Matt Lanza

Cooling late spring in Houston this weekend before outstanding April weather next week

Some storms sped through northern parts of the metro area yesterday evening, delivering a few quarter-size hail reports and some locally heavy rain in northern Harris and Montgomery Counties.

We’ve got a very unseasonably cool air mass trying to make inroads to Texas right now, so that’s a good recipe for hail. And in fact, today there is a chance of some additional storms with potential hail as well, primarily north of Houston.

Today

Our incoming cold front will slowly drop south across Texas today. A weak system in the upper atmosphere will slide west to east across the state as well. As the front drops in, this should allow showers and storms to break out through the day. The best chance of rain will be north of I-10 once again today. Areas along Spring Creek saw upwards of one inch of rainfall yesterday, so any storms will be capable of dropping some locally heavy rain this afternoon as well.

Friday’s forecast rain chances from the Houston National Weather Service office show the best chances north of Houston, closer to the front. Some storms up north will be capable of producing hail. (NWS Houston)

Those that don’t see storms today will just see clouds and a few showers. It will be fairly warm and humid today as well, with highs reaching into the mid-70s.

Tonight

While this will be a fairly strong cold front for April, it won’t pack a ton of punch as it moves through. I’d expect a narrow line of showers and perhaps some storms along the front to drop through the region from northwest to southeast after 6 to 8 PM this evening, reaching the coast by midnight or so. Expect a gusty north wind to kick in once the front passes, with gusts of 15 to 20 mph possible; a bit stronger over the water. Temperatures will drop back into the 50s to near 60° over much of the area by morning.

Saturday & Sunday

For lack of a better word, tomorrow looks a bit dreary. Right now, forecast highs for Saturday are in the mid to upper-60s, but I suspect that with clouds locked in, cool air pouring south, and some lingering shower chances, we may struggle to reach 65° tomorrow afternoon in much of the area. If that does happen, it would be our coolest late April daytime high in seven years. There will be continued upper level “energy” overhead allowing us to keep mention of shower chances in for Saturday afternoon. Unlike Friday, the best odds of rain tomorrow will be south of I-10 and along the coast. Accumulations should be rather light overall, but it may be unpleasant at times south of Houston tomorrow afternoon.

On Sunday, expect a mix of clouds and some sun, less of a breeze, and continued cool temperatures. Look for morning lows in the 50s (perhaps some 40s north and west) and daytime highs again in the middle to upper-60s.

Next week

It sure looks nice for much of next week. Like, really, really nice. Goldilocks weather: Not too hot, not too cold. Expect a mix of sun and clouds most days. Through Wednesday, high temperatures will top off in the 70s after starting the day in the 50s (with even some 40s possible north of Houston).

The 5 day average temperature anomaly from the GEFS model from Sunday morning through Friday morning shows temperatures averaging 5 to 10 degrees below normal across Texas next week. (Weather Bell)

There should be a reinforcing cold front late Tuesday night or Wednesday that comes through with little fanfare but locks back in comfortable weather for the back half of next week. Warmer weather and increasing rain chances would follow suit Friday or Saturday.

Cool but just a little gray at times for Easter weekend

Easter weekend is upon us, and with many folks planning to take their gatherings outdoors this year, we want to try and pin this forecast down as precisely as possible for you to plan around. In a nutshell: We don’t expect any significant weather at all this weekend, and you should go forth with your plans unaltered due to weather. But there will be just enough of an annoying chance of some light showers later on Sunday.

Today

Skies will start off mainly clear today with ample sunshine. Look for that to continue with just a few high clouds passing through at times later today. It will be another very pleasant, temperate day, with highs in the 60s to perhaps near 70 degrees.

Saturday

Tomorrow won’t be the worst day ever, nor the best day. Look for a good deal of clouds sprinkled with breaks of sunshine. A weak disturbance could squeeze a little virga (rain that evaporates before reaching the ground) out in the afternoon, but for the most part I think Saturday will be fine for all our outdoor plans.

The forecast from the National Weather Service National Blend of Models shows about 80 to 90 percent coverage of clouds Saturday afternoon, meaning at times it will be mainly cloudy. (Pivotal Weather)

Temperatures will warm from the 40s or 50s in the morning to 60s in the afternoon, held down a couple degrees due to clouds. A few spots could break into the 70s with enough sunshine.

Easter Sunday

We will once again see a good deal of clouds and breaks of sun for Sunday. The forecast has become relatively tricky here, with another disturbance pivoting through and a little more moisture available than on Saturday. The odds of any one location seeing rain is fairly low. But I do believe some locations will see a shower on Sunday. So, the best advice we can offer right now is to go forth with your plans as scheduled, but you may feel some “spritzes” out there Sunday afternoon. By no means will it be enough to wash you out for the day, but it may be enough to be annoying in a few locations.

