Matt Lanza

Rainfall this afternoon was quite vigorous across the Houston area, with a few places seeing as much as an inch of rain in about 15 minutes’ time.

This has added up with the gauge at Spring Creek and SH 249 for instance already over 3 inches of rain today. For most areas, this has been manageable with just some minor street flooding.

The trouble tonight is that the front is going to approach and stall west of I-45 for a time. You can see this well on the HRRR model for example, which is showing the front (roughly the boundary between warmer and cooler colors here) stalled out over Harris County tonight and into tomorrow morning. This animation runs from 7 PM Wednesday to Noon Thursday.

In this time, repeated rounds of rainfall, some heavy, will impact areas primarily west of I-45 (until you get north of Conroe). Additional rainfall during this time on top of what has already fallen, will average about an inch or so east of Houston and 1 to 4 inches west of the city (presume about 1 to 3 inches in the city itself). There will likely be some pockets of higher amounts up to 5 or 6 inches or so west of Houston. Those higher amounts would be most likely in western Harris, western Montgomery, Grimes, Fort Bend, Wharton, or Waller Counties.

This could lead to some localized flooding, and for that reason, we are going to implement the Space City Weather Flood Scale at Stage 1 for tonight and Thursday.

We will go with a Stage 1 event for the western half of the area, which generally means mostly nuisance street flooding. But there will likely be rises on area creeks as well, particularly Willow Creek, upper Spring Creek, and upper Little Cypress Creek. So we will watch and escalate if necessary, but we think this will behave for the most part in our area. Still, please exercise caution, especially if you have to be out for whatever reason tonight and tomorrow morning. A Flash Flood Watch is posted for Houston and points west through tomorrow afternoon.

Rain should rapidly end from southwest to northeast across the region tomorrow afternoon and evening.

In addition to the rainfall, we did see a tornado warning at one point for Harris and Fort Bend Counties this afternoon. We think the severe threat will be fairly minor tonight, but we can’t entirely rule out a storm or two trying to get a little excitable, particularly if it can develop east of the front. For folks in Galveston, Chambers, and Liberty Counties, this would be the primary way you would see rain tonight, from a rogue storm or shower ahead of the main action to the west. Not too serious a concern right now, but something we’ll keep tabs on.

More from Eric in the morning!

We’ve gotten into quite a groove lately with repeating rounds of cold fronts pushing through the Houston area. Since the beginning of November, I count about 13, give or take, individual cold frontal passages here in Houston. That’s about one every 3 to 4 days on average, although after some warmth in November the pace has accelerated in recent weeks. In fact, this is the first time since 2011 that we have not hit 80 degrees in the month of December at least once to this point. If you keep cold fronts coming at a quick pace, you really tend to cap how warm we can get in between. So this has been good for us in terms of keeping temperatures closer to normal for this time of year. And we have one, likely two more fronts coming over the next week.

Today & Saturday

It’s another chilly start to the day across the region. As of 6:45 AM, we had 30s north and 40s south (50s along the coast).

Bush Airport officially hit 35° this morning, but that was around 4 AM, and as some cloud cover has pushed into the area, temps have risen a few degrees. Skies should get progressively more cloudy today. Even with those clouds, we should be able to punch through the 50s and into the 60s later today, as building onshore flow pumps in warmer, more humid air. Some light rain or drizzle and mist will be possible along the coast and south of Houston by late afternoon or evening.

Overnight, we continue to see humidity build up, which should allow temperatures to either hold where they are or even warm a bit. No 30s tomorrow morning! Showers and patches of fog, mist, or light rain should begin to break out across the area tonight as well.

For Saturday, a period of showers and thunderstorms will be likely as a cold front begins to approach around late morning or early afternoon. Tomorrow should not be a total washout, but the majority of the morning looks unpleasant. Rain should shut off from west to east during the afternoon, though some of it could be heavy before it does so.

How much rain are we talking? Probably a half-inch or so on average. Some locations, especially east of I-45 could see higher totals with as much as 1.5 inches or so possible near Beaumont and Lake Charles. A few locations, especially west of the city may see less than a half-inch. Skies should begin to at least partially clear on Saturday evening.

Temperatures will top off near 70° before dropping back into the 60s or upper-50s during the afternoon behind the front.

Sunday & Monday

Look for nice weather to slowly emerge after Saturday. Sunday should see morning lows in the 40s for most folks. Low clouds may remain stuck over the area into Sunday morning, but by Sunday afternoon we should see clearing and sunshine. Look for 10 to 15 mph winds, and high temperatures on Sunday peaking in the low-60s.

We will see lows in the 30s and 40s Sunday night into Monday morning, followed up by a nice sun-filled day Monday with highs in the 60s. Some high clouds could begin to gray the sky a bit by Monday afternoon, especially south and west of Houston.

Tuesday

Tuesday should end up being partly to mostly sunny and warmer, with temperatures starting the day in the 40s and lower 50s and afternoon highs in the 60s, perhaps near 70° in some spots. Some clouds could gradually creep back in through the day.

Wednesday & Christmas Eve/Day

We’re continuing to gain confidence that a cold front is indeed going to come through the area before Christmas Eve. This likely means at least some showers on Wednesday. The timing of the front may have sped up some since yesterday, with some models getting it through Houston on Wednesday afternoon now. There seems to be an increasing chance that both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will feature sunshine, morning lows in the 30s or 40s, and daytime highs in the 50s. Winds will likely be a bit gusty on Christmas Eve, but they should settle down Thursday night, allowing Santa and his reindeer to have a smooth flight into Southeast Texas. We will have more on this for you Monday.

For those that enjoy Houston-style winter weather, it’s been a treat with a few exceptions over the last few weeks. We’re going to get more of that through next week beginning with the first in a series of fronts later today.

