Matt Lanza

Since Wednesday’s cold front, Houston has had 50 consecutive hours of dewpoints below 60°, which continue as of 7 AM Friday. Recall, dewpoint is a much better gauge of “comfort” in summer than relative humidity, and for Houston anything below 65° generally feels really nice this time of year. Anything in the 50s is very comfortable. To put in context how rare an event this is in Houston in summer. We have only done 40 consecutive hours of dewpoints in the 50s in June, July, or August two other times since Bush Airport was established as the official reporting station for Houston in 1969:

• June 8-9, 1996 (43 consecutive hours)
• June 24-28, 1974 (110 (!) consecutive hours)

It appears that this one will place firmly 2nd on the list. This air mass would be a first ballot inductee to the Hall of Fame of Comfort for Houston summers. And it continues.

We do have a couple things to monitor. This dry weather is going to have an impact on soil moisture in much of Texas. We’ll discuss that more in-depth next week. In addition to that, this dry, offshore breeze is certainly aggravating for allergy sufferers (raises hand). But other than that, we have little to talk about.

So in lieu of much text today, our forecast will be shared primarily in gif form.

Today & weekend

It will be tough to let go of the current weather pattern. Thankfully, this weekend won’t be too bad!

Expect highs in the 90s and lows in the 60s or low 70s this weekend, with continued low humidity for June. Sunshine and nil rain chances.

Next week

Onshore winds resume Monday, and that means our friendly neighborhood Houston humidity will be on the rise.

But it won’t be that bad of a week.

Alright, yeah, it will end up being a pretty hot week. Look for mid-90s at least, with lows in the 70s.

The next chance of any meaningful rain at all, outside of a localized downpour? Maybe next weekend?

We’ll check back in with you on Monday with more. Enjoy the weekend!

Yesterday was Houston’s hottest day since May 20th. We hit 94° on Thursday, and that’s a preview of things to come. We have no real changes in our expectations that Cristobal (now a depression) will miss to our east. The main impact from Cristobal in Houston will be heat, thanks to drier air on the western fringe of the storm.

Today

Expect a quiet Friday overall. We’ll start with some patchy low clouds or fog in spots but transition to partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Highs will be in the low-90s for Houston, cooler at the coast and hotter inland. Yes, a few showers or slow moving downpours could again flare up with daytime heating, but we expect most of the area to stay dry.

Saturday

Rinse and repeat. Cristobal will still be well off to our southeast at this time, and we should see mostly a repeat of Friday’s relatively nice (albeit hot) summer weather. Perhaps one or two will see a cooling downpour, but most will not. Highs will again average in the low- to mid-90s.

Sunday

As long as Cristobal keeps tracking toward central or western Louisiana as expected, that would likely mean a dry and hot day on Sunday. Expect mid-90s.

I try to view things as optimistically as possible, so I’ll just add here that while Sunday will likely be hot, it will be a little less humid than we have been of late. So we’ve got that going for us, which is nice.

Showers on Sunday? Probably not many. Part of Cristobal’s cloud canopy could be noticeable east of I-45, which could mute temperatures a little in those areas. But rain would probably stay in Louisiana on Sunday.

See full post

More storms impacted the region yesterday, mostly on the south and east sides of Houston. Thursday’s star of the show was a supercell over Galveston Bay that produced nearly 70 mph winds on the Texas City levee and multiple waterspouts in the bay.

Galveston Bay @NWSHouston pic.twitter.com/SzGfNBT8XT

— 🇺🇸madstork🦅 (@baldbear87) May 28, 2020

Wow!

Friend sent this photo from La Porte, TX around 2:30. pic.twitter.com/fPfu90MLk5

— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) May 28, 2020

We see waterspouts fairly regularly around here, but this was one or two levels above a typical one. Really impressive structure and intensity with that storm. Thankfully, this remained over water, though it did come very close to producing a tornado on Galveston Island.

We also do think that this pattern of nasty, over-productive daily thunderstorms has begun to wind down. Houston starts the transition to something very summer-like heading into the weekend.

Today

With the upper level storm that’s been sitting off to our northeast, we’ve been stuck in a pattern with winds aloft out of the northwest, bringing disturbances our way each day that have helped to invigorate our daily storms. That upper level system rockets off to the north and east today, integrated into a passing disturbance over the Great Lakes. Along with that, the amount of atmospheric moisture available is a little lower today, and the forecast of instability on the models is also substantially lower. I think that should be enough to limit just how widespread and strong showers and storms can get this afternoon.

So what does it mean? It does mean another chance for showers or a thunderstorm today, however they should be somewhat kinder and gentler than those of the last few days. The highest chances today will be close to the coast or off to our east. That doesn’t mean a shower or storm can’t happen elsewhere; it’s just more likely closer to the sea breeze. We will see a mix of clouds and sun otherwise. Humidity will be low for this time of year, which should allow high temperatures to get to near 90 degrees this afternoon without much trouble.

Saturday & Sunday

We should settle back into a typical summer type pattern of sun, clouds, hot weather, and perhaps a brief passing shower. High pressure starts to flex, which will really drop the rain risks. The best odds look to be mostly toward Matagorda County, Wharton County, or southern Brazoria County. Unlike the last few days where we’ve seen storms blow up, anything this weekend would probably be slow to develop and max out maybe as a brief downpour and likely nothing worse. Humidity will increase a bit further, and we’ll see highs again around 90 degrees, give or take. Saturday and Sunday morning’s lows will be around 70 degrees, a little warmer at the coast and a little cooler farther inland.

See full post

Storms have exploded northwest of Houston today with numerous reports of large hail, up to as big as golf ball size or larger. As I write, this large hail is possible near Bryan in the Brazos Valley.

As a result of this, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been hoisted for the entire Houston area through 9 PM this evening. The main threat will be between now and 6 PM I think, however. These storms near Bryan-College Station are hauling south and east around 20 to 30 mph, and new storms are trying to blossom out ahead of them.

2:20 PM – Severe-thunderstorm warned storm moving into the BCS area capable of producing golf-ball sized hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.

📍Easterwood Airport
📸 Conner Pierce pic.twitter.com/0kW9NwVew0

— Mia Montgomery (@KBTXMia) May 27, 2020

The main threat from today’s storms is likely to be large hail. Not everyone will see hail, but those that do (most likely along and north of I-10) could see hail to the size of golf balls or even a little larger. The hail threat today is legitimate. A secondary threat will be strong winds, capable of knocking down trees or power lines in spots. A very small tornado threat is there, but it’s not especially high at this time. We’re focused on hail and wind today I think. Heavy rain is also possible from any of these storms.

While the severe threat should fizzle after sunset, we may see additional rounds of showers or even some thunderstorms into later this evening. We’ll update again if things look more significant. But please stay weather aware through this afternoon and evening.