Temperatures on Sunday should start in the 50s and work their way to about 70 degrees or so. If it does rain in your neighborhood, temps could drop back into the 60s for a few hours.

Next week

We begin to turn the corner back toward warmer, more humid weather on Monday. Highs should top off in the 70s, with morning lows in the 50s once more. A shower is possible with a mix of sun and clouds.

By Tuesday, we’re starting the morning in the 60s and reaching well into the 70s, if not low-80s. Wednesday looks even warmer, with morning lows in the mid to upper-60s and highs in the mid-80s. We should see a typical spring pattern of morning clouds giving way to afternoon sunshine and a token 10 to 20 percent chance of a shower.

Even warmer weather looks possible later in the week, with maybe a weak front in there at some point between late week or early the following week.

Can we hit 90 degrees next week?

Last year, we hit 90 degrees for the first time on March 25th. In 2019, we did it on April 9th. Typically, we don’t reach 90 for the first time until May 7th (though since 1990, that date has moved up to May 1st). Yes, we could hit 90 degrees next week or weekend. As of right now, the European ensemble is projecting that the air mass over Texas by late next week or next weekend (Friday shown here) will be about 10 degrees or more warmer than normal.

The forecast of temperature anomalies over Texas next week is expected to be about 10 degrees or more above normal on Friday. Upper air temperatures are similarly warm, which means 90° could be attainable by late week (Pivotal Weather)

We start to see average high temperatures get close to 80 degrees next week, so it becomes simple math at that point. Given the dry soils and growing drought over most of Texas, this will not be a Herculean task. There are still some question marks Depending on your point of view, that’s wonderful or the worst news ever. Either way, it is what it is, and we’ll update you on things Monday!

Fabulous Friday before we go gray again this weekend

It’s another pleasantly cool morning in the Houston area, with morning lows in the 40s and 50s today. This weekend will present a mixed bag of weather, with a lovely start to Friday, followed by warmer, more humid, and drearier conditions heading into Saturday. A cold front Sunday will bring us a chance of rain and thunderstorms. We are growing more confident that a very robust cold front will slice through the area later next week, ushering some pretty cool temperatures for early April just ahead of Easter weekend.

Today

Look for outstanding weather today. Sunshine and blue skies to start, and we’ll watch for clouds to build in later today. We should see high temperatures approaching or exceeding 80 degrees this afternoon in many locations.

Saturday

Clouds will thicken up and begin to lower tonight as onshore flow ramps up behind a warm front. This should mean fog and drizzle overnight. So expect Saturday to start off a bit dreary in much of the area. We could see partial clearing Saturday afternoon, and as we do, a few showers may develop mainly north of I-10 in the afternoon. We will see highs likely in the 80s after morning lows in the 60s.

Sunday

A cold front will drop into the northern part of the area on Saturday night. Showers and a few thunderstorms may begin to develop out ahead of the front across the Houston area overnight and early Sunday. Weather models are still split on exactly how far offshore how fast this front gets on Sunday. Some hang the front back over Houston, while others push it offshore. It’s easy to see the model differences just by looking at the rain forecast on Sunday in our area from each of them

Euro: 0.5-2″
GFS: Trace-0.25″
NAM: Trace-0.25″
Canadian: 0.25-0.75″

Clearly the Euro & Canadian hold back the front, generating more rain, while the NAM & GFS are much more progressive, pushing most rain well offshore.

The NWS rainfall forecast sort of splits the difference with about a quarter-inch through Sunday evening. Some places will see little to no rain aside from Saturday’s drizzle. Other areas could see some heavier downpours on Sunday. (Weather Bell)

While there’s clearly a bit of uncertainty still, I would probably argue for splitting the difference right now: The best chance of showers should be south and east of Houston, while areas north and west see little to no rain on Sunday. I would say about a quarter-inch of rain on average. Higher amounts can’t be ruled out if the front stalls onshore, but at the same time, the rain will be sporadic enough that some places may see little to no rain at all.

Temperatures will also be tricky to pin down. Everyone should see highs somewhere in the 70s on Sunday. Morning lows, however, may range from the upper 50s northwest of Houston to upper 60s in the city and toward the coast.

Early Next Week

By Monday morning, even the Euro and Canadian models have pushed the front offshore, and the area should see a fairly nice day with highs in the 70s after morning lows in the 50s. Onshore flow kicks back into gear Tuesday with more clouds, a slight chance of drizzle or light rain, and high temperatures ramping back up into the 80s probably.

Big pre-Easter cold front

Weather models seem to be in pretty good agreement overall regarding later next week. Onshore flow really begins to ramp Tuesday night into Wednesday. A cold front will approach later Wednesday or early Thursday. This one has a little more muscle behind it than most recent fronts, so expect to see a pretty substantial drop in temperatures once it clears.

What we are confident in: A cold front with some showers, followed by much cooler, drier air sometime Wednesday or Thursday lingering into the weekend.

