We again want to express our best wishes and thoughts for so many of our readers, Houstonians, and Texans who are outright suffering tonight because of the combination of a true “tail event” and who knows what else happened with the power grid (which I sincerely hope is transparently communicated to Texans in the days and weeks ahead). Please, if you’re one of the fortunate ones tonight, check on anyone you know that may not be so fortunate.
That said, we are a weather blog first and foremost and we want to let you know about a couple things: How tonight’s forecast is tracking and an update on Wednesday’s storm.
How cold tonight?
We’ve been asking this question for days when it was apparent that tonight would be the main event for cold. So, we have a lot of models and data and whatnot, but let’s actually compare to data from the most recent comparable event: December 1989. On December 23 and December 24, 1989, Houston (Bush Airport) hit 7° and 11° respectively, close analogs to what we believe tonight’s low temperature will be. One way to check on how things are going is to track the temperature at Bush Airport hour by hour and compare to the hourly observations in those events, as well as the NWS point forecast from just before 8 PM this evening.
Hourly Temperatures at IAH Airport December 1989 vs. February 2021
12/23/1989
12/24/1989
2/15/2021
NWS Point Forecast
6:00 PM
19
24
21
21
7:00 PM
18
19
20
20
8:00 PM
16
16
19
17
9:00 PM
16
15
18
15
10:00 PM
15
14
14
11:00 PM
14
14
13
12:00 AM
13
12
12
1:00 AM
12
11
11
2:00 AM
11
12
11
3:00 AM
10
11
10
4:00 AM
10
11
9
5:00 AM
9
11
8
6:00 AM
7
11
8
7:00 AM
7
12
9
8:00 AM
8
15
12
9:00 AM
10
22
15
10:00 AM
14
27
18
Through 9 PM at least, we are coming up short of both nights from 1989 as well as the current forecast. All that said, it’s very early still, relatively speaking, and temperatures on nights like this can easily drop like a rock under the right conditions. So don’t read too much into what you see here just yet, but I felt this would be an interesting way of looking at things.
(Editor’s note: Replace “IAH” in that link’s URL with whatever airport code you desire, if you’d like to track conditions at that location. Some local ideas? GLS for Galveston, HOU for Hobby, EFD for Ellington Field, LVJ for Pearland, SGR for Sugar Land, TME for the west side of Katy, DWH for Tomball, and CXO for Conroe. You must keep the “K” before those three letters though!)
Wednesday’s Storm
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Wednesday’s storm now.
A Winter Storm Warning has been posted for Wednesday’s storm for the counties shaded in pink, essentially from the City of Houston north and west. (NOAA)
Here’s what I can tell you confidently tonight:
The precipitation will fall as either plain rain or freezing rain. Sleet or snow are unlikely in our area.
Precipitation should break out around Midnight, give or take a few hours Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Exactly who sees freezing rain vs. plain rain? That’s the forecast challenge right now, as shallow, dense cold air is not always easy to dislodge. If we look at the HRRR model forecast for tomorrow evening at midnight, you can see roughly where it predicts the freezing line to be located.
The HRRR model suggests that temperatures across most of the northern half of the Houston area will be below freezing when rain begins tomorrow night. (Weather Bell)
This is essentially just north of US-59 to Houston and east along or just south of I-10 to Port Arthur. The European model and NAM model are slightly warmer than this, and the GFS model is very similar to the HRRR. All models show temperatures getting above freezing by mid-morning or so Wednesday across the entire region. Expect at least a few hours of freezing rain in Houston, with a longer duration as you go north. Total icing may be as much as a glaze to a tenth of an inch across Harris County, with higher amounts possible as you go north into northern Liberty and Montgomery Counties and even more from Walker County northward. For most of us this shouldn’t be a “power outage” issue, but rather a travel one. Expect travel to become difficult to impossible north of I-10 or US-59 after midnight Tuesday night, but we will likely see improvement from south to north after sunrise.
Things could change, but that’s what it looks like right now. We want you to be aware and be smart about this next storm, so that’s why we have this here. Eric will have more for you in the morning. But right now, just focus on getting through tonight. Our thoughts are with you. Please stay safe.
First off, our sympathies are with what we assume are large numbers of our readership without power today. We hope you get it restored soon, but the news has not exactly been great today.
