Matt Lanza

It was officially 80 degrees yesterday in Houston. We fell one degree shy of the record high at both Bush & Hobby on Thursday. Today will not be a repeat of that, not by a longshot.

Today

It’s starting off in the 50s and upper-40s this morning, and honestly, temperatures may not go very far from these values today.

Today is going to be one of those chilly, raw, damp winter days here in Houston with off and on showers or light rain, a lot of clouds, and a bit of a breeze.

We could use a little rain, so hopefully we can snag a couple tenths of an inch here or there through the day. Look for showers to diminish tonight, with partial clearing and lows generally in the 40s, though a few spots up north could drop into the upper-30s.

Weekend

Tomorrow will start similarly kind of gray. We should hopefully see breaks in the clouds during the afternoon. And we’ll see complete clearing once another cold front sweeps in Saturday afternoon or evening. Ahead of that front, look for highs in the 60s tomorrow. A chilly night is on tap for Saturday night with lows dropping into the 30s and 40s. Sunday looks spectacular. Expect a lot of sunshine, high temperatures in the 60s, and light to moderate winds.

Monday through Wednesday

Onshore flow will kick back in late Sunday, so Monday morning will not start off nearly as chilly as Sunday morning. Look for morning temps in the 50s, with a few upper-40s scattered about. Clouds will be with us on Monday as well. Despite the clouds, temperatures will surge to near 70 degrees.

The forecast begins to fall off the rails Tuesday with some changes since yesterday. A cold front is projected to get close to Houston by Tuesday afternoon. Models differ dramatically on the timing and orientation of the front through Wednesday and even Thursday, with the GFS model stalling it in our neighborhood and the European model suggesting it stalls well offshore. A map of forecast dewpoints for Wednesday shows this well.

This obviously has implications on everything from temperatures to cloud cover to fog potential to shower chances for next Tuesday and Wednesday. If the front clears, expect highs in the 60s or 50s Tuesday and Wednesday, with lows in the 40s Wednesday. If the front does not clear, expect highs in the 70s, perhaps well into the 70s and lows in the 60s, along with fog at the coast or even into the city. Normally, I’d say the cooler outcome is probably correct, but the GFS model tends to have a bias where it’s too fast with fronts pushing offshore so seeing it be opposite of that gives me a little pause. At the same time, models tend to struggle with the type of cold air masses we are expecting in our region by midweek next week, bringing them in too slowly. So the forecaster’s conundrum is in place next week, and either outcome seems perfectly reasonable. We’ll have a good bit more clarity on Monday.

Late next week

The forecast really goes off the rails later next week. All we can tell you at this point is to expect unsettled weather and potentially the coldest weather of winter. Models have taken a bit of a dramatic step colder since yesterday for next weekend, with most reliable model guidance indicating a freeze, if not a hard freeze will be possible focused on Saturday or Sunday. Whether or not that actually happens will depend on how the potential for rain or wintry precipitation exactly plays out next Friday and Saturday. I think Eric’s 20 percent call on snow risk is still reasonable, though I think I might unfortunately call it “snow OR ice” right now. I wish we could be less vague, but this period has been in flux for several days. Either way, we believe you will want to continue to monitor the forecast for the end of next week and weekend in the coming days and be ready to implement your cold weather preparations later next week. It’s been a minute since we last saw 20s in Houston in February, last occurring back in 2014. A reminder that, although rare in recent years, it can absolutely still get quite cold this late in our winter. Much more to come on this.

Good morning, and it’s a cool one across the region. Temperatures this morning ranged from the 30s north of Houston to the lower and middle 40s in the city to the low to mid-50s at the coast.

That cool weather will be departing later today and tonight — temporarily.

Today

We are already seeing broad onshore flow begin to resume at the coast, with low clouds moving into Galveston and southeast Harris Counties and humidity inching upward. That will be the trend today. Expect sunshine with some periods of clouds at times, perhaps becoming a bit more noticeable later today. We should manage the low-60s or a touch warmer in spots for highs.

Tonight & Saturday

Clouds become more established tonight, and we could see some light rain or drizzle in spots, in addition to some patchy fog late tonight at the coast. Temperatures won’t go very far tonight, and in fact they may rise out of the mid-50s toward daybreak across the region. We’ll end up in the upper-60s to low-70s tomorrow despite a good bit of cloud cover.

Our next cold front will approach the region late tomorrow. Expect showers to accompany it, but we are unlikely to see any sort of significant rain from this. It’s also entirely possible that your neighborhood sees no rain at all.

The current official forecast calls for no one seeing more than a tenth of an inch of rain. We think that’s reasonable, as this front will mostly just serve to usher in cooler, drier air and gusty winds for Sunday. Speaking of…

Sunday

On Sunday, you’ll definitely know that a cold front has moved through. It will be breezy to windy and cooler. Sunday’s temperatures will warm from the low-50s in the morning to the mid-60s, give or take in the afternoon. Winds will be blustery out of the north at 15 to 20 mph inland, gusting to perhaps 25 mph or so over the water. The better news is that it looks bright and sunny for Sunday!

