In brief: This post recaps the macro conditions that set the stage for our strong to extreme storms during the month of May. The week ahead looks warmer, with highs in the low- to mid-90s, but possibly some slightly lower humidity by the weekend. Rain chances are low for awhile.

May storms

The month of May ended over the weekend, and in Houston we will remember it as one of the stormiest spring months in memory. I don’t have all of the answers for why strong storm system, after storm system rolled through Houston bringing violent winds, some hail, and occasionally some tornadoes. But as we look how the month of May ranked, temperature-wise, we can glean one big clue.

For the Houston area, the month generally ranked among the 10 warmest Mays on record. However, when we look at the western United States, particularly Colorado and Wyoming, we see colder temperatures. This is important because storm systems that develop in the Great Plains states, and then sweep eastward and southward, are driven by both geography—where the mountains meet the plains—as well as temperatures. That is, the collision of warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico with the colder air of the northwest United States is the cauldron in which mesoscale convective systems are born. This May, that temperature gradient was sharper, creating an environment in which the clash of these air masses produced still more violent storms.

Monday

Today will be similar to Sunday, which is to say that skies will be partly sunny with high temperatures generally in the low 90s. Winds will be from the south at 10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts. Houston isn’t entirely out of storm territory, but anything that develops in Houston should be isolated, and rain chances are likely only about 10 percent. Further north, along and north of Highway 105, storm chances this afternoon and evening are a bit higher. Tonight will be warm, with lows only briefly reaching the upper 70s for most locations.

Tuesday

Skies will be mostly sunny on Tuesday, with highs in the low 90s. There’s a bit of uncertainty, as there are hints of another modestly organized storm system in the models approaching the city on Tuesday morning. However, I’m fairly bearish on this actually happening, so I expect we’ll remain dry. But it’s possible we’ll see a few showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours. Winds will again be from the south, but perhaps gustier, up to 25 mph or so.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These will be warmer and sunny days, with highs in the mid-90s. Do you like summer in Houston? Then you’re in luck. Rain chances aren’t zero, but they’re on the order of 10 percent each day.

Saturday and Sunday

A slightly drier air mass may work its way into the region this weekend. Highs are likely to still reach the mid-90s, but the humidity may be slightly lower. (You can see this reflected in the wet bulb globe temperature forecast for the weekend). Lows should get down into the mid-70s in parts of Houston, so the evenings may feel that bit more comfortable.

Next week

I don’t feel particularly confident in the forecast next week, but some rain chances may return to the forecast by Monday or Tuesday. Nothing crazy, mind you. But after a sunny week and weekend, some rain probably would not be unwelcome.

In brief: While the probability of severe weather is lower today, the Houston region is still likely to see the development of storms later this morning, lasting through the afternoon hours. Please be weather-aware if you’re out and about today.

Welcome to June, and the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season. Speaking of which, on our companion site The Eyewall, Matt lays out some reasons by you should be wary, but not decidedly worried about what’s expected to be a frenetic season. The good news is that things look quiet for now.

Today’s weather may not be quiet in Houston, however. As of 9:30 am this morning, a mass of showers and thunderstorms has developed to the southwest of Houston, near Palacios and Matagorda Bay. Generally, I expect these storms to lift to the north-northeast into the metro area later this morning and throughout the afternoon hours.

What does that mean? If you have activities planned from around 11 am to 7 pm today, you should be weather-aware. Considering variables such as atmospheric instability, I don’t think we’re looking at bedlam. Yes, there’s the potential for small hail or damaging winds, but conditions are not ideal for severe weather. So it’s a possibility. Perhaps a bigger concern is that some of the storms today may be slow-movers, so a few parts of Houston may see some rain bullseyes of 2 to 4 inches and some street flooding. For most of us, however, I think the impact will be less. In any case, it does appear as though things will start to clear out with the loss of daytime heating this evening.