But here is some relatively good news to get you started. As of this writing, both Bush and Hobby Airports are up to 22 degrees. With the sun out, we might be able to squeeze another couple degrees out of things today. That sun is also helping to melt some of the snow and ice on area roadways.
Crews are working on clearing roadways but these extreme temperatures will continue so slick conditions will continue as well. pic.twitter.com/BRSnHibUZK
While those roads are still difficult to impossible to traverse, we may restore a little road functionality today. However, after sunset and with temps plunging again tonight, any slush that is leftover on area roads (particularly on side streets in Houston and various area subdivisions) will refreeze into solid ice, making travel tonight virtually impossible, possibly even worse than this morning.
One other safety reminder: If area retention ponds or lakes in subdivisions begin to freeze over, while it will look neat, it will be exceptionallydangerous to attempt to walk on. Simply put: Admire from afar, and please make sure children stay away from them.
Our morning low at both Bush and Hobby was 17 degrees, which is the coldest we’ve registered since the December 1989 cold blast. And we may (probably) dip below that before midnight.
We’re also seeing a true rarity in Southeast Texas: Lake effect flurries and clouds.
Lake effect clouds, flurries, and widespread snowpack dominate the satellite picture over Texas today, a true rarity. (Weathernerds.org)
Two distinct plumes are coming off Lake Livingston and Lake Sam Rayburn this afternoon and even Lake Conroe if you squint. You can also see a plume of “bay effect” clouds coming out of Galveston Bay and into the Gulf. This is why even with the sun out, it may have felt like you were living in a snow globe this morning.
Tonight
So how cold will it get tonight? Clear skies, diminishing winds, and a fresh layer of snow is a recipe for what we call “ideal radiational cooling.” Reliable model guidance tonight ranges from 10 to 17 degrees at IAH/Bush, and in an ideal radiational cooling situation like this, typically you’d subtract a couple more off that.
Record and perhaps all-time record challenging cold is likely tonight. (Weather Bell)
Add in that the models have generally been underdoing the intensity of the cold, and you have a forecast map like the one above from the National Weather Service. There may be some chance that we fall short of these numbers, but I would not be betting on that, and most of the area should expect lows of 5 to 15 degrees, coldest northwest, warmest southeast. Houston’s all-time record of 5° from 1930 is probably safe, but not by much and with little room for error. Either way, tonight promises to be a once in a generation type cold that will unfortunately cause a lot of damage to infrastructure, pipes, etc. We wish our readers the best.
Tuesday and beyond
Not much has changed in terms of what to expect the next couple days. More sunshine tomorrow should help further melt snow and ice on roads and most areas south of I-10 should get above freezing. North of I-10 is another matter, which plays into Wednesday’s outcome. We will continue to be honest that there is still a lot of uncertainty as to how much cold air will remain locked in over the area. Gulf air and onshore flow doesn’t typically have to compete with a snowpack here, so it creates a difficult forecast. What I think we can say for Houston: Most of the metro area should eventually see plain rain on Wednesday, with temperatures above freezing. Based on modeling, we are growing concerned about a very serious ice storm north of about Conroe up to just south of Dallas, but details will likely still be elusive until tomorrow.
With Eric still powerless, I’ll have one final brief update for you once more this around 8:30 or 9 PM. Stay safe, and try to stay warm everyone.
Good afternoon everyone. I’ve been watching the models and observations all day, and we look to continue walking a fine line between ice, an even mix of ice, sleet, and snow, and a bigger snowstorm in the Houston area. Not a whole lot has changed from Eric’s detailed morning post, but let’s freshen up the forecast a bit based on what we’re seeing right now.
Now
As of 4PM, here is a map of where temperatures are currently below freezing (locations above freezing not shown).
Below freezing temperatures are creeping south and east into the Houston area. Icing will commence soon on many area roadways. (NOAA)
So, if we roughly overlay that freezing line on radar, you can see where the risk of ice is at the moment I am writing this.
Areas north of I-10 and west of US-59 are at risk for icing as of 4 PM Sunday. This will worsen over the next few hours. (RadarScope)
Basically anywhere along and west of US-59 and north of I-10 is at risk for icing on roadways as of now and worsening over the next 2-3 hours.
