Matt Lanza

Bonafide winter has arrived in Texas, and we’re just getting started. This may be Texas’s most severe and damaging cold snap since the 1980s, and it’s going to come with a significant mess on Monday, so do read on.

Today

After yesterday’s fireworks via quite a few thunderstorms in the area, we expect today to be a bit quieter. There should still be some showers, and there may be some drizzle as well. But we aren’t expecting much more than a few hundredths to tenths of an inch of rain today, and some areas will stay completely dry. The best coverage of showers should be south and east of the city. With plenty of clouds, temperatures won’t go far today. Look for highs maybe getting to 40 degrees or so, low-40s if you’re lucky.

Note to those traveling north or west of Houston, as we get a lot of questions: There may be some patchy freezing drizzle well off to our north, especially this morning. So if you’re headed to Austin, Waco, or Dallas, be hyperaware of road conditions. Bookmark drivetexas.org for updates for the state and the Houston TranStar site for additional local conditions.

Saturday & Saturday night

Tomorrow will likely be a similar sort of day to today. Expect clouds, some showers, some light rain or drizzle, and cold temperatures struggling to get to 40 degrees or so. There could be a slightly more vigorous disturbance that pivots through very late in the day Saturday or Saturday night and brings more numerous showers. If that happens, there is the chance that areas north of I-10 get close to the freezing mark and freezing rain (ice) could become an issue.

This would likely be mainly focused on the nighttime hours. The Houston area should just see a cold rain, but if you have to make your way north of Houston for any reason after 6 PM Saturday, you will want to pay particularly close attention to any forecast updates this weekend. Lows bottom out in the low- to mid-30s.

Sunday

That Saturday night disturbance should exit stage right on Sunday morning, and the majority of Sunday looks dry but cloudy. Because of the generally drier conditions, we may be able to sneak into the low or even mid-40s on Sunday afternoon.

Sunday night through Monday afternoon

So, here’s where the troubling part of our forecast begins to emerge. As we’ve been discussing for days now, a strong disturbance and storm system are going to pass through the region on Monday morning. We are growing highly confident in wintry precipitation impacting almost the entire region, including the coast on Monday now. There is a good chance that travel may become close to impossible anywhere in the Houston area beginning early Monday morning.

Here’s what we know right now:

• Rain, or a wintry mix will develop on Sunday night.
• It will likely quickly transition to all freezing rain and/or sleet, except maybe at the immediate coast before sunrise Monday.
• Precip may be heavy at times Monday morning.
• Frozen precip will likely end as some sleet or snow flurries by early Monday afternoon.
• Ice and/or sleet accumulation is likely across much of the area.
• Temperatures will likely remain below freezing all day Monday, dropping into the lower 20s by afternoon.
• Winds will gust to 20-25 mph most of the day Monday.

Now, for what we really don’t know:

• Whether sleet or freezing rain will be the dominant precipitation type (snow seems mostly unlikely except well north and west of Houston or at the very end of the event).
• How much sleet and/or freezing rain falls.
• If there will be snow accumulation at the end.
• The exact timing of the storm. (still some 3+ hour differences among various weather models)
• How many power outages will occur.

Those first two points are very important, as there is a monumental difference in impacts between an all-sleet storm, an all-ice storm, and an ice storm followed by sleet. A couple inches of sleet is a nuisance, but it’s not severely problematic. A tenth to quarter-inch of ice with gusty winds and bitter cold could be extremely problematic. And a layer of ice caked over by sleet or wet snow is even more problematic. Unfortunately, we really aren’t good enough to predict winter storm precipitation totals to that specificity this far in advance. I can tell you that having looked at model data, they are loudly implying that a large portion of the area will be at risk for icing on Monday. This event will likely be problematic.

Much like flooding events, models struggle mightily when it comes to exact placement of the bullseye of a winter storm. But even putting that aside, any amount of ice on the roads here will make travel close to impossible, and that seems to be the direction we are heading for Monday.

