Well, so much for the high pressure that was supposed to tamp down on rain activity Thursday. Despite the influence of a ridge to the west of the region, some pretty strong showers still popped up over Houston, dropping as much as 1.5 inches near the Waller-Harris County line Thursday. I think we’ll be in for a similar pattern this weekend in which perhaps only 30 to 40 percent of the Houston area receives rainfall in any given day, but those areas that do see showers could experience some briefly heavy rainfall. Welcome to the game of rainfall roulette.
Mostly sunny skies this morning should allow temperatures to push up into the low- or even mid-90s by early this afternoon, and this will be warm enough to help generate some scattered showers and thunderstorms.
High resolution modeling suggests these storms will initiate around 2pm or 3pm and then wane by or before sunset with the loss of this daytime heating. Rainfall could be briefly heavy under some of these storms, potentially making something of a mess during the evening commute. However, we don’t have any flooding concerns beyond the usual mess on streets. Lows Friday night should fall into the mid-70s.
Saturday and Sunday
The weekend forecast looks more or less the same as Friday. High temperatures could come down a couple of degrees, to around 90 to 93 degrees, but we’re still looking at a pair of partly to mostly sunny days with the potential for showers or thunderstorms. The coast is probably slightly favored over inland areas in terms of rainfall, but in truth showers could pop up quickly pretty much everywhere on both Saturday and Sunday. Average rain accumulations will be less than 0.5 inch, probably, but that doesn’t mean much if one of the heavier storms pops up over your head. Bottom line: If you have outdoor plans, have a contingency to duck inside somewhere.
Probably a drier day, with only isolated showers, and highs in the low 90s.
Tuesday and Wednesday
A surge of moisture will push inland from the Gulf of Mexico, pushing rain chances on both days up above 50 percent. For now, almost all of the available guidance holds rain accumulations at 0.5 to 1.5 inches. We’ll have to watch this, however, due to the potential for heavier showers with the available atmospheric moisture. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Our early look at the holiday suggests conditions will turn drier on the July 4th holiday, and our preliminary outlook for fireworks is good. More on this Monday.