Through Midnight
Over the next few hours, watch for rain, freezing rain, and freezing drizzle to overspread most of the region. Temps will continue to glacially drop off slowly, eventually putting everywhere but probably the immediate coast below 32° by midnight. Ice accumulation should not be significant in terms of weighing down trees and power lines this evening, but you’ll begin to notice a glaze on most outdoor surfaces, and travel will become hazardous to impossible across the entire region.
Midnight to 7 AM Monday
Two things will happen after midnight: Colder air will speed up its arrival in the area and the precipitation should become more organized and heavier. Our forecast confidence begins to drop off here, but theoretically, this should mean that freezing rain will transition more to sleet and eventually snow. That transition will take place from northwest to southeast and where the precipitation falls heaviest.
The HRRR model forecast of precipitation at 4 AM shows freezing rain and sleet transitioning to sleet and snow across the region. This is just one of several possibilities for how tonight may unfold. (Weather Bell)
This is when we will probably start seeing and hearing reports of heavy sleet and even heavy snow in parts of the area. I’ll be honest, as a Northeast native, what is being depicted on some of the models is the potential for bonafide, real deal heavy snow and/or sleet, particularly north and west of Houston (think far NW Harris County, Montgomery County, College Station, Huntsville), but perhaps in the city or even some places east of the city too. We’re talking potential of 1-2″ per hour snow rates if we flip over. If the warm layer a couple thousand feet up holds, then heavy sleet will the story, and we’ll see 1 to 2 inches total of “cement” on roads and surfaces.
Quick note and reminder: If we end up with sleet or sleet/snow accumulation and you have to shovel or clear surfaces, please take it slow and take it easy. There is a known link between shoveling snow/sleet and heart attack risks, to the point where hospitals up north often staff up for that very reason ahead of storms.
7 AM to Noon Monday
Precipitation should begin to wind down from west to east before Noon on Monday. Most places will end as a period of snow or flurries.
When all is said and done, expect 1-3″ of snow, more northwest, less southeast. Expect a tenth to a quarter inch of ice, more southeast, less northwest. Higher amounts are possible in either case.
Monday afternoon
Despite the precip ending, conditions won’t improve much. It’ll remain quite cold and any chance of sunshine will probably hold off til late day or Tuesday. Eric will update you on that chance in the morning. Either way, we won’t be getting above freezing on Monday, so whatever falls is going to stay in place through the day and into Monday night.
Monday night/Tuesday morning.
No big changes to the forecast for Monday night and Tuesday morning. It will be cold, likely damaging cold. Please make sure you’ve finalized all preps for pipes and plants by now, and look out for pets and neighbors.
Tuesday morning low temperatures are mostly unchanged from prior forecasts and still likely to challenge records and perhaps some all-time records as well. (NOAA via Weather Bell)
There’s still a tad bit of uncertainty on exactly how cold we get, contingent on how many clouds remain, how much snow falls vs. sleet/ice, and how windy it is. But either way, a damaging, destructive, probably historic freeze is on the way Tuesday morning.
Tuesday afternoon and beyond
Look for slowly rising temperatures Tuesday, probably close to freezing from I-10 south and just shy of it north of there. We should have sunshine, and that will allow for some melting to occur, but there’s a chance most roads remain sloppy to impassable most of Tuesday too.
And then beyond Tuesday, I don’t want to speculate too much still, but it does look like Wednesday’s storm will be a mess for northern fringes of the area. The potential exists for a serious ice storm north of Houston (probably plain rain in most of the Houston metro itself). Coastal locations may even make a run at 50+ degrees on Wednesday. Between storm track issues and potential snowpack issues (keeping temperatures cold), there is a lot we don’t know about Wednesday. Look for an update by about 5:30 in the morning from Eric.
With the deep freeze on the way to Houston, Eric thought it would be a good idea to take a look at some previous significant cold in Houston, so we can place this outbreak in historical context. As Space City Weather’s unofficial history guru, I’ve taken on the challenge!
Quick forecast update
Eric’s morning post does a nice job discussing what we know and expect over the coming days. Not a whole lot has changed, though I think three things stand out.
1.) First, there is a real chance that there could be some freezing drizzle or light freezing rain overnight tonight and Sunday morning. Please check with us or other local outlets if you are planning to travel anywhere tomorrow morning.
2.) Second, the start time of Sunday evening’s precipitation has sped up a bit, and we may see rain or freezing rain or sleet begin as early as 3 or 4 PM on Sunday.
