Matt Lanza

For those able to enjoy weekends, congratulations. For the third weekend in a row, we are expecting just stunningly beautiful, chamber of commerce type weather.

Fundraiser

I just want to echo Eric’s sentiment this week, and I want to thank everyone who has been so generous during our annual fundraiser. We sincerely appreciate you, and we are truly humbled by your support. The fundraiser continues for another 18 days, and we’ve got some cool options available here. You can read more from Eric’s post on Tuesday here. Thank you, truly.

Today through Sunday

Temperatures this morning are noticeably cooler than they were 24 hours ago.

It’s a refreshing start to the day, with 40s and 50s in most spots and 60s along the coast. We’ll see ample sunshine with highs well into the 70s today. We had a cold front yesterday, but it’s still going to be a little warm this afternoon, so what gives? Yesterday’s front was more of a humidity front than a true cold front, so it ushered in drier air for today but the air mass wasn’t really a lot cooler. If you took the temperature about 5,000′ over our heads, which is a good altitude to look at to define the “air mass,” today is only about 3 or 4 degrees cooler than it was yesterday. But it was the dry air that helped allow temperatures to drop more this morning. Now, a secondary front is going to usher in the notably cooler air tonight. That air mass 5,000′ over our heads will drop about 10 to 12 degrees behind that front. This second front will have no moisture to work with, so no rain is expected, but winds may pick up just a bit after it passes and linger into Saturday.

That secondary front will allow temperatures to dip into the 40s tonight across most of the area.

Saturday should be another beautiful day with full sunshine. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler though, with highs only in the 60s. Look for mostly a rinse and repeat on Sunday, with morning lows in the 40s and a slightly warmer afternoon around 70° or in the low-70s.

Monday

Look for the time honored tradition of onshore flow to resume sometime on Monday. Initially, the day will start cool once again, with 40s or 50s across the region, but we’ll warm into the mid-70s in most spots during the afternoon.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Onshore flow will likely strengthen some here as a fairly tight pressure gradient boosts southerly winds a bit. Tuesday should start in the 50s to near 60, then warm deep into the 70s with sunshine. An 80 degree reading can’t be entirely ruled out in spots on Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday, look for higher humidity to have fully taken hold with a warm morning (60s) and a rather warm afternoon (80 degrees or better). We should also begin to see a few more clouds by Wednesday.

Beyond Wednesday

The forecast after Wednesday begins to get a little difficult. I think we should see a cold front arrive sometime around Thursday or Friday, but what happens after that front gets through is tough to say. I’m not sure we are going to lock in a fourth consecutive gorgeous weekend, though that’s not an impossibility. But it would appear another front or two could be in the mix heading into Thanksgiving week, with perhaps the strongest one yet just prior to the holiday.

The usual doomsayers have been spreading rumors and such out there on YouTube and Facebook/Meta about “the polar vortex,” among other nonsense. Quite frankly, nothing we’re seeing in the Thanksgiving week timeframe looks that remarkable. As our average temperatures drop and the fronts get a little stronger, perhaps we could see our first official 30s of the season show up sometime Thanksgiving week. It’s far too early to say that will happen with any confidence though. And anything worse than that seems highly unlikely. The average date of our first sub-40 degree temperature in Houston is November 17th, so that would actually be close to normal. We’ll keep you posted.

Yesterday felt like the first real day of autumn: Cloudy skies, temperatures hobbling into the mid to upper-50s, a little breeze. It was rather raw. Today? Much different! This sets the stage for a fantastic weekend, our second in a row.

Today

Temperatures are rather cool this morning. There are pockets of 30s up toward Conroe and Huntsville, 40s away from the coast and low-50s closer to the coast.

Look for any lingering clouds at the coast to dissipate this morning, and the day should roll on with sunshine. It will warm up much more than yesterday, and we should manage mostly mid, maybe upper-60s with a light north wind.

Weekend

Both Saturday and Sunday should see wall to wall sunshine. Look for morning lows in the 40s tomorrow, with temperatures warming to near 70 degrees.

On Sunday, we’ll see morning lows in the 40s and 50s and daytime highs in the lower 70s. A slow warm up.

PS: Don’t forget we “fall back” on Saturday night, so we will have earlier sunrises (which if you have young kids, they will definitely make sure you see it) and sunsets beginning on Sunday. And the microwave clock you forgot to change will be lying to you.

Monday & Tuesday

We look to turn things back onshore Monday and Tuesday, which means we’ll slowly warm up some more and see minor amounts of humidity return. Look for more sunshine on Monday and a few extra clouds building in through the day on Tuesday. Morning lows will generally be in the 50s, with highs in the 70s on both days, possibly upper-70s to near 80 degrees in spots on Tuesday, depending on sunshine.

Next front next week

Our next front is penciled in right now for next Thursday or Friday. This one may be a little more complex to forecast than the one we just experienced, as it will be attached to what is expected to be a somewhat stronger Plains or Midwest storm. There are still some uncertainties on the exact track and intensity of that storm. While we don’t expect significant direct impacts from it, that does impact the timing of the front some. There could be widespread 80s for highs on Thursday, with a breezy onshore wind. We could also see some showers or thunderstorms with the front later Thursday or Friday and some gusty winds behind it too. Nothing too serious it doesn’t appear, but a definite change in the weather. We’ll update you on that Monday.