What we are not confident in: The exact timing of the front, how much rain, exactly how cool the air will be behind the front, the odds of a light freeze in northwestern parts of the area, and whether or not we can keep the pleasant weather going all the way to Easter Sunday.

Given the model data right now, once it clears our area, we’ll likely see something on the order of highs in the upper-60s with lows in the 40s for late next week. There are a number of European ensemble members even pushing lows into the 30s for Houston next weekend! It’s too soon to talk about a late season light freeze in northwest parts of the area, but it’s worth monitoring if you have things planted. Each model run this week has progressed a couple degrees colder with the air mass late next week, so our confidence in this has nudged up a little also.

A chart of forecast lows from the 51 different European ensemble members shows strong agreement in a much cooler air mass late next week with lows likely in the 40s, possibly even a little colder.

Can the nice weather keep going into Easter Sunday? Maybe. I think the smart money is on the air mass starting to warm up a bit by then with some added cloud cover, but at this point we don’t see a significant risk of rain at least. Eric will have the latest on this for you on Monday.

Spring break week for many to close out with more nice weather

Good morning! We are in store for a delightful weekend of weather here in Houston, so I want to touch on a couple items before we get into the forecast details: Hurricane season & drought.

Changes coming to the 2021 hurricane season

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) met this week, as they do each year to discuss hurricane names that should be retired, among other items. If you have not yet heard, some newsworthy items came out of that meeting.

First off, several storm names were retired. Since they didn’t meet due to the pandemic last year, both 2019 and 2020 were addressed this year. For 2019, the only retiree was Hurricane Dorian, which devastated the Bahamas in particular. Tropical Storm Imelda, which killed 6 and caused roughly $5 billion in damage as a storm many across Southeast Texas won’t soon forget was not retired. Imelda will appear again in 2025. For 2020, Hurricane Laura was retired. Hurricanes Eta and Iota, which both devastated Nicaragua were also retired. For those curious, Dexter will replace Dorian in 2025 and Leah will replace Laura in 2026.

In addition, the Greek alphabet was retired. No, really. The WMO agreed that if a season’s name list was exhausted, shifting to a list of Greek letters was too confusing. So they now have what amounts to an auxiliary list of storm names that will be utilized in the event we use all the names on the primary list for that season.

I believe that if one of those names is retired, it will just disappear and be replaced like any other season. Previously, they could not retire Greek letters.

Thoughts: Matt’s opinion here, but I’m not entirely surprised Imelda was not retired. That doesn’t necessarily make it right, as I feel Imelda coming sort of on the heels of Harvey makes it a special case for a highly populated, if small-ish area of impact. Claudette in 1979, which flooded Alvin terribly was never retired either. So there is certainly precedent, but again, if it were Matt’s decision, retiring Imelda would kind of be like having Harold Baines in the Baseball Hall of Fame. There’s a case one could make there, even if it is very, very borderline. As far as the Greek letters being canned? I like it a lot. I think this is absolutely the right decision, and it will create much less confusion and distraction, should we get there again.

Drought worsening

The Drought Monitor was updated yesterday, and although Wednesday’s rain is not included in this calculation, drought did worsen across both Texas as a whole and locally in the Houston area.

Move the slider left or right to see a comparison of Drought Monitor maps for Texas from last week and this week. Drought continues to encroach on the Houston area from all sides. (US Drought Monitor)

The only part of Texas not really seeing drought get worse is the El Paso area and far west, as drought is already pretty bad there. The Greater Houston area went from about 35 percent of the region in drought last week to almost 60 percent this week. NOAA’s outlook for the next few months suggests drought will maintain or worsen across Texas.

As we’ve noted, this is a story we will continue to follow.

Today & weekend

We will close out the week on a cool but sunny note. There are some high clouds that could drop in from the north today, but short of that, expect sunshine and 60s this afternoon with a bit less wind than yesterday. Saturday should be similar with mainly sunshine but at least some chance of high clouds at times. We’ll start in the 40s in most places tomorrow, warming into the 60s, with areas south and west of Houston pushing back near 70 degrees.

Our winds will shift onshore on Sunday, with warmer, more humid air beginning to gradually filter in off the Gulf. Look for morning lows in the 40s and low-50s and highs in the upper-60s to low-70s and a good bit of sunshine once again.

Next week

A pair of upper level systems will move into the region, with the first arriving later Monday and Tuesday and another later in the week. These will each help drive a cold front into the Houston area, along with a chance of showers and storms. As is often the case this time of year, there are questions as to how far offshore the fronts will get or if they (particularly the first one) will fall apart over us. Either way, look for a somewhat unsettled week next week with a couple days of rain chances and generally warm temperatures. We should see a final front push well off to our east and somewhat cooler weather arrive by later in the week or next weekend. We will have finer details for you on Monday.