So to summarize: A winter storm will impact the majority of the region late Sunday night through Monday afternoon with a sleet or ice storm being the most plausible outcome right now. We would strongly encourage folks to prepare to remain wherever you are from Sunday night through Tuesday morning. This forecast will change between now and then, and Eric and I plan to keep you posted all weekend long.

Monday night & Tuesday

The temperatures will be the big story once our storm exits Monday afternoon. We will likely see highs on Monday near freezing very early, dropping into the low-20s by afternoon. Those temperatures will continue steadily downward Monday night. The current forecast from the National Weather Service for Tuesday morning is shown below.

Yeah, that’s cold. We are expecting the city of Houston to bottom out at 15 to 20 degrees. The western and northern suburbs will likely fall to 10 to 15 degrees. Bay Area and coastal locations will be around 20 degrees, give or take. If we were to somehow see accumulating snow on Monday, you could probably subtract another 1 to 3 degrees from these values at least. The last time Houston officially hit 15 degrees? December 1989.

Tuesday will see sunshine at least! We should break out above freezing by late morning. The combination of the sun and temps in the mid-30s should allow us to melt most of Monday’s ice. We hope.

It’s worth noting that this won’t be just an extreme cold event in terms of temperature. It will also be so in terms of duration. Temperatures will likely drop below freezing in Houston on Monday before sunrise and not make it above freezing til mid or late Tuesday morning. This will easily be a 24 to 36 hour stretch of subfreezing temperatures for Houston, with a longer-duration north of the city. It has been over 30 years since Houston has seen this kind of cold weather. You absolutely need to prepare your home for the impacts. Reliant has provided some very useful advice below. You can also read more cold weather prep tips here, here, or here.

Later next week

I’ll be honest with you: I don’t even want to think about later next week right now, but the reality is, more headaches are likely. Another storm system is likely to impact the region on Wednesday into Thursday. This will also potentially carry a potpourri of precipitation types. Whether we see snow, more ice, or just plain rain remains to be seen. More cold will follow, and although we are unlikely to see the teens again, there is some chance we have another hard freeze (mid-20s?) by Thursday or Friday mornings. We’ll get more into that Sunday or Monday.

Note from Our Sponsor:

As Houstonians are prepping their attire, gardens, pets and plans for the freeze, Reliant wanted to share some tips on prepping your home to stay warm during the expected winter weather.

Stay Warm Tips:

Here are a few things you can do immediately to reduce energy consumption and still stay comfortable. Best of all, they’re simple and free.

• Let the sun in. Open blinds and shades during the day and remove any solar screens so the sun can warm your home.
• Check your thermostat settings. For every degree above 68°, you can expect a 3-5% increase in your heating costs.
• On vs. auto. Ensure the fan on your thermostat is set to “auto” not “on” to prevent it from running 24/7.
• Close heat escape routes. Be mindful of how often you’re using bathroom or utility room ventilation fans and ensure the damper on your fireplace is closed when not in use, as heat can escape from your home through these outlets.
• Set your ceiling fan to rotate clockwise. This helps force warm air down from the ceiling into the room to create a more comfortable environment in colder seasons.

Home Prep Tips:

A few home improvement projects can help keep your heating system from working harder than it needs to.

• Consider installing a Nest programmable thermostat. This can help you reduce energy usage by up to 15% without lifting a finger.
• Eliminate cold air leaks by weatherstripping exterior doors and windows. This is a relatively quick and inexpensive way to help save up to 10% on total energy costs. A few additional places to check are pull-down attic stairs, dryer vents and exterior wall outlets.
  • Try the paper test: Open an exterior door, insert a piece of paper and close the door. If the paper comes out easily, the gap is too large and can contribute to cold air leaks.
• Get an annual heater tune-up. Make sure your furnace or heat pump is clean and in good working order, so that it can run as efficiently as it should.
• Check your insulation. Ultimately, a home without proper insulation and weatherization can lose up to 40% of heated or cooled air.

Check out more on winter weather prep and common causes of high winter electricity bills here.

It was officially 80 degrees yesterday in Houston. We fell one degree shy of the record high at both Bush & Hobby on Thursday. Today will not be a repeat of that, not by a longshot.