3.) It seems colder air may push in here a little faster on Sunday night and Monday morning. This is both good and bad. It’s bad in the sense that we’re likely to endure a longer stretch of temperatures in the mid-20s or colder. It’s good, however, in the sense that this might lead to more sleet (or snow) and less freezing rain. Forecasting precipitation types is extremely challenging, as Eric noted this morning, so I expect more curve balls to be thrown our way between now and tomorrow evening, but at least this afternoon, it looks like sleet may be the more common precipitation type we see tomorrow night. We’ll have more for you in the morning.
February 2021
So, to begin our trip through history, let’s set the table with the current cold outbreak.
Current coldest forecast temperature: 10° on Tuesday 2/16 Nights forecast at or below freezing: Five
The current official NWS forecast low for Houston on Tuesday morning (at IAH Airport) is 10 degrees, which would rank as a tie for Houston’s 5th coldest morning all-time (back to 1889). Since official records have been kept at Bush Airport (1969), this would rank as the second coldest, with only December 23, 1989 being colder (7 degrees).
Some may try to talk down this cold outbreak because of its less impressive duration than, say, 1989 which saw three of Houston’s 25 coldest mornings on record. However, the current Monday through Friday forecast (as of Saturday afternoon) shows an average temperature of 28.5 degrees for the 5 day period. This would rank as Houston’s 12th coldest 5 day stretch on record. If that does verify, it will be our coldest 5 day stretch of weather since 1983. So this certainly qualifies as an upper echelon, if not historic cold snap.
So let’s look back at some other memorable Houston cold snaps through the years.
January 2018
Coldest temperature: 19° on 1/17 Nights at or below freezing: 10, split up over 20 days
We’ve gotten a few comments from folks questioning how this upcoming cold could be classified as “coldest in years” when we just had cold like this in January 2018. Well, the reality is that January 2018, while impressive, was split up over 3 weeks and came with comparatively mild daytime highs.
January 2018 had its share of cold, including our coldest morning since 1996, but we weren’t able to string together a stretch quite like this week. (NOAA)
We did hit 19 degrees, which at that time was our coldest low temperature since 1996. We managed to reach the upper 30s on both days, which isn’t overly impressive. That event also came with snow, sleet, and ice. Impressive, but probably not historic.
February 2011
Coldest temperature: 21° on 2/2 Nights at or below freezing: 12 over 2 weeks
Another one we hear about is 2011. I remember February 2011 vividly because I moved to Houston for a time that month and arrived at the end of January. Quite the welcome. Houston officially bottomed out at 21 degrees on February 2nd. We registered 5 straight days with lows in the 20s from February 1-5 and 4 days from February 9-12. There was also an ice storm of sorts on the 4th. Eric wrote about it at the Houston Chronicle. I actually remember forecasting this and it being a really good lesson in the challenges of forecasting winter weather in the South.
While this was not really a record-setting event in Houston, other parts of Texas saw some impressive records. El Paso’s coldest February day on record was February 3, 2011. Dallas was plagued with cold and wintry weather as well, marring the 2011 Super Bowl.
December 1989
Coldest temperature: 7° on 12/23 Nights at or below freezing: 14 over 2-3 weeks
In pantheon of modern Houston cold snaps, December 1989 is front and center.
The front page of the Houston Chronicle from December 23, 1989, the day after Houston officially recorded 1.7″ of snow and the day that Houston recorded the coldest December day on record. (Houston Chronicle)
Six record low temperatures still stand from 1989.
December 12: 25°
December 13: 19°
December 16: 19°
December 22: 13°
December 23: 7°
December 24: 11°
December of 1989 was Houston’s coldest December on record back to the 1880s. Between crop losses and other damage, the cold of December 1989 was estimated at the time to cause $300 to $500 million in damage (up to $1 billion in 2021 dollars) in Southeast and Coastal Texas, according to NOAA’s December 1989 StormData publication. This event merits a whole post on its own, which we’ll hopefully one day get to!
December 1983
Coldest temperature: 11° on 12/25 Nights at or below freezing: 12, including 11 in a row to close the month.
The December 1983 cold wave was another hall of fame event for Houston. We closed the month with 11 straight mornings below freezing, including four full days that failed to crack above 32 degrees.