I don’t feel overly confident in the forecast for Sunday, but it does seem possible that we could see some scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, again, with daytime heating. Coverage should be less than today. If the forecast changes significantly for later today or Sunday, we’ll update as warranted. If not, we’ll see you on Monday morning.

In brief: Expect quiet weather this evening, but the Houston region is likely to see another round of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, and possibly Sunday as well before high pressure takes control.

Good afternoon. The round of strong to severe thunderstorms that worked its way through Houston this morning has helped work over the atmosphere such that we’re seeing quiet conditions this afternoon. Due to this more stable atmosphere, we are likely to see continued fair weather this evening and into the overnight hours—which is good news if you have outdoor plans, graduation celebrations, or other activities.

The question becomes, then, what happens on Saturday?

Although Friday night into early Saturday morning will most likely be calm, that does not mean we’re done with storm chances. It looks as though we’ll see an additional round of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Some of these could become severe, but I anticipate they will be less severe than those on Friday morning, with the main threat being damaging winds, and possibly some slight chances for hail. In terms of timing, I expect these storms to flare up during the mid-morning hours in coastal counties before spreading inland. Heavy rainfall may briefly cause some street flooding. I’m hopeful we’ll see a reprieve in stormy weather on Saturday evening, and again during the overnight hours.

As for Sunday, storm chances will diminish, but I’m not ready to write them off entirely as high pressure won’t really be in place yet. Another round of showers looks to be possible, but not overly likely, during the morning hours of Sunday. The rest of next week still looks mostly sunny, with highs in the low- to mid-90s.

We’ll have another update on Saturday morning to fine tune the storm forecast.

In brief: Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds will push across the area through the morning. Street flooding and some scattered power outages are a good possibility. Additional storms are likely this weekend.

This morning

A squall line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms is moving into the area as we post this. Heavy rain, frequent lightning, localized street flooding, and wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph are a good bet as this pushes through.

While these storms are not quite as severe as what we saw back on Tuesday this week, this will likely set the day off on the wrong foot. It wouldn’t be the worst idea to delay your morning commute until these pass. Most wind gusts have been 35 to 45 mph recently as these pass, which is relatively standard for strong storms here. Still, given the area’s sensitivity of late, some scattered power outages may occur in parts of the area.

This afternoon

The morning storms will clear off to the south and east. Since the timing of these storms clearing occurs in the morning hours, the atmosphere may not have enough time to recover this afternoon. While I wouldn’t rule out additional showers or thunderstorms in spots this afternoon, the worst of the action will hopefully be confined to the morning. After a rain-cooled morning, temperatures should recover into the 80s this afternoon. Eric will update later today on any changes.

Tonight & Saturday

Look for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms tonight or Saturday. The exact timing and location remain frustrating to us in terms of predicting. But we are not done yet, that much we know. Some model guidance has a fair bit of storm activity tonight and Saturday, though mostly not severe and rain-focused. But this will be a period we continue to watch for storminess.

Sunday

Support for thunderstorms should be about ready to exit starting Sunday. I still think there’s enough juice and disturbances left to fire off another round of storms around the area, along with heavy rain and perhaps gusty winds. But the hope is that these will become a little less frequent. Highs in the 80s to near 90 degrees, lows in the upper-70s.

Next week

Storms have tended to move around the periphery of a ridge of high pressure over Mexico that has provided them with absolutely punishing, extreme, record heat this month. As that ridge expands a little next week, we should see storms lift back to the north some each afternoon or evening. So favored areas will be north toward Huntsville or even north of there. We’ll see an uptick in temperatures with low-90s possibly shifting toward mid-90s by mid to late week.

The more noteworthy item for next week will be a disturbance or even some kind of cool front that arrives later in the week. If that happens and pushes off to our south and east as shown, there is the chance that we set the stage for much, much nicer, less humid weather for a couple days next weekend. I would not rule out a morning low in the 60s in the Houston area at this point next Friday or Saturday. It’ll still be plenty hot each afternoon, but the mornings may be refreshing. Maybe. We’ll see!