highs in the upper-80s to low-90s depending on cloud cover. Morning lows should be in the 70s.

Early next week

Monday looks pretty good right now with just a chance of a shower or storm but otherwise partly to mostly sunny. Look for morning 70s and afternoon 90s. Tuesday looks similar, though with perhaps a slight nudge up in rain chances.

Cold front update!

On to what should be the good news. Both the GFS & European models are in agreement on a cold front coming into the area on Wednesday. They differ on exact timing and how strong it will be, but they both show it distinctly in their forecasts and ensembles for the most part. Here are the low temperature charts from the 51 Euro ensemble members and the 31 GFS ensemble members. I’ve boxed in the period for next week.

The Euro is at nearly 100 percent agreement on a pretty potent cold front reaching the area, closer to Wednesday morning. The GFS, however looks to be at more like 50 to 55 percent agreement, with most ensemble members not quite as cool as the Euro. But, when you look closer at the GFS, it does bring a strong front south; it just manages to whiff to our east, bringing most cool air into Louisiana, rather than Texas. That same chart above and to the right shows more like 90 percent agreement in a front when you look at it for Lake Charles, which seems a bit odd to me.

I would say there’s a bit of uncertainty right now on the finer details, like whether it’s 60 to 65 or 65 to 70 in the mornings late next week (though I will say that it’s quite tantalizing to see several European ensemble members in the 50s). In terms of getting the front through Houston, that’s looking like an increasingly likely proposition. Assuming that’s the case, expect a period of showers or thunderstorms Tuesday night or Wednesday, followed by mostly sunny conditions for the end of the week. Highs would be in the 80s with low humidity. And again, we’ll see about how cool morning lows go.

Tropics

The Atlantic remains active with two areas still holding at a 70 percent chance of development over the next 5 days. Both are expected to head out to sea.

Some folks will continue to point to Invest 95L (the red area in the central Atlantic) as being concerning, but in order for it to come more west, it would have to remain a disheveled mess and would likely get ripped apart before it got far enough west to be concerning. Oh, and with a cold front likely to get well offshore next week, the western Gulf is protected through at least next weekend. In other words, you can rest easy. No concerns for us.

Have a great weekend!

Good evening, and we hope folks are doing well and are safe after the passage of Nicholas. After nearly half a million customers lost power in the Houston area this morning, Centerpoint has restored all but about 150,000 as of 4:45 PM. Meanwhile, Nicholas is just barely a tropical storm, centered in far eastern Chambers County.

Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph, but in the Houston area, most sites are no longer reporting wind gusts, and those that are report fairly benign gusts. Nicholas is done with us, and it’s a reminder that wind and surge are issues here too. The next act will be rainfall and flooding along the central Gulf Coast. About 6 to 10 more inches of rain is possible in eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and parts of the Florida Panhandle from Nicholas as it very, very slowly creeps east across Louisiana tomorrow and Thursday before dissipating.

Hopefully the flooding will not be too serious in those areas, particularly those still very much recovering from Ida.

Back here in Houston, we get to look forward to 2 or 3 days in a row of calmer weather.

Wednesday through Friday

Look for a mix of clouds and sun all three days, with perhaps more sun than clouds on Thursday and/or Friday. Highs will be in the mid-80s tomorrow, upper-80s on Thursday and 90 or so on Friday. Morning lows will be tolerably in the low-70s tomorrow to perhaps mid-70s by Friday in spots. Rain chances are not zero, and it’s possible we could get a few showers or storms here or there, but those should be fleeting and isolated.

Rest of the tropics

A lot of folks are beginning to ask questions about Invest 95L, a tropical disturbance wayyyyy out in the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 90 percent chance of developing by the weekend.

First, let’s just breathe after Nicholas for a moment.

Second, it appears that the models are split into two camps with respect to 95L. Those that strengthen it quickly over the next few days turn it north into the open Atlantic quickly. Those that don’t, keep it coming west or west-northwest into the islands or just north of there by the weekend. So far as I can tell, there is not one single ensemble member of 85 on either the GFS or Euro that delivers 95L into the Gulf of Mexico. Most turn it out to sea before getting to the islands. Still, it’s probably something to check in on again in a few days. But at this point, we don’t view this as a serious concern for the Houston area. Rest easy tonight if you’re able.

A final word

Thanks to all of you for your kind words of support and encouragement through yet another storm. We are grateful to those of you that choose us and share us with your friends and family. This certainly was not an easy forecast, but we tried our best to manage expectations throughout. We always put a lot of thought into our word choices and the messages we want to send, and it’s a responsibility we don’t take lightly. Certainly a few lessons learned from the ramp up in intensity last night that we’ll carry forward with us for the future too. But, whether you’re a new reader or a longtime reader, thanks for sticking with us, and we hope to be your choice during the next storm, whenever it may occur.

Eric will have our usual daily update in the morning.