Yesterday was one of the strongest non-tropical wind events we’ve had around here in recent memory. It was both impressive and unsettling, as I can attest to nearly being taken out by a falling piece of iron on McKinney Street in downtown Houston. Winds gusted as high as 61 mph at Hobby Airport, 64 mph in Cypress, 52 mph in Pearland, and 49 mph in League City. Thousands lost power for a time due to the wind. We will continue to have windy weather today, but it should be less extreme than Thursday’s gusts. We then expect an absolutely sublime weekend of weather.

Today

If winds gusted 40 to 60 mph yesterday, they should gust more like 25 to 40 mph today. It will be something you certainly notice, but it will definitely be less than yesterday’s madness. Winds will kick up as the sun gets higher in the sky this morning, then they’ll actually begin to back off some as the afternoon wears on.

Otherwise, expect sunshine. Highs will top off around 70 degrees or in the lower 70s. All this wind has kicked up a lot of allergens as well, so you may be sniffly or sneezy today into the weekend.

Weekend

The weather this weekend looks just perfect with rampant sunshine. Winds will be light. Look for highs in the mid-70s on Saturday and upper-70s on Sunday. Morning lows will be in the 40s and 50s Saturday and Sunday, coolest inland, warmest in the city and near the coast. Officially, our coolest reading of the season was 50° back on October 17th, so we’ll see if we can match or beat that this weekend.

Trick or treating

Look for temperatures around 71° to 75° at 6 PM and 66° to 70° at 8 PM on Sunday evening. It should be clear and calm.

Astros in Atlanta

Obviously we have other important business to attend to this weekend with the Astros in Atlanta today, tomorrow, and Sunday. All 3 games should be playable. Showers will end around sunset in Atlanta this evening, with clouds and temperatures around 50° for most of the game. Winds will be out of the southeast (blowing in from right field) around 5 to 15 mph. Game 4 on Saturday should again see any showers ending. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s, with a light to moderate breeze from right to left field. Sunday looks fine, with gametime temperatures in the upper-50s, falling into the mid-50s and light northwest winds (blowing out to center field). Go ‘Stros!

Next week

Monday and Tuesday look to be very nice, though they will warm up and turn just slightly more humid. Look for highs near 80° and morning lows in the 50s and 60s. Our next front will attempt to make it here later next week.

This one could come with even slightly cooler air than what we’ll see this weekend, but specific details on the exact timing and strength of the cool air remain a little fuzzy. Check back with us Monday for the latest.

Galaxy Frights, Presented by Reliant

Looking for some tricks and treats this weekend? Check out Galaxy Frights, Presented by Reliant, at Space Center Houston! You can hear from astronauts on the scariest parts of space exploration, become a mad scientist in the Pop-Up Science Labs, experience a great light display, navigate through a spooky maze and, of course, do some trick or treating! More here: https://spacecenter.org/galaxy-frights/

The upcoming weekend will offer up a mixed bag of weather, featuring sun, clouds, some shower chances, and plenty of warmth and humidity. None of this should scare you away from whatever you were planning to do this weekend, though it will be warm! We still have a cold front in sight but not until midweek next week. That may possibly mean the end of “Second Summer” here in Texas.

Friday

We have another round of dense fog in spots this morning, particularly outside Grand Parkway. Places like Sugar Land, Katy, and areas west or south of there toward Wharton or Lake Jackson, as well as east of Houston in Liberty County and toward Beaumont are all seeing visibilities under a half mile as of 6:45 AM.

That fog will dissipate over the next 2 to 3 hours, and today looks fairly similar to yesterday. Expect a mix of clouds and sun and temperatures generally in the 80s. An few showers can’t be ruled out, but rain would be the exception, not the rule.

Saturday and Sunday

As Eric noted yesterday, both weekend days will carry a chance of showers or a thunderstorm. Expect any showers to be fairly short-lived and really not too big a deal. Based on today’s model data, I think Saturday may have a slightly higher overall chance for rain than Sunday. Outside of that, just a mix of sun and clouds with warm, humid conditions. Winds should be generally light on Saturday and then a bit gusty on Sunday. Expect highs in the 80s and lows in the upper-60s or 70s.

Monday and Tuesday

Look for rain chances to ease back a little here, as we end up with continued warm onshore flow ahead of a cold front that will stay to our north but an atmosphere without much to set storms off. Highs will be in the 80s and lows in the 70s. Winds may begin to pick up a bit again on Tuesday.

Midweek and beyond

The cold front we’ve been discussing is still on track to arrive on Wednesday. Models have been in disagreement on how robust the storm chances will be with this front, but suffice to say there will be at least a decent chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday. We should know more about this on Monday. Behind the front, look for refreshing air with lower humidity and gusty offshore winds. That should set up a very nice back half of next week.

You can see from the chart above of European ensemble forecast low temperatures over the next 2 weeks that there is a rather mixed signal after next week’s front. Some ensemble members warm us back up, while others keep us cool. The overall weather pattern across North America may be shifting a bit to allow more frequent cold fronts into Texas. This should perhaps allow us to shift out of this “Second Summer” business and into true autumn. As Eric noted yesterday, the timing of this first front probably means a mild Halloween this year, but there is still ample uncertainty. Again, look for more on this on Monday. Have a great weekend!