Today

It’s starting off in the 50s and upper-40s this morning, and honestly, temperatures may not go very far from these values today.

Today is going to be one of those chilly, raw, damp winter days here in Houston with off and on showers or light rain, a lot of clouds, and a bit of a breeze.

We could use a little rain, so hopefully we can snag a couple tenths of an inch here or there through the day. Look for showers to diminish tonight, with partial clearing and lows generally in the 40s, though a few spots up north could drop into the upper-30s.

Weekend

Tomorrow will start similarly kind of gray. We should hopefully see breaks in the clouds during the afternoon. And we’ll see complete clearing once another cold front sweeps in Saturday afternoon or evening. Ahead of that front, look for highs in the 60s tomorrow. A chilly night is on tap for Saturday night with lows dropping into the 30s and 40s. Sunday looks spectacular. Expect a lot of sunshine, high temperatures in the 60s, and light to moderate winds.

Monday through Wednesday

Onshore flow will kick back in late Sunday, so Monday morning will not start off nearly as chilly as Sunday morning. Look for morning temps in the 50s, with a few upper-40s scattered about. Clouds will be with us on Monday as well. Despite the clouds, temperatures will surge to near 70 degrees.

The forecast begins to fall off the rails Tuesday with some changes since yesterday. A cold front is projected to get close to Houston by Tuesday afternoon. Models differ dramatically on the timing and orientation of the front through Wednesday and even Thursday, with the GFS model stalling it in our neighborhood and the European model suggesting it stalls well offshore. A map of forecast dewpoints for Wednesday shows this well.

This obviously has implications on everything from temperatures to cloud cover to fog potential to shower chances for next Tuesday and Wednesday. If the front clears, expect highs in the 60s or 50s Tuesday and Wednesday, with lows in the 40s Wednesday. If the front does not clear, expect highs in the 70s, perhaps well into the 70s and lows in the 60s, along with fog at the coast or even into the city. Normally, I’d say the cooler outcome is probably correct, but the GFS model tends to have a bias where it’s too fast with fronts pushing offshore so seeing it be opposite of that gives me a little pause. At the same time, models tend to struggle with the type of cold air masses we are expecting in our region by midweek next week, bringing them in too slowly. So the forecaster’s conundrum is in place next week, and either outcome seems perfectly reasonable. We’ll have a good bit more clarity on Monday.

Late next week

The forecast really goes off the rails later next week. All we can tell you at this point is to expect unsettled weather and potentially the coldest weather of winter. Models have taken a bit of a dramatic step colder since yesterday for next weekend, with most reliable model guidance indicating a freeze, if not a hard freeze will be possible focused on Saturday or Sunday. Whether or not that actually happens will depend on how the potential for rain or wintry precipitation exactly plays out next Friday and Saturday. I think Eric’s 20 percent call on snow risk is still reasonable, though I think I might unfortunately call it “snow OR ice” right now. I wish we could be less vague, but this period has been in flux for several days. Either way, we believe you will want to continue to monitor the forecast for the end of next week and weekend in the coming days and be ready to implement your cold weather preparations later next week. It’s been a minute since we last saw 20s in Houston in February, last occurring back in 2014. A reminder that, although rare in recent years, it can absolutely still get quite cold this late in our winter. Much more to come on this.

Good morning, and it’s a cool one across the region. Temperatures this morning ranged from the 30s north of Houston to the lower and middle 40s in the city to the low to mid-50s at the coast.

That cool weather will be departing later today and tonight — temporarily.

Today

We are already seeing broad onshore flow begin to resume at the coast, with low clouds moving into Galveston and southeast Harris Counties and humidity inching upward. That will be the trend today. Expect sunshine with some periods of clouds at times, perhaps becoming a bit more noticeable later today. We should manage the low-60s or a touch warmer in spots for highs.

Tonight & Saturday

Clouds become more established tonight, and we could see some light rain or drizzle in spots, in addition to some patchy fog late tonight at the coast. Temperatures won’t go very far tonight, and in fact they may rise out of the mid-50s toward daybreak across the region. We’ll end up in the upper-60s to low-70s tomorrow despite a good bit of cloud cover.

