Summary: The atmospheric setup looks favorable for severe weather after midnight tonight, especially for the northern half of the Houston metro area. It’s the kind of night when you may well be awoken by thunder and lightning, and heavy rain. After this, a front sweeps through on Wednesday to bring us some of last truly chilly air of the season.

Tuesday

It’s a warm morning, and the Houston-area radar is fairly quiet. We are likely to see some showers today, with the possibility of a few thunderstorms mainly north of Interstate 10. However, it now appears as though the threat of stronger thunderstorms will wait until late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. We may see a bit of sunshine later this morning, but skies will turn mostly cloudy this afternoon, and this should help to limit high temperatures to the low 80s. Winds will be gusty from the south-southeast, at times exceeding 30 mph.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning

A surface front associated with an upper-level system will spur the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms overnight. Although the details are not yet entirely clear, it appears as though a mass of storms will congeal to the west of Houston sometime after midnight, and move through the metro area between 2 am and 8 am on Wednesday morning.

The overall environment is favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms, with plenty of atmospheric lift and convective energy. Generally, the potential for severe weather will be higher north of Interstate 10, but the entire metro area is at some risk for storms. What does that mean? It’s the usual mix of threats in Houston: Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. These storms will also produce heavy rainfall, so some locations could quickly pick up 1 to 4 inches of rain, briefly flooding streets.

On our scale of excitable dogs, I expect tonight to be an 8 out of 10, as these storms wake our furry friends.

Wednesday

The worst of the weather should clear the area, from west to east, by around sunrise or shortly afterward. Winds will turn westerly, and I expect clearing skies by late morning. Highs will be in the upper 70s, and later in the day it will turn increasingly breezy. Northwesterly winds will likely gust up to 30 mph or higher through the overnight hours. Lows will drop into the 50s in Houston with the influx of drier air.

Thursday

This will be a lovely spring day. Expect dry air, with highs in the upper 70s. Winds will die down a bit, with some gusts still reaching 20 mph. Thursday night will likely be the coldest of the week, with lows dropping into the low- to mid-50s. This may be the coldest night until late September or October, in fact.

Friday

A sunny, calm day with light winds. Expect highs in the upper 70s, and lows a few degrees warmer than Thursday night. This will be the last day with really dry air.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will see a warming trend, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. Expect highs in the low 80s on both days, with increasing levels of humidity—although nothing too crazy. Southerly winds will be breezy, with gusts perhaps on the order of 20 or 25 mph. But overall, it will be a mild spring-like weekend in Houston. Plan outdoor activities with confidence.

Next week

While the details remain fuzzy, most of next week should be fairly warm and humid. Expect highs in the mid- to possibly upper-80s, with warm nights in the 70s. We’re still going to see some more fronts this season, but they’re no longer going to arrive with any regularity. So it goes in April.

Summary: We’ll see mostly cloudy skies today with a chance of storms. The risk is higher north of Houston, so please take that into account if you’re chasing the total solar eclipse. Tuesday should be stormy in Houston ahead of a front on Wednesday morning. After that we’re sunny and cooler for a few days.

A bummer of an eclipse, with some storms

A total solar eclipse is the most spectacular astronomical event that most people will experience in their lifetime, and today offered a golden opportunity for people living in Texas. Unfortunately, much of the state will be socked in by clouds, from South Texas through Central Texas along the path of totality. It is possible that some areas of north Texas, particularly north of Interstate 20, will see a break in the clouds during the early afternoon hours to view totality. But even that is no certain thing.

On top of this there is the potential for severe weather this afternoon and evening in central and northern Texas. This is likely to occur after the eclipse. However, if you’re traveling back to Houston late this afternoon or evening it is possible you will experience some severe weather. The primary threat today is hail, but some tornadoes are also possible. Again, this severe weather is less likely to occur in Houston, but if you’re traveling north of the metro area please be weather aware this afternoon, evening, and tonight.

Monday

Houston’s air has plenty of moisture today, and with a disturbed atmosphere overhead we’re going to see some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Skies will be mostly cloudy, so your chances of seeing a partial eclipse here are not great.

