In brief: We have now reached mid-September and a summer-like pattern remains largely in place across the state. Does this mean September in Houston is actually worse than August?
Is September bad, or not?
Matt and I routinely debate whether August or September is the worst month in Houston. I say August because it is guaranteed to be sizzling hot, and there is no hope for respite. Matt argues that September is worse because it holds the false promise of fall, when it fact the region typically does not experience meaningful cooling until October. Alas this September is doing me no favors, with statewide temperatures running well above normal and fall nowhere in sight.
This week offers a meaningful example. Last week the models were teasing us with a cool front around the Friday or Saturday period, but now as we get closer to that time frame we can see that, at best, we are going to receive a slight push of drier air. That’s not what we all wanted, but so it goes with phantom fronts in September. Anyway, I still think September is better. I like the slightly cooler daytime highs, and with shorter days the evenings cool off a little faster. But September is definitely not fall in Houston.
Tuesday and Wednesday
With high pressure more or less holding on, we are going to have a pair of mostly sunny days with high temperatures in the mid-90s. We should see a puncher’s chance of showers on both days, with perhaps a 20 percent chance south of I-10, and slightly less inland. Winds will be light, generally from the southwest. Overnight lows may briefly drop into the upper 70s.
Thursday
We are going to see a surge of atmospheric moisture on Thursday, and this will bring a few more clouds in the sky and improved potential for some rain. Shower chances are probably 50 percent for areas south of I-10, and 30 percent for areas further inland. With more clouds, high temperatures for most of the region should max out in the lower 90s.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
We are likely to see some slightly drier air this weekend, but set your expectations to “low.” We should see mostly sunny skies this weekend with highs in the low- to mid-90s thanks to slightly lower humidity. Nights may be a few degrees cooler, with lows in the mid- to upper-70s. Rain chances will be near zero. Mornings and evenings will be tolerable outside, if not overly pleasant.
Next week
Similar weather continues next week. After a dry weekend, some slight rain chances may return by the middle of next week. As for a front, maybe there’s something to watch for eight to 10 days from now? But we are still in the “hope” stage rather than the “expectant” stage.