Monday & Tuesday

More sunshine is expected on Monday. It will be a cool morning, with lows in the 30s and 40s, similar to today and yesterday. Afternoon highs will get up into the 50s or lower 60s. Tuesday looks very similar to Monday with sunshine and temperatures about the same in the morning but perhaps a few degrees warmer in the afternoon.

Later next week

We should see a warming trend and return to onshore flow on Wednesday and Thursday. Clouds return, as do some fog and rain chances. But our next cold front is slated to arrive Friday, which should bring some widespread rain and then cooler, drier weather for the weekend. More on this one Monday!

It’s been a gloomy few days here in the Houston area, between overcast skies or fog or showers or drizzle. The bad news is that it continues somewhat today, but the good news is that the end is coming for tomorrow. It won’t be a brilliant, totally sunny week, but it will be a lot nicer than what we’ve had recently.

Today

We have the clouds this morning, but there is definitely less fog around than in some other recent days. Tough to find any location, even at the coast, with less than 5 miles of visibility this morning.

So that’s a good start. There are some showers around this morning already, none of which are particularly heavy, but expect sort of a dreary start to the day, with low clouds and light rain, heavy drizzle, mist, or a shower. A narrow band of slightly heavier showers may try to roll in with the cold front itself, late this morning northwest of Houston and around midday in Houston itself. The front should get to the coast by late afternoon.

You’ll know when the front passes by a wind shift and about a 5 to 10 degree temperature drop. We’ll reach the low-70s north and west of Houston before the front and the mid to upper-70s south and east of Houston. So the change behind today’s won’t be too dramatic initially.

Where you’ll really notice the change will be tonight, as temperatures drop into the upper-40s to mid-50s for low temperatures by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday

Tomorrow won’t be perfectly sunny, but it will surely be a bit nicer than it has been. Look for a mix of sun and high clouds tomorrow, with high temperatures pushing back close to 70 degrees or a touch warmer.

Wednesday

A second cold front, this one a bit stronger, will push across the region on Wednesday morning. It will probably be a dry front, however. Look for a breezy day, with gusts of 15 to 20 mph out of the north. It will be sunny, but there will be a good deal of high cloud cover likely around at times to dim the sun. This should keep us in the mid to upper-60s for highs, after starting the day in the low to mid-50s.

Thursday & Friday

Expect more high clouds on Thursday, along with some sunshine. Friday may see the high clouds disappear, and it will likely start off sunny before some lower clouds roll in later in the day as onshore flow returns. Low temperatures for Thursday and Friday morning will likely average in the low 40s, though it will probably be in the upper-30s north and maybe upper-40s southeast of the city along the coast. For the daytime, expect cool upper-50s to low-60s on Thursday, followed up by mid-60s on Friday.

Weekend

It’s a bit early to say too much about this coming weekend, but it appears somewhat similar to this past weekend, with a good deal of low clouds, perhaps some patchy fog, and at least some shower chances, albeit low ones right now. We may see a cold front swing through the area by Sunday morning or afternoon, however, which could clear us out a bit and yield a nicer Sunday. Temperatures will be warm, with 70s for highs and 50s or 60s for lows. We should be back in the 40s on Monday morning behind the front, however.

Good morning, and happy Friday. It’s a cool start to the day today, as we’re in the wake of a cold front that moved through last evening. We’ll have a round of gusty winds today before things settle down for the weekend.

Today & tonight

Today is starting off calm enough with clear skies, cool temperatures, and generally light winds. The clear skies and generally cool temperatures will stay with us today, with highs in the 50s. But the wind? That will begin to howl in just a few hours. We expect wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph area wide today, with some higher gusts possible in northern stretches of the region.

A wind advisory is posted for late morning and early to mid-afternoon. With high winds and low humidity, it’s a higher than usual brush/grass fire danger day today. Relative humidity could drop below 20 percent at times, a very dry day.

Winds will quickly settle down around and just after sunset, and they should be back to relatively calm conditions tonight, with lows near freezing north and west of Houston.

Look for 30s elsewhere, with near 40 at the coast, a chilly night.

Saturday through Monday

After today, fair, quiet weather will be the story through Monday. Look for sunny conditions with just a few clouds on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will slowly warm through the period, topping off in the upper-50s on Saturday, low-60s on Sunday, and mid-60s on Monday. Morning lows will stay cool, with 30s to near 40° on Sunday morning and mostly 40s on Monday morning. Winds will stay light but could pick up a bit on Monday afternoon as onshore flow redevelops.

Tuesday and beyond

A pretty messy weather pattern is expected Tuesday through Thursday or even Friday before a cold front finally clears everything out. Onshore flow will transport really humid air back into the region Tuesday and Wednesday, likely leading to scattered showers. The problem in this period is that details around the forecast continue to fluctuate both in terms of how much rain we see and where it falls. We know that the potential will exist for heavy rain and at least some thunderstorms. But we don’t know if it’s more a story for our area, farther north toward Shreveport, LA, or for all of eastern Texas and western Louisiana. We will have a full update on this for you Sunday or (more likely) Monday.