The Christmas morning Houston Chronicle featured pictures of fountains turned into ice sculptures in Houston. (Houston Chronicle)
The 1983 cold snap caused an estimated $50 to $100 million in damage in Texas at the time (up to about $250 million today). December 1983 is Houston’s second coldest December behind 1989. December 1983 was to Dallas what December 1989 was to Houston, leading to their coldest December on record.
January 1978
Coldest temperature: 21° on 1/20 Nights at or below freezing: 20 (!) over the course of the month
The January 1978 cold snap doesn’t have much intensity on any single day, but it makes up for that in terms of duration, which ultimately led to 1978 being our coldest January (and coldest month) on record.
Frequent fronts ushered in cold, Arctic air through most of January 1978, which led to a low to moderate intensity, but sustained cold air outbreak over Houston. (NOAA)
The 1970s had some pretty amazing winters across the United States, and for Houston this was almost certainly the peak. Although, 1973 saw four days of snow in Houston between January and February.
January-February 1951
Coldest temperature: 14° on 2/2 Nights at or below freezing: 6 in a row
January 1951 started off quite mild with 14 days in the 70s. The switch flipped on January 28, when temperatures dropped 40, and then January 29 when they kept dropping to 24 degrees. We then had four straight days below freezing all day long. The January 29-February 3 period remains Houston’s coldest stretch of 6 days on record, averaging 26.3 degrees.
January 30, 1951 front page of the Houston Chronicle, one of several days that saw the region dealing with disruption and damage due to ice and excessive cold. (Houston Chronicle)
In addition to the cold, what is likely the worst ice storm in city history led to serious damage and disruption. Almost an inch and a half of precipitation fell during the cold snap. Another event likely worthy of its own post.
January 1940
Coldest temperature: 10° on 1/19 Nights at or below freezing: 11 in a row
The 1940 cold snap came with snow on January 22nd, with up to 3 inches reported from Houston into southern Louisiana and more elsewhere in the states. Only twice has Houston seen 11 straight days of low temperatures at or below freezing: January 1983 and January 1940. The 1940 cold is notable for both intensity and duration.
January 1930
Coldest temperature: 5° on 1/18 Nights at or below freezing: 8, coming in two 4-day waves
January 18, 1930 is Houston’s coldest morning on record, with a low of 5 degrees above zero. The cold came in two punches, this first strong one, followed by a second one a couple days later in which we bottomed out at 15 degrees on the 22nd.
The January 18, 1930 Houston Chronicle trumpeting the news of Houston’s coldest recorded day. (Houston Chronicle)
Five days after hitting 15 degrees, we were back up near 70, so further proof it won’t stay cold forever!
February 1899
Coldest temperature: 6° on 2/12 and 2/13 Nights at or below freezing: 9 in a row
The February 1899 cold snap covered most of the eastern half of the United States, and it could be deemed the granddaddy of them all in the South. Several records from that event still stand today, including the coldest on record for Amarillo (-16°), Dallas (-8°), Galveston (8°), and the Texas all-time record (Tulia was -23°, a record shared with Seminole in 1933). In addition to Texas, state records still stand or are shared today from this cold snap in Nebraska, Ohio, Louisiana, and Florida.
The February 13, 1899 edition of the Houston Post described the cold snap thusly:
“When a younger friend approaches him now and suggests to him, with a degree of profanity based on the length of time he has been exposed to the chilling, biting, nipping North wind, that ‘it’s pretty cold,’ the oldest inhabitant cannot yawn, draw closer to the welcome fire, and say, with an air of conscious superiority, ‘Yes, but away back in ’73 there was a norther that–.’ He has no recourse but to moodily assent, put a few more coals in the blazing grate and reflect on what has been, what might have been and what may be. And all this makes him sad, very, very sad.”
February 1899 is front and center in the pantheon of cold as well.
February 1895
Coldest temperature: 10° on 2/8 Nights at or below freezing: 12 over the course of 2 weeks
February 1895 was a memorable cold snap, with 4 daily records still standing today. But what set 1895 apart for Houston was our greatest snowstorm of 20 inches, which we conveniently wrote about back in 2017!
The final word
So, will 2021 join these memorable cold snaps? Probably. But ultimately, whether it really can join the ranks of a 1989 or 1983 or 1899 will depend on just how cold it gets Tuesday morning.