Our next cold front will approach the region late tomorrow. Expect showers to accompany it, but we are unlikely to see any sort of significant rain from this. It’s also entirely possible that your neighborhood sees no rain at all.

The current official forecast calls for no one seeing more than a tenth of an inch of rain. We think that’s reasonable, as this front will mostly just serve to usher in cooler, drier air and gusty winds for Sunday. Speaking of…

Sunday

On Sunday, you’ll definitely know that a cold front has moved through. It will be breezy to windy and cooler. Sunday’s temperatures will warm from the low-50s in the morning to the mid-60s, give or take in the afternoon. Winds will be blustery out of the north at 15 to 20 mph inland, gusting to perhaps 25 mph or so over the water. The better news is that it looks bright and sunny for Sunday!

Monday & Tuesday

More sunshine is expected on Monday. It will be a cool morning, with lows in the 30s and 40s, similar to today and yesterday. Afternoon highs will get up into the 50s or lower 60s. Tuesday looks very similar to Monday with sunshine and temperatures about the same in the morning but perhaps a few degrees warmer in the afternoon.

Later next week

We should see a warming trend and return to onshore flow on Wednesday and Thursday. Clouds return, as do some fog and rain chances. But our next cold front is slated to arrive Friday, which should bring some widespread rain and then cooler, drier weather for the weekend. More on this one Monday!

It’s been a gloomy few days here in the Houston area, between overcast skies or fog or showers or drizzle. The bad news is that it continues somewhat today, but the good news is that the end is coming for tomorrow. It won’t be a brilliant, totally sunny week, but it will be a lot nicer than what we’ve had recently.

Today

We have the clouds this morning, but there is definitely less fog around than in some other recent days. Tough to find any location, even at the coast, with less than 5 miles of visibility this morning.

So that’s a good start. There are some showers around this morning already, none of which are particularly heavy, but expect sort of a dreary start to the day, with low clouds and light rain, heavy drizzle, mist, or a shower. A narrow band of slightly heavier showers may try to roll in with the cold front itself, late this morning northwest of Houston and around midday in Houston itself. The front should get to the coast by late afternoon.

You’ll know when the front passes by a wind shift and about a 5 to 10 degree temperature drop. We’ll reach the low-70s north and west of Houston before the front and the mid to upper-70s south and east of Houston. So the change behind today’s won’t be too dramatic initially.

Where you’ll really notice the change will be tonight, as temperatures drop into the upper-40s to mid-50s for low temperatures by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday

Tomorrow won’t be perfectly sunny, but it will surely be a bit nicer than it has been. Look for a mix of sun and high clouds tomorrow, with high temperatures pushing back close to 70 degrees or a touch warmer.

Wednesday

A second cold front, this one a bit stronger, will push across the region on Wednesday morning. It will probably be a dry front, however. Look for a breezy day, with gusts of 15 to 20 mph out of the north. It will be sunny, but there will be a good deal of high cloud cover likely around at times to dim the sun. This should keep us in the mid to upper-60s for highs, after starting the day in the low to mid-50s.

Thursday & Friday

Expect more high clouds on Thursday, along with some sunshine. Friday may see the high clouds disappear, and it will likely start off sunny before some lower clouds roll in later in the day as onshore flow returns. Low temperatures for Thursday and Friday morning will likely average in the low 40s, though it will probably be in the upper-30s north and maybe upper-40s southeast of the city along the coast. For the daytime, expect cool upper-50s to low-60s on Thursday, followed up by mid-60s on Friday.

Weekend

It’s a bit early to say too much about this coming weekend, but it appears somewhat similar to this past weekend, with a good deal of low clouds, perhaps some patchy fog, and at least some shower chances, albeit low ones right now. We may see a cold front swing through the area by Sunday morning or afternoon, however, which could clear us out a bit and yield a nicer Sunday. Temperatures will be warm, with 70s for highs and 50s or 60s for lows. We should be back in the 40s on Monday morning behind the front, however.