Today

It’s a quiet start this morning with just some clouds around for most. A few sprinkles or showers could develop by late morning. We then expect to see some kind of broken line of showers and storms develop ahead of our first cold front, and press through the Houston area beginning around early afternoon north and west of Houston, and by late afternoon south and east. It appears as though some degree of a “cap” is in place today, which may limit shower and storm development for a time, especially along and south of I-10. However, as the line of showers pushes in, some stronger storms are possible (especially to the north), and the Storm Prediction Center has us in a “marginal” risk of severe weather, the lower-end of the scale.

We don’t expect widespread severe weather, and it will likely be very much the exception rather than the rule, with gusty winds being the main threat.

Showers should end this evening, with partial clearing tonight. Temperatures will top off in the 70s this afternoon, dropping back into the 50s tonight.

Saturday

Nice weather should be the rule for most of us tomorrow. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies to develop, although clouds may try to linger, especially south and east of the city for a time. But for most folks, we think Saturday looks good. It’ll be a bit cooler with highs generally in the mid or upper-60s, perhaps a bit cooler north and west. Winds don’t look too bad behind tonight’s front, so expect north to northwest winds of 5 to 15 mph or so, though perhaps a touch stronger over Galveston Bay and the Gulf.

Sunday

Front number two will be the story for Sunday. Look for scattered showers and storms beginning as early as Sunday morning. Showers and storms should become more numerous through the day, ending around evening. This would be especially true south or east of Highway 59/I-69 we think. Not that areas north and west won’t see rain, but it looks a little less impressive there than to the east. It now appears that Sunday’s front may be the more aggressive one over our area, so if you’re looking to do something outdoors, Saturday is your day.

Total rainfall from the two fronts this weekend will likely add up to about a half-inch to an inch in most of the area. Some locations south and west of Houston may see a bit less and others north and east perhaps a bit more.

Sunday’s temperatures will start in the 50s and peak in the 60s or low-70s. Look for winds to pick up Sunday night to 10 to 20 mph out of the north, with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph over the bays and Gulf.

Monday and Tuesday

Clouds may linger into Monday behind Sunday’s front, giving it a real wintry feel. We will start with lows in the low-40s. Expect highs in the 50s with gradual clearing. If clouds do not clear by Monday afternoon, however, it’s possible we do not see high temperatures get to 50 degrees in spots. Chilly!

Tuesday looks great, however. Look for skies to become mostly sunny with a cool start. We’ll warm from the low or mid-40s into the low or mid-60s.

Wednesday and beyond

A third cold front is likely to push through the region Tuesday night or early Wednesday, ushering in another shot of cool, dry air. This one will lack moisture, so we don’t expect rain. We will see lows on Wednesday and Thursday mornings in the 30s or low-40s. Freezing conditions seem unlikely at this time. High temperatures will only get into the 50s Wednesday and maybe 60-ish on Thursday as it stands right now.

There are signs that perhaps a more aggressive and longer-lasting warming trend may develop by next weekend.That being said, the handful of times we’ve seen this over the last month or so, a cold front has magically appeared within those periods, shortening the warming to just a couple days. Will that happen again this time? More for you on Monday!

We are headed for a relatively quiet weekend in southeast Texas, after a lot of active, changeable weather lately. With the exception of a minor hiccup tomorrow, we are in for quite a stretch of weather. More in a second.

Yesterday, Eric touched on the recent rains being of benefit to our area, and the latest drought monitor update certainly highlights this. The Houston region saw drought coverage drop from near 90 percent a week ago to only 41 percent this week.

And in reality, it’s actually even lower than that, as the rains from Wednesday were not included in this update. So look for drought conditions to minimize even a bit more next week. We can stop discussing drought for awhile now.

Today

Look for sunshine for much of today. There will likely be some high clouds passing through at times, but it should not be much worse than that. We will see highs in the 50s with a bit less wind than yesterday.

Weekend

A more robust area of high clouds will overspread the area tonight. We’ll call it mainly clear, but by sunrise tomorrow, it could be partly to mostly cloudy. Moisture gradually increases tomorrow, and we will likely see some light rain or passing showers break out, particularly south of I-10. We’ll probably see a good setup for “virga” later tomorrow and tomorrow night as well, rain falling aloft but evaporating before it hits the ground. We’ve got enough moisture aloft, but dry air will still be attempting to win out at the surface. So if you check radar this weekend, it may look worse than what reality is on the ground.

Moisture begins to thin out on Sunday, which means we should see mostly sunny skies develop.

Look for lows in the 40s in the city and at the coast Saturday morning, with 30s in outlying areas. Highs on Saturday will struggle a bit due to cloud cover and may limp into the 50s in spots.

Clouds will keep lows in the 40s in most spots on Sunday morning, followed up by a nice afternoon with highs near 60 degrees.

Early next week: Glorious

Monday and Tuesday look sunny and rather pleasant. Expect highs near 60 degrees on Monday and perhaps a few degrees warmer on Tuesday. Lows should be in the upper-30s or 40s. Wednesday looks good as well right now. There may be a dry front that reinforces cooler, drier air over us Tuesday or early Wednesday, and that would also reinforce sunshine.

To be honest, at this point, Monday through Wednesday of next week will be cool days, but they may be some of the nicest you could ask for in winter in Houston.

Later next week

Onshore flow finally kicks back in on Thursday or Friday, which should allow for clouds and warmer temperatures to come back. We may also see some morning fog. Our next storm system should arrive around this time, bringing a chance of rain probably focused on next weekend. Our next front will probably follow at some point Sunday or Monday. More on that next week. Enjoy the weekend!