Is this Houston’s last night in the 50s for at least five months?

In brief: Houston may be experiencing its last truly chilly night until next fall. (That was painful to type). After this we’ll be transitioning to warmer weather, with temperatures eventually reaching the upper 80s this weekend, with a persistent southerly wind. Rain chances increase a bit on Sunday, and a little more on Monday.

Final night in the 50s?

This is not a firm prediction, but rather an informed guess. Temperatures this morning are in the 50s across Houston, with even a few spots in the 40s, such as Conroe and Cleveland. But alas, this could be our final fling with such cooler weather. In fact, it would not surprise me if we do not see another chilly night like this for five or more months.

It is pleasantly cool this morning across much of Texas. But summer is coming. (Weather Bell)

Why is that? We certainly can see cooler nights in May, before the real onset of summer. But lows in the 70s are much more common in May than lows in the 50s. Last year, Houston saw its final springtime night in the 50s on May 1. We did not touch the 50s again until October 8. This year I don’t see any evidence of a cooler night during the next 10 days, at least. Hopefully we won’t have to wait all the way until October again.

Tuesday

Winds are now firmly coming from the south, but it will take some time to replace the drier air mass that has been in place since Sunday. Accordingly, we’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds today, with highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees. Moisture levels will rise, and by this evening it will start to feel fairly humid. Winds will be light, generally only 5 to 10 mph, from the south-southeast. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 60s.

Wednesday

Temperatures will be a bit warmer, in the low 80s, with a bit more humidity. I think skies will mostly clear out in the afternoon, allowing for a fair bit of sunshine. Overnight lows will only drop to about 70 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

Windy and warmer. Both days should see highs somewhere in the mid-80s, but the bigger story is likely to be increasing onshore winds. They’ll blow from the south at about 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph on Thursday, and perhaps 30 mph on Friday.

Sustained winds on Saturday will be 20 mph from the south-southeast, with higher gusts. (Weather Bell)

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should be even a bit warmer, with highs pushing into the upper 80s, with partly to mostly sunny skies. The other story will be continued breezy conditions. Winds look to peak from the south-southeast on Saturday, gusting to 35 mph, but we still could see gusty conditions on Sunday. This should provide a pretty epic tail, or cross-tailwind for Texas Bike MS 150 riders this weekend. One thing to watch for on Sunday, especially for the aforementioned bike riders, is some showers to the northwest of the Houston area, generally north of the The Woodlands, and west of Katy. Rain chances in Houston itself, on Sunday, are lower and probably on the order of 20 percent.

Next week

The forecast models diverge in terms of their solutions for next week. The GFS model keeps us in the upper 80s, with only scattered showers. The European model is a little bit cooler with better rain chances area-wide. As we’ll be in want of some rain by then, I’m hoping for the latter solution. We shall see.

15 thoughts on “Is this Houston’s last night in the 50s for at least five months?”

  1. It’s time to bring back some optimism to help get us through the summer of 2024! In May of 1973 we experienced lows in the 50’s fifteen times, the last coming on 30th of the month when it bottomed out at 57. So if it happened before here in the Bayou City it can happen again right?

    • In May, 1973, there was a lot less concrete and a lot more trees. The tallest building in downtown wsd most likely the white Shell Building. The Woodlands and Kingwood were mostly forests. There was no Sam Houston Tollway and no Hsrdy Tollway, etc., etc.

        • Not unless we grow more trees. In my neighborhood where once every street had an arbor canopy, residents have been cutting down trees at a prodigious rate because they don’t want to bother raking leaves. Houston and Harris County desperately needs a tree ordinance.

    • In May, 1973, the 610 Loop may not have been completed by Gulfgate Malll. A couple of younger neighborhood brothers would skateboard the Gulf Freeway and the Woodridge overpasses on the uncompleted 610 Loop.

  2. Seems I have heard this prediction a couple of times already this spring… keep guessing, you’ll get it right eventually.

  4. Any chance us MS150 riders can get a sentence or two about La Grange weather on Saturday night and La Grange to College Station on Sunday in the next few days =) ?

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