In Houston the Moon begins to move in front of the Sun at 12:19 pm, and will reach its maximum coverage at 1:40 pm CT. At that time, in the city, 94 percent of the Sun will be covered by the Moon. The event will end at 3:01 pm. Despite the mostly overcast skies, we may seen enough breaks in the clouds to briefly view the partial eclipse. You must wear eclipse glasses when looking directly at the Sun.

Scattered showers will be most likely in central and southern Houston this morning before lifting north, with the potential for stronger storms in Montgomery County and points north this afternoon and evening. Highs, otherwise, will be near 80 degrees in Houston today with humid air and, at times, gusty southerly winds. Rain chances should be lower tonight before resuming early Tuesday morning.

Tuesday

At this point it appears as though the chance of severe weather in the Houston metro area will be greater on Tuesday, perhaps with an initial round of pre-dawn storms moving in from the southwest, and another system later in the day or overnight. The potential for severe weather will be greatest for areas north of Interstate 10, but all of the area will be at risk for damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado. This threat will likely extend into the early hours of Wednesday morning.

Aside from the potential for thunderstorms, this will be another warm and muggy day, with mostly cloudy skies and highs around 80 degrees. Winds will again be breezy from the southeast. Lows on Tuesday night will likely only drop to around 70 degrees.

Wednesday

Finally, on Wednesday, a decently strong front will surge into the area. I’m not super confident in the details, but this is likely to result in a final line of showers and thunderstorms early on Wednesday, followed by northwesterly winds and much drier air. Skies are likely to begin clearing during the late morning or early afternoon hours on Wednesday. Highs will again reach 80 degrees, but with lower humidity. Lows on Wednesday night should drop into the upper 50s.

Thursday and Friday

These look like a pair of fine, sunny days with highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees, and ample dry air. Lows will drop into the upper 50s to about 60 degrees. It’s a damn shame we cannot delay the solar eclipse a few days.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The weekend will be a little warmer, and a little more humid, with a fair amount of sunshine and highs in the low 80s. At this point I don’t see much of a signal for rain. Next week looks warmer and muggy, with highs in the mid-80s, or possibly even upper-80s. It’s a sign that, in the not too distant future, we’ll transition from spring into summer.

We’ll begin today with the tropics. Colorado State University released their annual April hurricane season forecast yesterday. It was pretty impressive. They call for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. This is the most active April forecast that they’ve released. This is another signal ahead of the upcoming season that suggests a very busy summer awaits us. I wrote all about the forecast and what you should take from it over at The Eyewall. Busy forecast don’t always translate into busy forecasts for Houston. However, we encourage you to prepare this season, as you should each season.

Today

We’ve got one more spectacular day with low humidity. We’ll warm from the 50s and low-60s this morning well into the 80s this afternoon. It’ll be warm for sure!

But the humidity will be tolerable. Lots of sun means ozone production, so, yes air quality will be an issue this morning and late this afternoon.

Weekend

We will trade off a couple degrees tomorrow for higher humidity. We’ll also begin to add back some more clouds. Look for highs in the lower half of the 80s after morning lows in the 60s. Expect similar temperatures on Sunday but with more humidity and a slightly warmer morning.

On Sunday, the cold front that will play a role in the eclipse forecast will approach from the west. It should push through the Brazos Valley, and it may even get as far south and east as Brookshire, Cypress, or The Woodlands. From there, it slams on the brakes and throws things into reverse, moving back to our north and west, reaching back to I-35 by Monday morning. Besides clouds, there will probably be at least a few showers in the area Sunday as this front maneuvers.

Monday & solar eclipse outlook

As far as Monday’s eclipse goes, we don’t have any real positive news to share today unfortunately. Here in Houston, we have maybe a 10 to 15 percent chance that skies will be clear enough for good viewing. Those odds may be even lower for Austin and San Antonio.

If you absolutely want to chase this thing in Texas, your best bets may be Texarkana or Dallas, where there’s currently about a 30 to 40 percent chance that skies will be favorable. Still not great, but better than much of the rest of the state. Do keep in mind that North Texas is highlighted for potential severe thunderstorms on Monday, however. If you are able to road trip, southeast Missouri or southern Illinois look favorable on Monday. If time, money, and logistics are no object, northern New England or New Brunswick and Quebec in Canada are your best bets.

Weather-wise, locally expect plentiful clouds and isolated to scattered showers Monday. A thunderstorm or two will be possible in the afternoon, especially north of Houston. Highs should be in the low-80s with high humidity.

Rest of next week

The pattern is setting up such that Tuesday looks stormy to our north. Expect a few showers or thunderstorms locally, but I don’t think we’re going to see a whole lot around here Monday night and much of Tuesday.

That could change Wednesday. Somewhere in Texas, we’re likely to see a robust area of thunderstorms (what we call an MCS in meteorology, mesoscale convective system). This would probably develop somewhere in the I-35 corridor on Tuesday night and ride southeast across the eastern half of the state and into Louisiana on Wednesday.

We are highlighted under Tuesday’s severe weather risk for this reason (it would most likely be toward Wednesday morning), as well as Wednesday’s risk. It’s a bit too early to pinpoint details or how much rain we might see, but if you have plans Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, keep an eye on this forecast. Things should calm down a good bit and turn much less humid to close out next week.

Summary: In this post I go a bit deeper into the forecast for Texas locations on Monday, during the solar eclipse. Otherwise, Houston faces a couple of more sunny days before we cloud up and warm up this weekend, with increasing rain chances on Monday and Tuesday of next week.

Eclipse weather

On Monday, when we last discussed the overall pattern for cloud cover during the Solar eclipse on April 8, I described the outlook for Texas as “fairly grim.” Unfortunately, three days later, the overall forecast is pretty much the same. This applies both in Houston, where the Sun will see coverage of 94 percent by the Moon, and more broadly in Texas where the path of totality runs along much of the Interstate 35 corridor and includes major cities such as Austin and Dallas.

The overall pattern for the state of Texas is such that we’ll be under a generally southwesterly flow in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, and this will transport a lot of moisture that will result in high clouds as well as possibly a layer of lower clouds. Here are some city-by-city outlooks:

Houston: At the time of the solar eclipse, 1:40 pm CT, skies are likely to be 80 to 100 percent covered by clouds. It may be possible to see the eclipse with solar glasses at times during the nearly three hour period that the Moon moves in front of the Sun.

Austin/Central Texas: Cloud coverage is likely to be in the 70 to 90 percent range. Austin will see a total eclipse for 1 minute, 41 seconds. The odds of this moment being observable with clear skies is therefore fairly low. But it is not non-zero.

Dallas/Northern Texas: The outlook in northern Texas is a little better. Dallas will see the eclipse for 3 minutes and 50 seconds. Cloud coverage is likely to be in the 60 to 80 percent range, with at least a thin layer of upper clouds. Because of the longer duration of the eclipse, the chance of observing at least a few moments with a clear view of totality is therefore higher.

Since there are still a little more than four days until the total eclipse there remains some variability in the forecast. However, the outlook for Monday has been fairly consistent, so our confidence is increasing in this rather drab outlook for Texas during totality. In general, the rule is likely to be that the further north one goes in the state, the better. But only slightly better.

Thursday

It’s a shame the eclipse won’t be today, as we’re going to see crystal clear skies across Houston and much of Texas. With dry air in place we’re likely to see highs of around 80 degrees today, with light southeasterly winds. Lows tonight will be a few degrees warmer than past nights, dropping to about 60 degrees.

Friday

Another fine, sunny day. Highs will be a bit warmer, likely reaching the mid-80s for most locations. The air will still be reasonably dry, but humidity will be on the rise by Friday evening. Lows drop into the low 60s.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will see at least some sunshine, to go with highs in the low 80s. One downside will be fairly pronounced southerly winds, gusting up to about 30 mph in response to an advancing front (which is likely to stall before reaching Houston). Lows on Saturday night will only drop to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Sunday

Skies will turn mostly cloudy, and we’ll see some isolated or scattered showers during the afternoon hours. Highs are likely to be in the low 80s. I can’t rule out a thunderstorm, but most of us should just see clouds. Lows remain warm on Sunday night.

Next week

As noted above, Houston should see mostly cloudy skies on Monday, and that pattern will continue into Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. This period should bring us continued warm and humid air, as well as increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. In terms of accumulations we’re not looking at anything too crazy, but most of the area could see between 0.25 and 1 inch of rain. A weak front should arrive midweek to cool us off (a bit) and bring some clearer skies.